Monday, August 3, 2009 - Page 5 - Pace and Cap

tfm · 08-03-2009, 05:00 PM

WO R9

exacta: 5/1,7

classhandicapper · 08-03-2009, 05:07 PM

Quality Road looked pretty good.

classhandicapper · 08-03-2009, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tfm

That's just an amazing training feat by McLaughlin. Now I know he's juicing. You can't take a closing sprinter on the turf and stretch her out to win like this, easily, drawing off late, going long. Just not done. And, at 3:1, you know they were all over her.

I know the prevailing wisdom is that turf sprint stretch outs are a major negative, but I'm seeing more and more of them win lately. There is always incremental risk when asking a horse that's good at one thing to do another. It may indeed be even tougher for turf sprinters. However, there was no turf sprinting in NY until the last couple of years. So perhaps some of the trainers are just beginning to learn how to determine which ones can and which ones can't and also how to get them ready to do it.

It is my experience that most juicers are way better on dirt than turf. I think that suggests some things about the impact of certain drugs.

tfm · 08-03-2009, 05:23 PM

If Searling is wrong that cutbacks don't win on the turf, he's ABSOLUTELY CORRECT in that turf sprinters don't stretch out well. Trust me, ALL I play is turf, on all different tracks, and this almost NEVER happens. Especially after a horse has been sprinting for a couple of races. (You might see an older horse that's flexible enough to go back and forth but these are a result of the races carded at these smaller tracks.)
I can't give you an exact reason as to why this is. I believe it has much to do about footwork. I can make sense of Kiaran's horse stepping up yesterday and wiping out the good stake field, as he'd run 3 straight wipe-outs in a row going in. But, this horse today, that couldn't get by a tired leader at WO last out, while running inside, just didn't make sense.

While I write this my router in the 9th at WO got wired by a sprinter that dueled and drew off.

tfm · 08-03-2009, 05:34 PM

I wanted to bet against that perfect trip needing weasel Golden Mexico. But I just couldn't come up with anyone. Hung like a rat.

classhandicapper · 08-03-2009, 05:48 PM

I don't have a strong opinion about turf sprinters stretching out because I've never studied it statistically and don't get involved in too many turf races with lightly raced horses. That where I see most of them entered. However, long before Serling started talking about it on TV, another winning player I know expressed the same view to me privately. With you saying the same thing, I assume it must be true. It also makes some sense given some of own "general theories" about turf racing. I'd just be leary of concluding it's juice because I don't think the commonly used juices are as effective on turf. Virtually all the suspected juice trainers get worse results on turf. So maybe a few trainers like McLaughlin just happen to be a little better at it than average. Dont know though.

Losing a few dollars today, but I'm coming back by booking some bets on the exchanges. I booked a bet on Royal Vindication in the 9th that almost got me out for the day. My handicappiong has been bad at Saratoga so far though. I am stuck about 6 units for the meet. Feeling a little lost, but it happens.

justin13892002 · 08-03-2009, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tfm

If Searling is wrong that cutbacks don't win on the turf, he's ABSOLUTELY CORRECT in that turf sprinters don't stretch out well. Trust me, ALL I play is turf, on all different tracks, and this almost NEVER happens. Especially after a horse has been sprinting for a couple of races. (You might see an older horse that's flexible enough to go back and forth but these are a result of the races carded at these smaller tracks.)
I can't give you an exact reason as to why this is. I believe it has much to do about footwork. I can make sense of Kiaran's horse stepping up yesterday and wiping out the good stake field, as he'd run 3 straight wipe-outs in a row going in. But, this horse today, that couldn't get by a tired leader at WO last out, while running inside, just didn't make sense.

While I write this my router in the 9th at WO got wired by a sprinter that dueled and drew off.

Sartin Methodology, The Match-up BOTH play well in the Turf Stretch Out. Alot of races are won by Closers due to the toll the surface takes on the horses, and the front-runners usually tire. Sprinters stretching out, normally go to the lead, or fight for the lead due to their early sprinting style. With the stretch out, AND Turf, which is tiring in of itself, both together make for a bad situation. As for the horses that win doing this, you will see they didn't go to the lead in the sprint, or didn't fall in the sprint. This is because they were bred or should have been on the longer surface to begin with.

