Betting 2 horses a positive example

[ray lopez]

At the end of that 2 month vacation,i took some of my retirement savings
and put some of it to boost my playing bankroll.So when i quit my job,i had
a starting bank of $15,000.It was tough convincing the wife that i am a
winning player.She had all these thoughts of all horseplayers are gamblers and
all of them die broke.The first 3 months was really tough because i had to
pad my winnings so my wife can see that i'm a winner.I had to use some of
my savings for regular household expenses.It was a good thing that i didn't
have any credit card bills...I just told you my story,not to boost my ego but
to help any aspiring players who are thinking of turning professional...have
a good bankroll,get rid of the bills and prepare for a tough grind.But i enjoy
it and don't have to answer to anyone...right now,a friend gave me a
programmed Morning Liner Ultimate from the book of Paul Peterson.I'm
taking a close look at it but i don't know how accurate those lines are but
the concepts of expected growth rates are pretty interesting...

[ray lopez]

The Morning Liner Ultimate is a money management program that maximizes
your earning potential but your odds lines must be pretty accurate.It gives
you the expected growth rate and you can use a full-Kelly or partial
Kelly to make your wagers.I am studying it...I am just curious if any of you
guys have used it or have any comments about it...How accurate are the
odds lines of our computer programs for Kelly betting and can our odds
lines be use by the money management programs by the late Dick Mitchell
or Meadow or Morning Liner?...

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by ray lopez

The Morning Liner Ultimate is a money management program that maximizes
your earning potential but your odds lines must be pretty accurate.It gives
you the expected growth rate and you can use a full-Kelly or partial
Kelly to make your wagers.I am studying it...I am just curious if any of you
guys have used it or have any comments about it...How accurate are the
odds lines of our computer programs for Kelly betting and can our odds
lines be use by the money management programs by the late Dick Mitchell
or Meadow or Morning Liner?...

Ray, the Odds Lines of any Sartin program I've seen are woefully inaccurate. In short, "no," you cannot use them for any money management program.

You can make your own Odds Lines, but this is no small task.

If you do make your own Odds Lines, and are satisfied with them, the most logical way to proceed is to bet 25% Kelly. This is what my friend, the noted author Bill Ziemba, does.

Failing that, use a percentage of your bankroll. For example, bet 2% of your total bank if you're in a hurry to get to a betting level you want. Otherwise, 1% is prudent.

Betting 10% of your bankroll as Sartin suggests is folly and will, for all intents and purposes, bankrupt the best handicapper on the planet.

These 2% and 1% numbers may seem painfully small to some folks, but there are many reasons to bet only a tiny portion of your bankroll. That's an entire subject left for another day.

Dick Mitchell suggested that the Sartin method of putting 60% of your bet on the shorter of your two odds horses was exactly the opposite of what you should do to maximize your return. And he's right.

However, Mitchell ignores all the psychological factors that are inherent in the inevitable losing streaks you will encounter.

Personally, I recommend betting 50% on each of your selections if they are both 3-1 or over. You'll make more money in the long run this way, more than you'll make hedging.

What if they're both not 3-1 or over? If one of them is 5/2 and the other is long, then bet 60% on the 5/2 shot.

If they're both chalk, skip betting for that race. Or, bet one horse to win. That's up to the individual's preference.

Sartin suggested betting 60% to place and 40% to win if you're only betting one horse. That's good for psychological padding which is important, even if you do sacrifice some Return On Investment.

[ray lopez]

Thanks,David...and sorry to jms62,for i missed your post.The way i pick my
races and contenders is like this...The racebook prints out copies of tracks
and their entries for the next day's races...I look at the turf races and their
morning line odds and i can see which races have overwhelming favorites like
2-1,9/5,really low odds.I stay away from races like that.I look for races where
the lowest m/l odds are over 3-1...that's it...and after doing it for a long
time,i can pick my contenders and just narrow it down to less than 5...i just
keep it simple...

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by ray lopez

Thanks,David...and sorry to jms62,for i missed your post.The way i pick my
races and contenders is like this...The racebook prints out copies of tracks
and their entries for the next day's races...I look at the turf races and their
morning line odds and i can see which races have overwhelming favorites like
2-1,9/5,really low odds.I stay away from races like that.I look for races where
the lowest m/l odds are over 3-1...that's it...and after doing it for a long
time,i can pick my contenders and just narrow it down to less than 5...i just
keep it simple...

That's a creative approach, Ray.

I'm glad it's working for you!

:>)

[froggy]

Ray,

I just tried your 4 horse dutch method on the tenth at Pim, a turf race.
I bet $151 @ 5/2, 8, 11, 7. The 7/1 won and only paid $13.80.
I made 62.90 on the race which was better than betting the race straight up as this was my 4th ranked horse and I wouldn't have bet him to begin with and I would have be down both of my win bets.

Since I'm trying to do this for a living I was scared to death to make such a large wager, but I was trying to impress my wife.
All she could think of was how many pair of shoes she could have bought with the money.

This method is now under my serious consideration.

Thanks for your inspiring posts.

Froggy

[froggy]

Ray,

Have you looked at using your method on other than turf surfaces and going back that far to find a pace line.

Froggy

[ray lopez]

Froggy,

Glad you're giving it a try and just make sure those 4 contenders are very strong...I've been doing a long time and i win 4 out of every five turf routes...
I also bet on sprints and routes but have a different bankroll and approaches
on them.
Good luck ..

Ray

[shoeless]

Ray,I would be interested in seeing how you attack a turf race if you wouldnt mind showing us.I have been playing turf races for over 30 years and hitting 4 out of 5 is very impressive to say the least.Jeff

[ray lopez]

The reason i win 4 out of 5 turf races is because i bet 4 horses in a race.
I'm satisfied in making a small profit and I look for races where the lowest
m/l favorite is 3-1 or more.If there's anything that makes the race confusing
to me,i pass.I average 14-17 playable races a week.
In sprints and dirt routes,these is my playing style.I have been using the top
3 in the V/DC and using the Bottom Line/Betting Line odds,i bet two horses
who are going off at twice the odds...For example,the Val4 odds of my top
3 picks were A horse=3/2 , B horse=2-1 , and C horse=3-1...I'll check the
tote board as close to post time as i can,and two horses,say the B horse is
going off at 4-1 and the A horse is going off at 3-1.I have my bets...It's funny
because that's all i do and i never look at anything else.(I have kept everything as simple as i can,because before, i'll check different readouts and
graphs...and the more confuse i became...no more)...I just make sure that
two horses are going off at twice the odds of my Val program,and that's it...
My win % is only 24%, but my ave.mutuel is $13.60 in the last six months i've
been using this.Another Validator user suggested this way of playing to me
in the racebook more than a year ago and i've researched this very well.
He said that he's just following Mark Cramer's advice to Sartin players
because our computer odds lines are non-linear...This one really works because i've really checked them out and been using it...