Pace lines

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Charlie,

Ah, but which lines are they? The methodology guideline is "best of last three".
Are we trying to "manufacture" a winner by looking for the best race he ever ran regardless of how old it is, or looking for the best horse "today" based on current form and condition?

FTL

This tutorial explains better than i ever could.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5623


The True contenders in todays race is what we are looking for i think and the variables you use to find these is entirely down to personal choice as some will give more weight to one particular variable than another as you can see from Jeff and Tims posts on race conditions.

[gl45]

FTL,
Different scenario from your quote:

Today's race is a 10k nw3l at 6f on the dirt DSLR 17

last race - 10K nw3l - same distance, surface, wired the field DSLR 15
2nd back - 10k nw3l - same distance, surface, 2nd by a nose DSLR 17
3rd back - 10k nw2l - stunk DSLR 397
9th back - 13k open - same distance, surface, 2nd. by a length.

I'm not debating the validity for selecting the best of last 3 pace lines, what I'm debating is "what effect the last 2 or 3 races had on the horse". Will the horse retain is current form going in today's race?
In the above scenario we would select line 1 or line 2 due to the horse current performance. Imo the last 2 or 3 races only show the horse current form or condition. What about the horse Pace and Class abilities. In this case line 9 would be the line.
Imo, a second rating that would quantify the Pace-Class abilities of the horse should be used to complement the validity of the best of the last 3 line.

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Not to drift the Paceline Topic too much, but nice race, and good point made!

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=53979

OK, I used a computer - I didn't have a racing form

Ted

Another demonstration of what "The Hat" was trying to get across to people imho

[alydar_ David]

(private message sent by me on April 01, 2002)

John,

I listened to the Sartin tape again yesterday on paceline selection. I thought you'd be interested in what Tom Brohamer said.

First, contenders:
* APV on every horse and throw out the obvious

* RECENCY - no hardfast rules, but use some common sense. If a claimer just won and sits in the barn for five weeks, it's a throwout unless you know the trainer pulls that move successfully.

Basically, he wants to see some kind of activity within three to five weeks, either a race or a workout.

Second, Paceline:
* Try to use the last race if at all possible.

Some reasons to not use the last race:
1) Offtrack
2) Obviously bad class level
3) Extreme outside post in a route
4) Make sure paceline is typical of running style (for example, a front-runner who has a bad start -- use another paceline).

He may then step back for a paceline, but really try to not do that. Occasionally, he'll go back to the third race, but almost never.

What I found interesting is that he does not make allowances for different tracks, distances or dirt/turf. He'd rather adjust the race than use another paceline. That's interesting. I've not done that too much.

Hope this helps.

~David

[alydar_ David]

Some years ago I was at Bridgeport Jai-Alai with Cary Fotias. We were playing the simulcast races. He was using his Atane program (this was prior to his Blinkers Off and Equiform).

I was using The Sheets and the newly released Thoromation with four points of call.

Cary asked how Thoromation worked and I explained that you had to select one paceline to represent how the horse would run today.

He said, "One paceline? How do I know which one? What do I look like, f___ing Houdini?"

LOL!

[Ted Craven]

Related to our current topic, here is a thread on PaceAdvantage about recency, but especially, a link to a HTR newsletter with a pretty detailed, recent analysis which I think everyone should digest and think about.

I include the link here because it was already published in that PA topic, and thanks to Ken Massa and the HTR folks for the research (article beginning Page 8):

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRReport-MayJun07.pdf

Ted

[For The Lead]

Is it really necessary to choose a paceline for an early type (need to lead) where the horse finished 1st or within 1 length of the winner in order to evaluate its' total energy potential?

Is it not more important to evaluate the horses' early fraction potential?

It has been my experience, that an early horse does not necessarily go slower on the lead just because it is unchallenged on the lead. Many times an early horse goes quite fast even though unchallenged.

An early horse unchallenged on the lead will provide all the total energy you need. The trick is to be able to identify whether or not an early horse will be alone on the lead.

[Bill V.]

The other bet

Last night at MNR in race 5 I bet the 1 and the 6
The one horse won and paid $11.40

I used the last two races. I was looking for the best of the last 3 adjusted speed ratings at a comperable distance surface and competition level

I entered both lines for horse 1 and the program showed me line 2 was the best It was higher rated on the Primarly line score

My other bet was the 6 horse It ran poorly finishing at the bottom I made this screen shot to show you and myself the error I made and how entering
bad lines will mess you up This is my look at picking lines
and the importance proper line selection is when using the Sartin Methodology

My thoughts are in the notepad insert
The best to you
Bill V.

[alydar_ David]

(posted here, by me on June 29, 2007)

Chris,

Thanks for your erudite post. You have some creative ideas and have generously shared them.

Which paceline to use? Aye, there's the rub.

I think I first asked that question in 1969 and have never found a satisfactory answer. I think I've had this converstation thousands of times and have written about it more times than I care to remember. However, your post has inspired me. Here goes.

I've used almost every program on the market (well, not as many as Jim G ;>) and have employed automatic paceline tools, creating several of them myself with purchased software as well as code I've personally written. All of them have left me wanting.

I recall Michael Nunamaker doing a study. It may have been in Modern Impact Values, I'm not entirely sure. I don't have those stats handy, but I remember the gist of what he discerened. He discovered that using the horse's second best speed figure was more predictive than anything else. Unfortunately, it produced a negative return on investment.

After reading that I scampered around like a busy little beaver and created a program using Phase III type readouts with variant energy. That program selected the second best paceline from the horse's last ten pacelines (assuming all ten races were run on today's track, surface and at today's distance, otherwise there were exceptions and rules made which I won't bother going into here). The results? Disheartening, to say the least.

I've also worked with artifical intelligence programs which select pacelines. They are, as Dick Mitchell said, the wrong technology for horse racing. "A broken clock is better. At least that's right twice a day."

This is not to say one can't successfully implement rules and/or guidelines. Look at Binder. He is like an unwavering pit bull with this "best of last three comparable" paceline guidelines. Granted, Bill deviates from this at times, but he can tell you exactly why and under what conditions he'll go back to a fourth paceline. For example, high class & APV, the last three were sprints and today is a route, etcetera. Bill has had undeniable success with his approach.

Do you remeber Dick Quigley (sp)? He had a set of guidelines where he used different colors which allowed you to go to different paceline zones based on certain criteria. For example, a horse was in the green zone if such and such, and you could only pick a paceline from the red zone under specific conditions. I used this for a while with success. It worked well in the old days when horses didn't run all year long. Frequent layoffs and "freshenings" have rendered his method obsolete.

I've been involved with a couple of statisticians and an actuary on a paceline selection project. We came up with very different paceline selection methods based on the race at hand. For example, at one particular track, for one particular sex and age group, we found that for maiden claimers the best paceline in the entire past performances of the horse was the best to use. In other cases it would behoove (pun intended :>) the bettor to use the best of the last two pacelines.

We spent a lot of time and money on this research and the result was...well, there was no result to speak of; all our findings were statistically insignificant. Time and money down the drain, along with all our high hopes and expectations. Sigh. Those guys threw up their hands and gave up. They left horse racing.

That's not to say it can't be done. Maybe it can. We were not able to do it though.

Personally, I don't know if pacelines "loom off the page" at me, but I sort of do it half by zen now. I don't give it a great deal of thought and allow it to happen.

I'd prefer to know exactly which paceline to use at all times, but that may be something best left to Walter Mitty.

[gl45]

Bill,
would you mind posting the Primary Line Score for #1 at MNR race 5.
You had the win I had the Ex
Txs