2016 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks, you know I was commenting on the lack of info, not your effort?

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Thanks, you know I was commenting on the lack of info, not your effort?

No worries I knew exactly what you meant when I read your message post the first time...

Yani appears to run like Exaggerator as in one of his prep race before Lani won the UAE Derby; Lani made a huge 6 wide move going into the 2nd turn before flattening out and finishing 5th in the race.

I have to believe that the major objective for Lani was the $2million UAE Derby and the Kentucky Derby is an afterthought. Some trainers aim specifically for the Kentucky Derby while some say "why not" due to Derby fever.

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Arkansas Derby Chart:

Attachment 40391

The horses that were at the back of the pack after the fast early pace set by Gettysburg were the first three finishers at the wire. Looking at the early pace run over the Oaklawn Park race track which is deep and similar to Churchill; this race fell apart as indicated by the 4F pace in 46 1/5 and 6Furlongs in 110 3/5 and the last 3/8ths in 39 2/5.

Creator 6F in 112 3/5 and final 3/8ths in 37 2/5
Suddenbrekingnews (owner's spelling) 6F in 112 2/5 and final 3/8ths in 37 3/5- accounting for troubled trip
Whitmore 6F in 112 1/5 and final 3/8ths in 38.0

Gettyburg's fast early pace doomed Baffert's Cupid who never faced such early pace pressure in his prior prep races.

This was a disappointing Derby prep season as there were few stellar performances. Indeed, we have an undefeated champion colt in Nyquist; but looking at energy distributions and (whatever) speed numbers- it has been a mediocre 3 year-old colt crop this year. Yes, we have the undefeated and untested 3 year-old filly Songbird.....

Perhaps the triple crown efforts from last year caused a bounce in this year's 3 year old crop....

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by lone speed

UAE Derby winner:

Attachment 40410

Right after the UAE derby I thought I saw a Trakus chart of the race with splits and lengths back. I know the race was run very slowly, so I am not too worried, a lot because I don't think he beat too much - a good filly perhaps, but Frank Conversation showed that he was not up to it, even factoring in the desert, etc.

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Right after the UAE derby I thought I saw a Trakus chart of the race with splits and lengths back. I know the race was run very slowly, so I am not too worried, a lot because I don't think he beat too much - a good filly perhaps, but Frank Conversation showed that he was not up to it, even factoring in the desert, etc.

Courtesy of Gene Rayburn

You have to adjust for no run-up at Meydan and convert from the metric system. If I adjust the first fraction down 2 seconds to allow for the run-up and convert meters to yards, I get the following approximate fractions:

Race fractions - 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.46

Lani Fractions - 25.48 49.11 1:12.64 1:37.59

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

Perhaps the triple crown efforts from last year caused a bounce in this year's 3 year old crop....

Let's hope we don't have to wait another 37 years before we have another Triple Crown Champion. American Pharoah was so sweet!!!

[Latekick]

This derby is wide open in my opinion. Lots of speeds who can't relax, and closers who blaze late.
I think it's going to be anyones race at the 1/16th pole and the winner will emerge in the final strides. There's just no standouts as of right now.

[Latekick]

Something else id just like to add quickly.
Is Destin being somewhat forgotten? I am not saying i will select this horse on Derby Day, that decision will be made the day of the derby. However i feel as though because he did not run again after his tampa win, people are forgetting that this horse beat a runner who went on to win the Wood next out, although not a strong race he still beat Outwork handily. His time was also respectable. Whenever we get the derby field and readouts it will be interesting to see how Destin ranks, i feel as though if his numbers rank well he will undoubtedly be a very nice price.

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Something else id just like to add quickly.
Is Destin being somewhat forgotten? I am not saying i will select this horse on Derby Day, that decision will be made the day of the derby. However i feel as though because he did not run again after his tampa win, people are forgetting that this horse beat a runner who went on to win the Wood next out, although not a strong race he still beat Outwork handily. His time was also respectable. Whenever we get the derby field and readouts it will be interesting to see how Destin ranks, i feel as though if his numbers rank well he will undoubtedly be a very nice price.

The owner of Destin is also the new owner of The Ragozin Sheets. They provide performance numbers similar to Jerry Brown's Thorograph services. Brown was once a sheet disciple until he ventured on his own.

Destin ran a big number in the Tampa Derby; almost the same number as Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby. Since the owner is a sheet believer, they wanted to give Destin time off to recover instead of running in another Derby prep race. Eight weeks off until the Derby??? Barbaro had 5 weeks off which was the longest between races......just saying

Exaggerator and Destin have the top two performance figures in this Derby field according to Thorograph.

[Bill Lyster]

I agree and certainly this horse adds confusion to the mix having not raced in a bit. Enclosed is my version of the PPs for this race based on what has happened so far. Raw times all the way, but this is set up for my Match Up marathon analysis after scratches.

I arranged horses by running style, but note that Nyquist won the BC as a P or SP, so he does not have to have the lead.

I laid in a pace (light purple) that I think is likely and surprisingly it closely matches the pace of last year's Derby. I have marked position and lengths movers, the top twenty mile times by race and horse. Hope it helps.

The "P" and "L" notations are positions gained from 3/4 to end and lengths gained from the same places.

There might be changes to this field in the next week or so, so this is not a final deal, OK.