Picking Contenders & Pacelines

[For The Lead]

There is a post in another thread by Bill V that I responded to. I'm putting a link here to that thread because I thought it was more appropriate to this thread.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8847

[Bill V.]

What I refer to is this capture from follow up 83





Lets look at the final comment by Doc
Now I would never disrespect Doc but I feel his comment is odd here



what troubles me is the "I had that horse reference" getting a $18 winner last week is wonderful and apparantly Doc found a unique race were
a horse with such poor form was able to win, probably against a bunch of other poor form horses.

But how many loses accure if we chase these type of horses ?
that $18 probably turns out to be as profitable as betting
show on the favorite every race
Its just a matter of time till your money is gone

I wish Doc had not printed that last line or expanded on the
factors that got him the winner.

There are so many longshots that come along
by using proper pace lines from true contenders

[For The Lead]

I thought I would take a day and go over each race at PRX for 12.10.12. It’s a rainy day with a sloppy track, which many would say are terrible conditions for handicapping. There are 12 scratches on the card, which is a little over one per race, on average. As I said, I am going to do every race on the card. Yes, even those dreaded (?) maiden races.

First let me go over my line selection process. I will NOT be using…
1 – best of last 3 distance/surface, or..
2 – best of last 3(regardless of distance or surface), or…
3 – best of last 3 perceptor
I am not saying #1 or #3 (above) are bad (#2 is), I am just saying they are not my preference.
I will be using the original methodology concept of using the last line “UNLESS” there is a valid reason to go back a line. The lines chosen will be “+” races or “(+)” races.
Continuing on with the original methodology, a line will NOT be given to every horse in the race. Instead, I will look at each horses PP’s and determine the contenders prior to giving them a line.
I will also run down the horses in each race so you can “get a feel” for how I arrived at the contenders and the lines used. If there are any “special” comments, they will be included.
I can tell you right now,any horse with a ML=>20/1 will NOT get a line or be considered a contender.
Also, no horse that has been OFF for more than 90 days will be considered a contender.
Also, no horse will receive a line that is more than 90 days old.

This is not an attempt on my part to "pick" the winner. I have marked certain attributes the winner displayed and leave it up to the reader to determine whether or not the winner would have been apparent to them playing 2 horses per race. Could you have made the winner one of your two bets?

[For The Lead]

This is a maiden claimer 15k

#1 - last line 29 days ago. In its' last two race it ran "ote" whether the distance was 5.5 furlongs or 7 furlongs, so I can assume it will run "ote" at 6 furlongs as well.
#2 - no line. no form.
#3 - FTS
#4 - FTS
#5 - last line 21 days ago
#6 - no line. just one bad race
#7 - last line 36 days ago

As you can see, I only have 3 horses with lines.

The winner, #7, paid $4.60.

[For The Lead]

I didn't see any need for screen shots here. I only had lines for two horses, #2 and #5. Both were last race lines.
If anyone has a question about why lines were not chosen for any other horse or horses in the race, just ask and I'll be glad to provide my answer.

The winner #5 paid 4.20.

[For The Lead]

This is a $7,500 claiming race for horses that have never won 4 races (NW4L) at 5.5 furlongs.

#1 - SCR
#2 - last line. I could have gone back to the line 3 back because it is the same distance at today's race, but this is an early horse and its' last was was a good 2nd where it ran early.
#3 - last line. this horse has only one race in the last 90 days. it is a (+) race.
#4 - no line. the only sprint line in the last 90 days is the last line, which wasn't very good.
#5 - last line. this horse has three races in the last 90 days, all sprints. the last line is an improvement over the other two. you may wonder why I would use this race. the horse made the lead at the first call and was just 1/2 length off the lead at the second call although it was 3rd at that point. I want to include horses that are on or close to the lead at the first call so that the "pace" of the race is representative.
#6 - last line. this horse doesn't have many good races, so it is hard to gauge its' running style. "Doc" wrote in the paceline manual that any horse that is on the lead at the first two calls is coming to form and you can expect a good race from it. I understand the race is at 7 furlongs and today's race is 5.5 furlongs, but it is the only race across the PARX track, so I would rather have that line than one from SUF.
#7 - last line. this is an early horse, probably the best early horse in the race. we will see how it matches up to other potential early horses in the race.

The #7 wins and pays $5.20.

[For The Lead]

This is a $16,000 claiming race with a none winners of 1 in the last 6 months condition (NW16MX) Any win for $12,500 or less does not count.

#1 - last line. this horse is coming off of two consecutive wins, one for $5,000 and the other for $10,000. Now it is moving up to $16,000. it may be hard for this horse to win three race in a row.
#1A - SCR
#2 - last line. this horse has had three races back after a long layoff. it won two of those races. In the race 2 back it tried today's class level and conditions and ran a creditable race.
#3 - no line. it tried today's class level and condition in lines 2 and 3 without success. it dropped down in its' last race and ran worse.
#4 - last line. ran a good second last out and is moving up in class in the same condition.
#5 - 2 back. last line is a route. this horse only shows two sprints. it ran 3rd each time.
#6 - no line. tried this class level and condition in each of its' last two races. both races were dismal.

The winner was #4 and paid $39.60.

[For The Lead]

This is a $12,500 claiming race with a non winners of 1 race in the last 6 months condition. Races won for $7,500 or less do not count.

Horses 1, 3 and 6 were scratched.

#2 - last line. this is an early horse
#4 - no line. no route races.
#5 - last line. won last and moving up in class within the same condition.
#7 - last line.

The winner, #2, paid $7.00.

[For The Lead]

This is another maiden claiming race where I only have lines for two horses, #3 and #9. The last line was chosen for each horse.
Again, I see no need to post screen shots.


The winner, #9, paid $10.20.

[For The Lead]

This is a $25,000 claiming race with a non winners of 2 races condition. (NW2L)

#1 - no line. although the last race was a "starter allowance" it is very close in purse and exactly the same condition. The horse did not perform well and I did not see an excuse for going back a line. It's lifetime record suggests the horse like to run 2nd and 3rd.
#2 - no line. dull form.
#3 - no line. dull form.
#4 - last line. a good 2nd.
#5 - SCR
#6 - last line. The horse ran well to the top of the stretch and I want to see how it fits with other pace players.
#7 - no line. last race was the first race back after a long layoff. it was a dull race.
#8 - line 2. the last race wasn't a bad race to the top of the stretch against starter allowance horses with today's condition. the line 2 back was against the same class level and same condition as today's and the horse ran a good second.
#9 - last line. I could have used line 2. the last race was against starter allowance horses with a NW2L condition and its' race two back was exactly the same as today's race. I'm not concerned about the finish position. My interest is how it will match up with the early pace.

The winner, #8, paid $27.60.

NOTE: when I looked at the segments screen the #6 horse showed it was fastest at the first two fractions. This shows the horse as early, but the horse really isn't an early horse. it has never been better than 3rd (once) at the first call of any race.