Kentucky Derby Day

[Bill Lyster]

Using the Hats Marathon method here is how it looked last year. I did not have a column for grade of race so I cannot readily recall if any of these horses lines came from other than a grade 1 or 2 race.

The first shot is of the top 10 best mile times. 4 of the top five finishers were in that group.

The 2nd shot is of the top 15 mile times. The 4th horse last year had the 43 best mile time. Go figure

[Bill V.]

Here are last years derby contenders using Phase 1
using only the last line, and only grade 1 or 2 races using
FTL's guidelines of a Plus pace line.

(note I used the Phase 1 screen from the entropy program)
reason my Dos version blew a gasket with the 10 furlong distance
Also note Entropy auto changes the race to 9.5 furlongs

Top 2 TPR 1st and 3rd


Here is my look at 2013



Program Entropy Screen # 5

[sureshotlink]

Hi Bill,

Is orb not a contender in your eye's??

best,

[Giahorse]

Originally Posted by trotman

Did you know that this 1st Saturday in May is the biggest day dollar volume of hawkers of tips (selections), statistical papers, systems and new handicapping software sales prior to the day and beats the BC by 2/3rds. That pretty much tells me the search for the winner is the be all and end all and the big winners are none other than the pushers of this crap.

Yes, but it's not the Derby I care about that much, its the nice undercard and huge pools that make for great value wagers.

[Giahorse]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

Hi Bill,

Is orb not a contender in your eye's??

best,

I don't think he saying he's not a contender, I think using the last line only and phase one he doesn't come up, if you used his 2nd back I think it might look a little different

[sureshotlink]

If you use the 2nd pace line back for orb you would have to do the same for vjjack or Normandy invasion. Both horses closed into a very slow P.O.R which to me is more impressive then closing into blistering fractions.ORB'S esp is a little to much on the early side for my taste.N.i should love the 10f distance. He's percent med is a steady 66.6.

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

If you use the 2nd pace line back for orb you would have to do the same for vjjack or Normandy invasion. Both horses closed into a very slow P.O.R which to me is more impressive then closing into blistering fractions.ORB'S esp is a little to much on the early side for my taste.N.i should love the 10f distance. He's percent med is a steady 66.6.

Agreed...

[lone speed]

Bill V.

Thanks for your time to work the race. The Derby may be one race but it is an important race where one can learn principles which can be apply to other races; it can be a low-priced claiming race or an overnight stakes race.

Bill...

Regarding the last paceline...if you do well with that approach; that's great; more power to you and I wish you success....

Regarding Normandy Invasion; off the last paceline.......I have him as the #1 Hidden Energy horse in my contenders. He might be one of my main contenders....

It's nice to see so many posters jump in and share their opinions!!!!

Good skills

[sureshotlink]

Vyjack look's somewhat interesting!

You will notice as the distance increases his percent med decreases and his total energy is moving up in the right direction. Also I like his versatile running style.Vyjacks win in the Gotham was decent!

Look forward to spit balling ideas with everyone on the panel.

Success to all!

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

Vyjack look's somewhat interesting!

You will notice as the distance increases his percent med decreases and his total energy is moving up in the right direction. Also I like his versatile running style.Vyjacks win in the Gotham was decent!

Look forward to spit balling ideas with everyone on the panel.

Success to all!

Here are the first three horses from the Wood Memorial:







First of all, I am giving my opinion which is just that...(two cents )

Verrazano had a dream trip to earn his Grade 1 blacktype for stud duties in the near future. He stalked a very leisurely pace of 113 and 3 fifths. Verrazano will be forced to use his energy early in the Kentucky Derby. We shall see in the race....

Vyjack was able to closed only half a length while Normandy Invasion was able to closed almost 3 lengths into a slow pace. The final fraction was 36 and 3 fifths so Normandy Invasion had an impressive 36.0 final fraction

IMHO, out of these three horses from the Wood; Normandy Invasion ran the best race. Neither Verrazano nor Vyjack dominate any key readouts from this paceline of the Wood Memorial while Normandy Invasion dominates hidden energy and L/ep from my work-up of the Derby. Others might get different readouts....

good skills to everyone....