Picking Contenders & Pacelines

[cody]

screen shot

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by cody

TOTAL ENERGY

Can some one explain this to me it has me baffled,and i see it often.I always thought the faster the pace the higher the total energy,but yet I
always see races where horses run a crawling pace and there T E is much
higher.example GP R 5 the 1 horse,line 1 crawling pace high energy,line 2 faster pace low T E,which pace line do I use,I know this horse is not making the lead today.

Thanks Cody

"Total Energy (TE), when not otherwise qualified, refers to the Total Energy of the Horse: the sum of the 3 fractional velocities of the horse itself (F1+F2+F3 velocity = Total Energy; i.e. the velocities of the horse itself, adjusted for lengths gained/lost). We show 2 Velocity screens: PoH and PoR - and the difference between the 2 is that the Horse (PoH) is adjusted for beaten lengths gained/lost while the PoR screen shows the velocity resulting from measuring the running times of the front runner at each point.

It is important to note when a horse has faced a fast PoR (perhaps the fastest it has ever, or recently, faced). If the horse shows a credible run against such a fast pace, closing steadily, finishing in the money or up close at one or more points, you can also infer that it is in some kind of shape (of course, facing a healthy PoR in tis recent races is all relative to what PoR's other horses have faced too). You see the PoR shown to the right of the Original Screen, and on the PoR Velocity screen.

Otherwise, all Total Energy (TE) readouts are the Total Energy of the horse itself, and are ALL identical - they do NOT differ over the different screens."

[Bill V.]

Hi Cody

Here are the PP's with the POH screen added
Line 1 has a fast total energy because
The horse was able to jog along alone on the lead in a slow pace
It had plenty of energy in the tank and ran one of its best ever 53+ fps 3rd fraction
Since the total Energy is the F1 + F2 + F3 it ranks high
This is kind of why total energy is just a corrolary
to use with other readouts

[cody]

Thanks Hoof and Bill,which paceline would you use 1 which would put him
many lenths behind the leader even though he a p6 or line 2 which would
put him closer to lead,which is the way he likes to run.

Cody

[Hoof 11]

Personally i would use the second line, it ran a peak performance in it's last race and has not shown in the past to be able to duplicate consecutive races. I look at the Adj. Speed ratings and the Total Energy, and you can see the horse has a threshold of 80 on the speed rating, and a 162 on the Total Energy. She generally runs the same distance and stays somewhat within the same class level. I would have to see the other runners but i would say it is unlikely that she is going to win but i would definately use her underneath.

[Bill V.]

I would use line 2 Its a plus raceand its recent
In todays expected Match Up I dont see the 1 getting such a
slow pace The 4 and the 9 are Early or EP sprinters

here are the EPR and TPR numbers for all the horses last line
From what I see here Its more likely that the 1 will be a EP
in todays race and have to use its energy more on the early side of the
E/L graph

[lone speed]

So the question is which line is best.......I have learned through experiences and through trial and error, that for my procedures.....

It is best to let the program that I am using to choose the best line depending on the race level...for example, I am not going to use a Grade 1 winning line in a Grade 3 race or in a Classified Allowance race....

Most of the time, we can guess so wrong through our observations of the pacelines.. I say let the program choose the line so we can learn what the program favors.....what type of energy horse does it require to finish in the top two in the readouts...

Here are some examples....let's use some Derby horses







For the Derby, old Sartin programs always favors the high sustained energy lines....

In the case of War Emblem, we can outsmart ourselves right out of the race to assume that War Emblem crawled through soft fractions in the Illinois Derby and that in the Kentucky Derby...it will never see the lead....But is important is that huge 3rd fraction...It depends....

Going extra distance in its next race, high sustained horses can convert their high sustained energy into dictating the race with early energy to control the race....JMHO...

[lone speed]

Here is the past performances of Fort Larned in this year's Breeder's Cup Classic....









The third paceline back was the best line as it was a huge sustained energy race especially for the mile and a quarter distance....I understand that my comments run counter what some have posted...but it is from my experiences and from the Sartin programs that I have studied and evaluated...

