Kentucky Derby Day

[Bill V.]

Hi Sureshotlink,Giahorse and Lonespeed

The reason I did not post some horses even with plus last race pace lines
is that their TPR numbers are too low.
As we see Golden is far above the rest. Using the next group of horses
clustering at 177, if we use the Pace Makes The Race suggestion using as contenders horses within 5 points in TPR, both Orb and Itsmy both coming from the grade 1 FLA Derby just don't make the grade. Orb is close but with Golden so much higher and so many others ahead of it I drew the line and
eliminated ORB

As far as using other pace lines, I can't think of how a horse
who runs 1st 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1 -2 race can ever have a valid excuse to move down to a older pace line.

[sureshotlink]

Nice presentation and I Agree!

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Sureshotlink,Giahorse and Lonespeed

The reason I did not post some horses even with plus last race pace lines
is that their TPR numbers are too low.
As we see Golden is far above the rest. Using the next group of horses
clustering at 177, if we use the Pace Makes The Race suggestion using as contenders horses within 5 points in TPR, both Orb and Itsmy both coming from the grade 1 FLA Derby just don't make the grade. Orb is close but with Golden so much higher and so many others ahead of it I drew the line and
eliminated ORB

As far as using other pace lines, I can't think of how a horse
who runs 1st 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1 -2 race can ever have a valid excuse to move down to a older pace line.
Attachment 34195

Thank you for your explanation B.V.

I agree on pace line choice. the only time I used a second line back to rate a charge in the KD was manarcos off Florida derby line....In the wood he tried keeping up with a fast pace set by congoree if memory recalls. It was not his usually running style.

[atkinsrr]

I have a couple of questions for you guys...correct me if I'm wrong... #I remember reading in one of our old manuals or in a follow-up that we should only use pace lines that are within an 1/8 mile of todays distance..I've been looking thru my manuals and can't find it. Is this a guideline from one of the older programs only?
Is this guideline being used my most of you ? Sometimes in the derby you might need to use an 8 1/2 F line which is more than 1/8. #2 in follow up #41 page 57 "Doc" writes Never enter more than 9 beaten lengths at any call. The computer will
advantage a horse who gains more than 9 B.L. Again there are horses in this years field who have 11 or 12 B.L. in their last 2 lines...is this also a guideline just for older programs such as Thoromation ...Pace Launcher...Synthesis ??? Comments are welcome from you G 1 guys who are familiar with the older programs....

[atkinsrr]

Hi Bill V. thx for the post on TPR...I see you eliminated ORB and ITS MY from the Fla Derby line...when I run synthesis the same thing happened..for some reason I keep trying to get ORB in here like using his second line back...Sometimes the SR and TV from DRF really affects these ratings...i.e. if ORB runs that same race at AQU in the Wood using that DRF SR and VAR he comes up on top...am I reaching to much here? I keep thinking about what happened last year when I did everything I could to get IHAnother in the mix.and missed out on a huge P4 that I had going into the Derby. Santa Anita had just taken out AW surface and put dirt back in and I was getting low SR-VAR off that track all year in 2 turn dirt races...I'm hoping with our RDSS download we can clear up some of the uncertainty in this race, this is a tough one...but hitting this thing can give us massive profits for the year...also the race before the derby is the Woodford Reserve...Wise Dan is running..I guess that will be a single on most tickets, but if he loses that late P4 will be a monster payoff....good skills to all

[Bill V.]

There was a guideline with the older programs of not entering a
beaten length of over 9 This was because Doc felt that a horse beaten by
more than 9 was not running its best effort and that such lines would alter
the program readouts .

I am doing lots a checking but nothing I can gather conclusively
yet however I have been checking of past derby winners
and I am seeing few from 8.5 lines as most of the grade 1 -2 derby
preps are at 9 furlongs
will investigate further.

Bill

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by atkinsrr

I have a couple of questions for you guys...correct me if I'm wrong... #I remember reading in one of our old manuals or in a follow-up that we should only use pace lines that are within an 1/8 mile of todays distance..I've been looking thru my manuals and can't find it. Is this a guideline from one of the older programs only?
Is this guideline being used my most of you ? Sometimes in the derby you might need to use an 8 1/2 F line which is more than 1/8. #2 in follow up #41 page 57 "Doc" writes Never enter more than 9 beaten lengths at any call. The computer will
advantage a horse who gains more than 9 B.L. Again there are horses in this years field who have 11 or 12 B.L. in their last 2 lines...is this also a guideline just for older programs such as Thoromation ...Pace Launcher...Synthesis ??? Comments are welcome from you G 1 guys who are familiar with the older programs....

Your question reminds me of Charismatic last win at a mile and one-sixteenth. I almost missed this horse for the same reason. As doc states some failed to recall that until the recent pass no 3 yrd old vying for a derby spot was allowed to run in a race of more than 8.5 furlongs.it was changed to a max of 9f..SO WHAT??...equalized. Adjusted and normalized all lines and gives appropriate penalty to horses running in shorter routes.

Success to all!

[trotman]

Ok we have mentioned Charismatic's win in the Derby and I'm sure by the tone it wasn't a winner by the software. I would like to see the printouts of that Derby because my partner and I hit Charismatic heavy that day and our numbers had him closing a ton.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by trotman

Ok we have mentioned Charismatic's win in the Derby and I'm sure by the tone it wasn't a winner by the software. I would like to see the printouts of that Derby because my partner and I hit Charismatic heavy that day and our numbers had him closing a ton.

I remember Charismatic's win emphatically. It was my 2nd largest Derby payout ever, using Synthesis if I remember correctly - closed like a freight train on one of the Late-oriented readouts. My biggest payout came a few years later - Giacomo, using Speculator. Same deal. (Won a nifty VDC Messenger ball-cap for that pick in Bill V's contest, too.)

Great times

Ted

[trotman]

Ted great work and you mentioned Synthesis, is RDSS 2.0 all of everything in the Sartin tool box and now we use 2.0 only. I ask this because so many on this site are using the older programs as a add on or a verification, not really sure what the motive is behind it. If I came to this site I would be somewhat skeptical that what I was paying for was not it because your members have a for lack of a better word fondness for the older programs and they seem to state this quite often.