Betting Examples Discussion

[Bill V.]

So now we see different points of view Every one makes good points

Now its up to each person to look at the reflexion in the mirror
and ask yourself Do I truly want to win of do I not want somebody to get mad at me. Do you need insurance ? I do and without insurance their is disaster

Each of us

We must realize that no matter how much you want to be like FTL or anybody else It's not going to happen 100%
We each function with various physical emotional and mental ability. We each have our on ideas of success. We all can tolerate different levels of love/hate pain/pleasure work/play Not only that but we all have outside conflicts with family work and disposable income, lack of self esteem or physical handicaps that limit our own ability to wager in FTL's world. Of all the elements that effect our own abilities I feel the one that hurts us the most is indecision. One horse win only betters have a ability to isolate and make a decision on one horse and then decide if that one horse meets their acceptable odds minimum I feel there strength is not that they are better handicappers, Its that they have a better mental and physical ability to make decisions.

Rules

FTL offers a cold hard fact based point of view. But we do have the ability to win based on our own levels of confidence and decision making. There are no rules, FTL's betting rules would be appreciable if everybody had to bet the same races every day. Then those who bet correctly
in a group event would do better than 2 win or win/place betters In the learn to win contest and In the real world there are no assigned races. Does it really matter if only a very small percentage of 7/1 horses win in ALL races, if your program and your decision making says THIS 7/1 horse in THIS MATCH UP has a very good chance and if somehow the your OTHER win bet wins you can still make a very good profit with a back up place bet That to me is insurance By Insurance we mean the ability to compensate for our decision making ability.
So there really is no need for anybody to tell you how you should bet. You make the decision of the race, the odds. your readouts, THE MATCH UP of these condenders You don't need to handicap when your busy or when your wife is upset or you just don't feel well.

Constancy.

Nobody I have observed in all the years I have been here on pace and cap or all the years I have spent watching and learning from at the track is 100 % cold hard facts consistent. People make claims to be consistent but,nobody I know bets the same way in the real world every time. If you do you are in a very small minority and your in that minority because you made the decision to be. No one forced you to be what you are, why force people to do it your way.

There is only 1 out of about 20 people in the contest who is a 1 horse better Because of the real world race/.life elements
people are constantly looking at each race and deciding how is the best way to attck each race. I see positve ROI's there are no facts that can over ride real life betting If you doubt this take a look at the last month and of half of the learn to win contest look how often people change there betting methods
Why is this ?

Betting

Are people making unwise bets? Yes I agree, I don't see much sence in a $80 win bet and 2 $10 place bets
Thats were these discussions have value But to flat out say don't make win and place bets together is not in my opinion your right.
or a good approch for everybody. All you may end up doing is dscourage those who's ability and growth are not fully developed.
Let the seedlings grow and encourage wins and profit in a 20 race cyle. Than slowly fine tone peoples ability and decision making

Improvers

Take a look at the final standings of the June contest Better yet first look at the June 15th contest standings.
Notice how many people are doing better today then they did on June 15th or July 1st To me That's the true value of the Learn To Win Contest Its because many different methods are being presented
and its also because doing real races ahead of time is the real world
Lets show people things they can relate to and focus their decision making abilties on Stats and rules are good
but lets fine tune with real racing

It is what we do.


Bill

[For The Lead]

You didn’t get my point regarding “insurance bets”. These “insurance bets” are not insurance bets, but rather, “hedge bets” or “saver bets”. They are separate and individual bets made in an effort to cover your basic “win bet”. If you want to “win”, then you make the bets that show you a profit and you don’t make the bets that don’t show you a profit. Once you know which bets make you a profit, then you have to decide which bets will return the largest profit. From there you have to decide to keep your betting strategy the way it is or move on to a wagering strategy the offers maximum profits.

I don’t think anyone is trying to be like me. And what I write here certainly doesn’t reflect how I actually play. I simply write what I feel is the best way to learn and to profit from the methodology, while providing helpful bits of information.

Again, when I write about splitting bets in a 60%/40% manner and trying to achieve a 60% to 70% (OR 12 to 14 wins in a 20 race cycle), these ARE NOT my betting rules. “Doc” made those goals, not me. I’m simply reinforcing his ideas that turned his original group of chronic losers into winners, not to mention the many clients he had that came later.
And again, this is NOT how I go about my business in actual play. To suggest that I want everyone to play as I do is just wrong.

Also, what you characterize as “my rules” would NOT serve people well in a contest where everyone played the same races. In fact, the beauty of the current “Learn To Win” contest is the fact that each player can choose his own race(s) to play, thereby giving the player the freedom to pick and choose rather than be confined to the same race(s) as everyone else.

You are correct about the small percentage of 7/1 horses that win and that it doesn’t make any difference, if that is the horse you feel you should bet today. As I have stated many times before, my minimum acceptable odds is 4/1, so just about every play I make has a small win percentage by comparison, but it makes no difference to me if that horse appears to be the winner of the race in which I bet it.

In the beginning, “Doc” didn’t give his original group a choice. In the beginning, “Doc” didn’t give his clients a choice. “Doc” told them, “you WILL pick contenders like this. You WILL bet two horses per race. You WILL bet 60% of your bet on the low odds horse. You WILL bet 40% of your bet on the low odds horse”. And guess what? IT WORKED!! At least for those who followed his advice. I’m simply providing a refresher course on the basics of the methodology in order to give everyone a strong root that will provide future growth.