Good skills

[For The Lead]

Here is race 5 from PEN today.
The reason I picked this race is because it has A TON of early speed horses in it.
It is a field of 8 starters and there are no less than 6 early types.
In this type of race it is not unusual for handicappers to look for a horse that comes off the pace, with the idea that a speed duel will weaken the front runners and a closer will pick up the pieces coming down the stretch. As I have mentioned before, this is a scenario that seldom plays out the way it seems. Instead, one of the early types will dominate the early pace. This relegates the other early types to chasers, a position they don’t like. This race played out in this fashion. I’ll go over the field now.

This is a Starter Allowance race. To be eligible, a horse had to have started for a claiming price of $6,250 or less since March 1, 2012.
#1 – last line. It is a “+” race from 22 days ago. It is a race across the same track and at a similar sprint distance.
#2 – last line. It is a “+” race from 16 days ago. There is no choice here. Every race in the horse’s PP’s are from FL, so it will have to do.
#3 – no line. I prefer not to use lines from CT and I especially don’t want to use lines from CT from 4.5 furlong races. Please note, I will not go back to line 7, which is a race at a similar distance across the PEN track. THAT was THEN. THIS is NOW! For those who are interested, I did put this horse in off its’ last line, just to see. It ranked no better than 3rd in the early mix. I also use line 7 and it ranked worse.
#4 – no line. Its’ only two races in the last 90 days are quite dull.
#5 – last line. It is a “+” race across today’s track just 9 days ago at today’s distance.
#6 – last line. It is a “+” race across today’s track just 23 days ago at today’s distance.
#7 – last line. It is a “+” race across today’s track just 26 days ago at a similar sprint distance.
#8 – last line. It is a “(+)” race across today’s track just 22 days ago at a similar distance.

I have marked up areas of the various screen shots to point out the attributes of the winner, as well as noting the multitude of early horses in the race.

The winner, #8, paid $8.60.

[For The Lead]

Here is an interesting race from PEN today. It is the 2nd race on the card.
Like the race I posted yesterday, it is filled with early type horses, but there is somewhat of a “twist” to this race or, at least, how to go about handicapping it.

Yesterday’s race was straight forward. Almost every horse had a good last line. All the horses had recent races. There were no real issues.

In this race, today, two of the early horses have not run in quite a while. One horse was off 161 days and the other horse was off 186 days. For those of you who read my posts, you know I eliminate horses that have been off this long, but these two horse are early horses and although they probably won’t win, they may still have an impact on the race. How will we know unless we put them in and see how the other early horses in the race stack up against them? Or, maybe they don’t matter if they aren’t the best early horse anyway. We’ll just have to put them in and see what happens. IN NO CASE WILL THESE HORSES GET BET! In fact, before finishing the handicapping process, they will be eliminated. Depending on what we find, the race will either be betable or, perhaps, the race should be passed. We’ll find out.

Here's the rundown on each horse.

#1 - line 2. last race was the first race across the track at the current meet. This is right out of the Paceline Manual.
#2 - SCR
#3 - no line. as stated above, the last line will be used just for evaluation. this horse will not be bet or considered as a contender.
#4 - no line. as stated above, the last line will be used just for evaluation. this horse will not be bet or considered as a contender.
#5 - no line. I have no excuse for the last line and the horse is 3 for 30 lifetime, so it really doesn't warrant going back for a line.
#6 - last line.
#7 - last line.
#8 - last line.

As you can see on the first screen shot of the lines used, they are all either "+" or "(+)" races.



as stated above, the last line will be used just for evaluation. these horses will not be bet or be considered as contenders.
If you wonder why I highlight the "RS" column, it is because this is the column where I get to label the horse myself based on its' running style as I see it.



As you can see, the two horses that have been off are exactly even on "EPR". Also note, the #8, an EP, is capable of running right behind them.


On the segments screen, you can also see that the #8 has the second best second fraction, which puts it in a good position going to the second call.

Finally, the #8 is tops on the BL/BL screen.


The next post will show the race after the two horses that have been off are eliminated.