"The Hat's" Power Lines

[Turbulator]

You guys lost me on this one. CT is a bullring. I don't understand how you can compare pha and crc to ct time wise without making adjustments.

Plus the 4 doesn't have a sprint race anywhere in it's PPs.

Do you just accept the times and that's it?

I wouldn't have had this one, and I'm still scratching my head. Normally I'm better with OTE races than E races.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Turbulator

You guys lost me on this one. CT is a bullring. I don't understand how you can compare pha and crc to ct time wise without making adjustments.

Plus the 4 doesn't have a sprint race anywhere in it's PPs.

Do you just accept the times and that's it?

I wouldn't have had this one, and I'm still scratching my head. Normally I'm better with OTE races than E races.

The 4 has two sprint lines showing on the screenshot Steve. THE question that has to be answered is this: Is the race going to run early(the 4) or other than early.

Emilio,"Mu",Voodoofan,
Can you help Steve with the rest of his question since you all won the race.

Richie

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by RichieP

THE question that has to be answered is this: Is the race going to run early(the 4) or other than early.

Richie

Let's start there. Is the 4 the only speed?

If yes, why can't he wire it?

[mufasa]

Startin right off the bat--yes the #4 in the lone speed IMO.

Rich I will take a crack at it.

Forgetting about bull rings, adjustments, etc and just going by the given contenders and power lines chosen:
*the #4 horse in its line 4 showed the best speed to both the first call and the half mile in a sprint and IMO would be the lone early for this race. [Actual race proved that.]
*the #2 horse in both power lines shown demonstrated that it can over take the best of what the #4 horse had shown in its power lines. It did so both in a sprint and I guess more importantly in a route. In the route the #2 showed two power moves one into the half mile of the race and the other into the top of the stretch. Both PM’s were done against faster times then what #4 has shown in its chosen power lines and especially significant (IMO) since it was a route. Now in the sprint again #2 showed two PM’s with one in the top of the stretch and the other in the stretch itself, both times either picking up position and lengths on the leader or as to the stretch drive improving position. All against a much faster half mile of the race then anything the #4 horse has shown.
* Because of the Match Up analysis of the #2 horse versus the assumed lone speed of the race #4--generally as predicted-- the #2 horse started to move on the #4 horse after the half and was able to pass him going into the stretch because it was truly a faster horse. [Actual race proved this late move capability to be a well grounded assumption.]
*I believe adjustments/Voodoo could have been done to at least one of #2’s power lines to show that it would be faster to the half mile then the #4 but I did not do this since it was pretty obvious the #2 horse was faster.

I certainly am no expert in the Match Up Methodology but strictly adhering to “The Hat’s” concepts without interjecting outside noises (type of track, variant, track to track adjustments, etc.) one can seize such a nicely valued winner.

I hope I explained my thoughts on this particular race satisfactory--thanks,
[I wish my handicapping using the MU Methodology could be so clear going forward as this one is when now looking back.]

Robert

[Turbulator]

Richie,

I appreciate all that you're doing, but I'm confused by a very specific thing here. Let's see if we can get to the bottom of it.

OK, I dug out the racing form for this race and looked at it all in context.

I can see why you like the two, and I can also make a case for him. In fact, after reading the posts and looking at the screen shots, and reading others analysis I like him a lot.

His last two races he didn't get on top of HIS fractions, but an excuse can be made because those were 1 1/8 mile races. OK.

But I'm still confused about something.

My biggest problem lies with the four. He is the only speed. Isn't that something we look for? Lone earlies. Only speed. I graple with these kinds of horses. The first question you must ask yourself is can the four wire this race? Well, he has in the past. Four races back he did. It looks like in his last race he got bothered. Is he a all of a sudden a quitter now? The two got the lead one time in his PPs and that was in a route race. So you wouldn't think the two would bother him on the front end--he has to press to win the race.

So are you saying because the two is a faster presser that will negate the four's early speed? Is it because the two will be right on top of the four making him run even faster and therefore causing the four to quit? I can understand that. Does that also mean that if the two wasn't in the race that the four would win?

But horses who look like this four do win races--they do run wire-to-wire. Four races back he wired a 7 furlong race at CT where he was 1st by a head at the first fraction--a fighter.

If I don't think the four can wire the race, then I can definitely see that the two is the next best horse--making him the best horse. But in all honesty I can also see where I might have overlooked him--because of his last three races. (It's a little easier when you are looking at the proper pace lines of all the contenders together. It becomes a bit more problematic when you have to look at everybody's PPs in context.)

It's horses like the four that give me my biggest headache using the MatchUp. When will they wire the race and when will they quit--or just flat out get beat.

Do you see my problem?

