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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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01-26-2017, 08:57 PM | #11 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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work up
Quote:
I will get to the next step shortly I have already got good feed back so thank you. Bill |
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01-26-2017, 09:17 PM | #12 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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This
this is a small field. So the winner being in the top 5 TPR off the last line
means little in this race , but i always run the last lines and the winner is just about always in the top 5. Another helpful trick I get from this step is to look at the top tpr numbers here the 7 and 4 get 178's So I would think the winner of this rce will be in the range of a 178, |
01-26-2017, 09:55 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Pace lines
Here are my pace line selections
Pace lines Horse 1 , Its 3 best TPRs are 176.5 177.0 and 178.7 Recent form does not indicate a 5 point improvement is likely today. Line 1 is + race with a slight drop in class today. The line is a off track but with a 11 DTV but I will use it Horse 2 Back off a 37 day layoff, Its best TPR's are 179,twice 179.5 and 178.8 in the last line at the same class level and distance no reason to go past line 1. Horse 3 Off 50 days. Its best TPR's are 175.2 178.7 175.9 but recent form is a issue. In these cases of a horse off a layoff, I look at a similar layoff patterns I will use line 4 line from a gd LRL race afer aa 39 day layoff. Horse 4 Our fulcrum horse Fresh off a 29 day layoff 'freshener' Its best TPR's are 176.2 177.5 176.2 and 178.2 i will use line 2 only because the 178.2 maybe because of the off track and I am worried to give a best ever line to a horse off a layoff with no workouts. So Line 2 Horse 5 Best TPR's are 180.5 178.7 and 180.5 I will use line 2 for the exact same reason as horse 4 except horse 5 has run 180 before and I will excuse the sly line 1. So Line 2 Horse 6 Best TPR's are 182 179 and 177 twice Same race as the 4 and 5 and again I excuse the Sly line 1 and will use line 2. Horse 7 Best TPR's are 178, 179.5 and 175.9, This is a dangerous horse. The last line could have a higher tpr but for a not so hot 83.4 LPR . This horse has form issues. It ran a 92.5 EPR against CL 10's but faded, first back off a layoff, Now today its back again off a layoff plus its dropping below its claiming price I will use line 1. |
01-27-2017, 07:44 AM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Analysis and Betting
Okay, I hope you have really looked over the race slowly
and followed my steps , so far This is how I do every race, I also will use the RX 3 and VDC readouts in RDSS. If my TPR analysis needs me to make final decisions. I did not use them here cause the person who requested this race only uses phase 1 Final analysis The top 2 TPR horses are the 5 and 6 with 180.5 and 179.0 The 2 is close with a 178.8 There is a little gap to the next horses #7 and #4 with a 175.9 and 175 The 1 and 3 look out of it in this match up The 1 is not in the the top 3 in EPR, or LPR The 3 has the 3rd best LPR but based on the Fulcrum por, The 3 looks like it will be too far back at the EP with only a 83.4 Betting I don't know what final odds were so I will use the Morning line The best EP horse is the 7, Based on the ml of 10/1 and I feel a improvement in the LPR is possible with the drop It would be my first bet mm :/ but this is a neg dropper If i got 8/1 or higher I wold bet the 7 other wise I would look to the top 2 TPR horses #5 and 6 I will go check the results and post them in a while Good skill Bill |
01-27-2017, 11:58 AM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Missed
Well win or lose, This is how I handicap I would have done this race, in this exact same method
I would have lost, because I made the decision to move off the last line The winner # 2 was the 1.6 ML favorite but went off at 2.80/1 The winner had the best TPR off the last line, so naturally the winner of this race like so many other comes from one of the top 5 tprs just from the last line. The POR was 46.4 which shows the fulcrum method in action . Sorry no winning trumpets this time My win bets finished second and third The 7 off the neg drop went off at 11/1 and was out of the money Till next time Good Skill Bill |
01-27-2017, 03:36 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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Bill,
I would like to see how you would have used RX3 and VDC with this Doesn't matter if you won or lost race just showing how you go about doing it is what matters the most. If you would have boxed top 3 horses you would have hit exacta I did pick up from this something I should do is pick contenders first then pacelines, some others have told me the same Nice workup of race Jeff |
01-27-2017, 04:01 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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Bill,
You had the Tri and Super as well Also noticed how big of a gap between top 3 horses and 4th Jeff |
01-29-2017, 08:12 AM | #18 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 44
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That was very interesting Bill, thank you for your time and knowledge.
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