There seems to be much concern for a “safety net” in the form of some mythical insurance bet. “Doc” provided that by demanding the betting of two horses in each race…to win.
Consider this. In a 20 race cycle one would be betting a total of 40 horses…40 of them! All “Doc” was asking his clients to do is, win with 12 of those 40 horses in order to achieve a 60% win rate. “Doc” knew that with good contender selection and good line selection this was an achievable goal. He knew that once you reached this goal, you would be prepared for what may come later. As with anything else, it is always best to start at the beginning.

[Bill V.]

Here is a example
Lets say you have worked a race, you have two horses you decide are worth a bet
Again lets deal in reality. You feel both of these horses can and should win the race. but outside of a dead heat only one of them will win, in the real world and this is the key to this post, You feel they both have the same chance of winning the race

Horse AAA odds are 5/2
Horse BBB odds are 4/1

here is what will happen if you bet 60/40 or 50/50

You bet $100 into the race
Lets say you bet $60 on AAA If it wins, you will get $210
Lets say you bet $40 on BBB It it wins, you will get $200

now its the next race
again your two win contenders are:

CCC at 5/2
DDD at 4/1

You bet $100 into the race but split your bet $50/50

You bet $50 on CCC If it wins you will get $175
You bet $50 on DDD If it wins you will get $250

[JimG]

Bill V.,

Aren't people that make the odd bets of $80 win one horse and $10 place on two separate horses merely trying to hit more races because of the multiplier you have built into the contest standings that stresses races hit?

Jim

[gl45]

Bill,
"People make claims to be consistent but,nobody I know bets the same way in the real world every time."
I do....... 4 horses exacta box, day in day out.

Stay well.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by jimg

bill v.,

aren't people that make the odd bets of $80 win one horse and $10 place on two separate horses merely trying to hit more races because of the multiplier you have built into the contest standings that stresses races hit?

Jim

amen.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Here is a example
Lets say you have worked a race, you have two horses you decide are worth a bet
Again lets deal in reality. You feel both of these horses can and should win the race. but outside of a dead heat only one of them will win, in the real world and this is the key to this post, You feel they both have the same chance of winning the race

Horse AAA odds are 5/2
Horse BBB odds are 4/1

here is what will happen if you bet 60/40 or 50/50

You bet $100 into the race
Lets say you bet $60 on AAA If it wins, you will get $210
Lets say you bet $40 on BBB It it wins, you will get $200

now its the next race
again your two win contenders are:

CCC at 5/2
DDD at 4/1

You bet $100 into the race but split your bet $50/50

You bet $50 on CCC If it wins you will get $175
You bet $50 on DDD If it wins you will get $250

Attachment 28192

The concept of betting 60% on the low odds horse and 40% on the high odds horse is valid for the following reason.
Low odds horses will win more often than high odds horses therefore you will win more of the 60% bets than you will the 40% bets. It’s just that simple. It doesn’t matter if the low odds horse is 5/2 and the high odds horse is 4/1 OR if the low odds horse is 4/1 and the high odds horse is 8/1 OR any other mix of odds.

What happens in any “one” particular race means nothing.

Beyond that, consistency is the name of the game.

It is in the player’s best interest to bet each and every race the same way.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by JimG

Bill V.,

Aren't people that make the odd bets of $80 win one horse and $10 place on two separate horses merely trying to hit more races because of the multiplier you have built into the contest standings that stresses races hit?

Jim

hello Jim

You are mistaken and I hope/pray Ted backs me up on this
The contest does NOT stress races hit
We added a consistany muliplier to support the spirit of this contest,
which was to learn how to bet in real time
Often contest are won by 1 big hit, which is fine for a monetray prize found
type deal
But the real prize in this contest is that we make each and everyone of us better handicappers / NOT CONTEST WINNERS !!!

Now as I have attempted to point out before the contest is based on your
NETSCORE which is your bankroll times your hit rate
It does you no good to have a high hit rate if your bankroll is weak

As Ted and I have tried to show, look at last month gfnut nearly won
the contest that seemed all but over because he had a very profitable
last few days and his bankroll was high enough before he had his hot streak
that he not only nearly won but he showed a good ROI after his 20 race cycle
That is what we need to see.


Anyway here again is a example of reality

Here is a person in the contest ( Jon Doe )

He starts out with a Bank of 2676.50 he has a .846 hit rat his netscore is
2264.73 he is doing very well winning 11/13 races

Now u we see how his score changes if he bets $100 win on a $8.00 horse
Then $80 win on the $8.00 horse
Then $80 win $10 place $8.00 win $3.00 Place
Then if only his $10 place bet comes in


Notice how his hit rate goes up to .857 but his netscore and bankroll are
effected
mostly in the hit on the $10 place bet

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

The concept of betting 60% on the low odds horse and 40% on the high odds horse is valid for the following reason.
Low odds horses will win more often than high odds horses therefore you will win more of the 60% bets than you will the 40% bets. It’s just that simple. It doesn’t matter if the low odds horse is 5/2 and the high odds horse is 4/1 OR if the low odds horse is 4/1 and the high odds horse is 8/1 OR any other mix of odds.

What happens in any “one” particular race means nothing.

Beyond that, consistency is the name of the game.

It is in the player’s best interest to bet each and every race the same way.

Yes I see that, I wanted to show my example because even though you will make more money if your high odds horse wins The lower the odds are for a horse the more likely it will win So the AAA BBB race is better in most cases

Thanks
FTL

Bill

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by gl45

Bill,
"People make claims to be consistent but,nobody I know bets the same way in the real world every time."
I do....... 4 horses exacta box, day in day out.

Stay well.

Thats true Pino
I apologize You have been very consistant over all these years
betting your 4 horse exacta boxes

GS
Bill