Old ideas work

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by barb craven

I am. I didn't set out to use it. I was looking at all readouts to see what would work for elimination at Saratoga when using the 2 highest TPP lines for each horse. Using TPP for the 2 best lines was Ted's idea. After experimenting with different processes for elimination, I found TT was the only consistent one for Saratoga. When I mentioned this to Ted, he found it sufficiently interesting that he suggested (rather forcefully for him) that I post my findings here. It is working at Saratoga. Whether or not it works at other tracks remains to be seen. I would like it to work at Woodbine, but who knows yet.

By coincidence, I have been going back through Tom Brohamer's 'Modern Pace Handicapping' (MPH) when I came across this thread. Tom is a big fan of turn time as a strong indicator, but not as a stand alone handicapping tool. He has a whole chapter in the book on the subject.

In brief, he says that TT is the most consistent part of the performance of a horse in good form, and that increasing or decreasing TT indicates the direction of change in recent form. He says that good TT numbers indicate a presser that can take the lead if multiple early horses are likely to burn each other out, and that TT is a strong indicator of the ability of a horse to step up in class, as from claiming to conditioned allowance races.

He also says that TT is more dependable in cheaper races, and in sprints more so than routes. A weak TT is an especially bad warning sign for a horse coming out of a maiden win and moving up into open competition.

[Tim Y]

My lengthy experience with pace handicapping indicates to me that NO single fraction is causative in a horse's winning. 1) in sprints it is usually the first two 2) turf it is usually based upon that final TWO and 3) Routes can be variable depending upon the styles of the entrants in each race.

Since Turn time in part of the hidden fraction, it can look a some of the moves that are necessary to catch a field on the grass, but not quite.

Bottom LINE however, if that index works for you, continue to use it.

[Tim Y]

Woodbine's turf course is unique in all of racing as NO grass course has a length of stretch like we have here. 1440 feet is a long way to travel. I think only Kentucky Downs in close.

One sees late decelerations (third fraction velocity/ 2nd call velocity) win here at ratios of over 110% and that is unique in grass racing. It usually takes REAL late kick to win here unless it is very hard and dry.

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

My lengthy experience with pace handicapping indicates to me that NO single fraction is causative in a horse's winning. 1) in sprints it is usually the first two 2) turf it is usually based upon that final TWO and 3) Routes can be variable depending upon the styles of the entrants in each race.

Since Turn time in part of the hidden fraction, it can look a some of the moves that are necessary to catch a field on the grass, but not quite.

Bottom LINE however, if that index works for you, continue to use it.

I most definitely agree with you on your first statement, and reminded me of when Brohamer says somewhere in his book that the weakest bets in racing are the horses that dominate only ONE fraction of the race.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Latekick

I most definitely agree with you on your first statement, and reminded me of when Brohamer says somewhere in his book that the weakest bets in racing are the horses that dominate only ONE fraction of the race.

When the biases are active (in cold/wet weather situations I call COLD and BOLD) often f1 fraction dominance is all that is needed..particularly at Philly, FE, inner Aqu, and sometimes Woodbine. (NOTE it is the ONLY venue I have ever seen that waters and artificial course to calm down kickback. Poly used to require thousands of gallons of mineral oil to do the same thing. AGAIN, the only artificial course to ever add moisture to the surface)

[sureshotlink]

My English teacher once told me" If you don't have anything original to say steal from the best and go out strong"


The winner of a race will be determined on how the horse distributes his energy throughout the race, not whether one fraction is greater that the other. This is the reason that horses with the best final time do not always win.

" The Hat"


Paul link
Los Angeles, CA

[Tim Y]

Huey Mahl beat them to the punch on that one.

[sureshotlink]

True,

I compare them to Newton and Einstein. The Hat successfully improved on huey mahl theory.