Just my opinion

tfm · 08-03-2009, 06:12 PM

Yeah. Look at today's 9th at WO: Rockglen.

Two back, 7F on the turf, he bids at the speed and can't get by (my bounce angle). Next out they try him 8.5F on the turf. He makes a premature move and collapses late. Even if he were fit, which he was, no way he handles opening up on the field and holding to the wire routing. Where's his stamina going to come from? Today, he cuts back to 7F and demolishes the field. Guaranteed, if they try to stretch him out again next time, he'll take the lead and collapse in the lane.

Now, I haven't checked the replay of his two prior races but today he went almost the entire length of the stretch without changing leads.

Once again, maybe a sprinter is, every so often, able to wire a field routing, to steal a race, especially by setting a slow pace; but a sprinter typically doesn't stretch out and come off the pace to win.

08-03-2009, 05:23 PM	#44
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	If Searling is wrong that cutbacks don't win on the turf, he's ABSOLUTELY CORRECT in that turf sprinters don't stretch out well. Trust me, ALL I play is turf, on all different tracks, and this almost NEVER happens. Especially after a horse has been sprinting for a couple of races. (You might see an older horse that's flexible enough to go back and forth but these are a result of the races carded at these smaller tracks.) I can't give you an exact reason as to why this is. I believe it has much to do about footwork. I can make sense of Kiaran's horse stepping up yesterday and wiping out the good stake field, as he'd run 3 straight wipe-outs in a row going in. But, this horse today, that couldn't get by a tired leader at WO last out, while running inside, just didn't make sense. While I write this my router in the 9th at WO got wired by a sprinter that dueled and drew off. Last edited by tfm; 08-03-2009 at 05:28 PM.

08-03-2009, 05:48 PM	#46
classhandicapper AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 47	I don't have a strong opinion about turf sprinters stretching out because I've never studied it statistically and don't get involved in too many turf races with lightly raced horses. That where I see most of them entered. However, long before Serling started talking about it on TV, another winning player I know expressed the same view to me privately. With you saying the same thing, I assume it must be true. It also makes some sense given some of own "general theories" about turf racing. I'd just be leary of concluding it's juice because I don't think the commonly used juices are as effective on turf. Virtually all the suspected juice trainers get worse results on turf. So maybe a few trainers like McLaughlin just happen to be a little better at it than average. Dont know though. Losing a few dollars today, but I'm coming back by booking some bets on the exchanges. I booked a bet on Royal Vindication in the 9th that almost got me out for the day. My handicappiong has been bad at Saratoga so far though. I am stuck about 6 units for the meet. Feeling a little lost, but it happens. Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-03-2009 at 05:50 PM.

08-03-2009, 06:12 PM	#48
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Yeah. Look at today's 9th at WO: Rockglen. Two back, 7F on the turf, he bids at the speed and can't get by (my bounce angle). Next out they try him 8.5F on the turf. He makes a premature move and collapses late. Even if he were fit, which he was, no way he handles opening up on the field and holding to the wire routing. Where's his stamina going to come from? Today, he cuts back to 7F and demolishes the field. Guaranteed, if they try to stretch him out again next time, he'll take the lead and collapse in the lane. Now, I haven't checked the replay of his two prior races but today he went almost the entire length of the stretch without changing leads. Once again, maybe a sprinter is, every so often, able to wire a field routing, to steal a race, especially by setting a slow pace; but a sprinter typically doesn't stretch out and come off the pace to win. Last edited by tfm; 08-03-2009 at 06:16 PM.

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08-03-2009, 05:00 PM	#41
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	WO R9 exacta: 5/1,7

08-03-2009, 05:07 PM	#42
classhandicapper AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 47	Quality Road looked pretty good.

08-03-2009, 05:34 PM	#45
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	I wanted to bet against that perfect trip needing weasel Golden Mexico. But I just couldn't come up with anyone. Hung like a rat.