Thanks

[mufasa]

As to post #80

Quote{Today in the BcrosbyH I have used strictly my thinking on the MU to select the #2 and #4 but mostly the #4 as my preference to win the race. This is strictly on what you have thought us during the past week and my thinking on it. I have not downloaded any Trackmaster data today so this is all MU thinking. So win or lose I intend to do an exacta box on 234 and no more since today is family day.}end of quote


Rich:

I really blew the BC Handicap this past Sunday. I was just using MU analysis and I believe I had the race correctly pegged as to being an OTE. There was so much speed in the race and to me the winner was going to be someone who can come off the pace with a strong 3rd fraction. I had made two big mistakes in this race with the first being I straddled the fence by keeping #2 as one of my win bets and the second big mistakes is that I allowed the MLO odds of #4 to cloud my fair analysis of both the #3 and especially the #6 horses. I know about could have and should have and I will not go into this here but lesson learned is that from now on I take a stand--Early/Late and hide the MLO’s.

Robert

[gl45]

Steve,
what if the #4 will wire? Why not box both horses, 2-4, if you have a strong opinion about the #4. You couldn't decide wich one to select as a winner, and you did miss a great opportunity to cash on an ex.
lbj

[emilio840]

Hi Steve. Do be honest with you I do the ALPHA MEDITATION the one that they mention in one of the followups and when I do it I am very relax and I start reading the form on my computer and in that race from CT I noticed that the #2 was almost 2 sec faster going around 2 turns in a route. And I hcp this race to be both E/ OTE. Because the #2 can take the lead at the 2nd call he did it before and won. I think the Hat calls this Hidden Early. So, I figured that this horse could have won either way. (after I do this meditation I do not recall reasons why I pick certain horses to win.)

There was another OTE that won the 9th at Del. This one paid over $20. This was a much easier race to hcp.

In the other race that I bet that ran OTE I lost it. It was the contest race and I lost it by a NOS.

[Turbulator]

(Race 3, Saratoga July 25) bet the 1. Gets killed. Loss . Hat LOVED the winner at 15.20 btw

I'd love to see Jim's workup of this race. I just dug out the form and took a look at it.

No horse has raced at Saratoga, and you've got shippers coming in from CD, DEL, AQU, BEL, and CRC.

(I would have gone with the one also. My second choice would have been the two--a reverse of the tandem, and the best closer. Damn. I just looked it up. The two wins, but I don't think I would have bet him.)

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

This is gonna sound unreal but it is true. In 13 months of learning Jim's matchup I have NEVER heard him use the word "form" or the term " is he in form?".

I am SERIOUS! I don't think he knows what that is man

He ALWAYS uses terms like
a) slow horse
b) changed his style
c) can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could

see that last one Robert? THAT is something he FOCUSES on big time.

Trying to put you guys "in his head" so to speak. Really consider FOCUSING on "c".

Richie

I think, Turbulator, you need to focus on this quote. You asked the right questions, is it Early or Other Than Early? and Look for the horse who "Needs-to-Lead". Can he go wire to wire TODAY???? ANSWER:NO. WHY?.... 1)He WAS a Fighter , not anymore cause...
2)He had an UNPRESSURED, EASY LEAD at much slower fractions, and FAILED MISERABLY, NO EXCUSE. 3)The Power Line concept says, he has become a slow horse 'cause he cannot get on top of fractions he previously could. 4) I forget sometimes, too, but Mr. Bradshaw, to paraphrase said, "....Lone Early DON'T always win. A Lone Early that can maintain it 'till the end of the race wins." 5) With just (2) races, one being his Power Line, HE'S getting worse, slower, can't fight off ANY pressure,backs up with and EASY lead at much, much slower call and going backwards in form. 6) To continue the paraphrase of Mr. Bradshaw, "....that's an On-the-Lead SLOW horse. A presser will get behind him an press him all the way to the barn. He'd wish he had his oats right now, 'cause he won't be able to eat'em later. He's gonna go into oxygen debt." 7) To paraphrase again, "....if a horse goes around a TURN FASTER than a horse going straight, who has the best speed?" 8) Only a few tracks has, according to Mr. Bradshaw, has distance peculiarities. Read the chapter titled "The MatchUp Guys" to quiet your mind about track to track and adjustments. As Mr. Bradshaw says, "A horse is a horse." 9) To paraphrase the Master again, ".......that horse had better be running in MUD UP TO HIS NECK before you talk about adjusting him and putting him in your computer....Thats a SLOW horse!! Slow horses beat slow horses,....fast horse's WIN races."........"yeah, adjust him,.....adjust him OUT of the race!" 10) Tom Brohammer once said, "compare apples with apples." Any track, don't matter. A (1) turn mile going against a (2) turn mile. Either use another line, or did the the (2) turn miler run as fast as the (1) turn miler? If Micheal Jordan played a college basketball player, on any gym at any country, Jordan would demolish the dude, no adjustments are necessary. Only if the dude,say, can dribble on a 'muddy" gym floor or 2 feet under water, he may have a chance against the skywalker. 11) Once you have determined he is a slow horse, Lone Early or not, throw him out like Richie does, then look at your contenders who's left. 12) We all experience in some manner, what you experience...too much information and/or conflicting information to focus on the race. 13) Rich says, "Quiet your mind". Also, not only dont look back on lost race's, but dont look back at what "used" to happen when you "did" or "did'nt" bet "this kind of horse" or "this kind of race" or "these shippers", etc,. VoodooFan