Top 3 Things - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 04-12-2007, 04:43 PM

Bud,Thanks for the reply.Good Cappin to you as well.Jeff

uncleroughy · 04-12-2007, 06:50 PM

I'm old fashioned (and old as well) so I'm still using Val 2. I do remember the Doc repeating that their are no rules. So I've found an occasional long shot by going back as much as 7 or 9 pacelines back. On 3\21 at Aqueduct in race 1, Val 2 had a $75.50 winner tiered #3 which was gettable using Pacelines 7 and 9 back. At 8.3f it was the designated place horse on the incremental graft and longshot potential #1 from that line. Maybe I'm crazy but I figure that if the horse is 5 years old or more maybe the owner or trainer wants to collect some return on his investment and Val 2 shows that it could happen.

Chip Napolitano · 04-13-2007, 03:52 PM

Shoeless,
1) I try to determine is the horse is improving or declining in his form cycle.Very few horses remain the same. They are either going up or going the other way.

2) If there are 2 real ugly lines in a row and I can not find an excuse the horse is out of consideration for the race.

3) I start at the bottom of the past performances and working my up to the last race try to find patterns of any kind that will be of help today in determining a line or lines to consider

Chip

peter e · 04-13-2007, 04:21 PM

This has worked well for me over the years:

Eliminate the horses that are obviously out of form. If there is any doubt leave a horse in.

Pick a paceline for all the remaining horses.

Let the program separate the contenders. In "Energy" this means eliminate any horses without a 1 or 2 in their readouts. I don't know about the other programs but there must be similar readouts that can narrow the field.

The key that makes this approach work is when picking pacelines there are 2 or 3 or more horses that you are unsure of, pass the race. This might be first time on the turf, first time on the grass, lots of back class but poor recent form, a horse that won its last race and then is layed off (especially cheap claimers). Anything that presents a question about a horses chances and there is no satisfactory answer. After doing this for a while you get a fairly good idea about what races may be unplayable, or races where you might demand higher than normal odds on your picks.

shoeless · 04-13-2007, 05:21 PM

Chip and Peter E thanks for the contributions and Im very happy that this post has gone well reply and view wise.I think it's great getting posts on these type of subjects rather then just all the time getting them on a computer program or selections.It's a nice change of pace.Jeff

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04-12-2007, 04:43 PM	#31
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,650	Bud,Thanks for the reply.Good Cappin to you as well.Jeff

04-12-2007, 06:50 PM	#32
uncleroughy AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 44	I'm old fashioned (and old as well) so I'm still using Val 2. I do remember the Doc repeating that their are no rules. So I've found an occasional long shot by going back as much as 7 or 9 pacelines back. On 3\21 at Aqueduct in race 1, Val 2 had a $75.50 winner tiered #3 which was gettable using Pacelines 7 and 9 back. At 8.3f it was the designated place horse on the incremental graft and longshot potential #1 from that line. Maybe I'm crazy but I figure that if the horse is 5 years old or more maybe the owner or trainer wants to collect some return on his investment and Val 2 shows that it could happen.

04-13-2007, 03:52 PM	#33
Chip Napolitano Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 108	Shoeless, 1) I try to determine is the horse is improving or declining in his form cycle.Very few horses remain the same. They are either going up or going the other way. 2) If there are 2 real ugly lines in a row and I can not find an excuse the horse is out of consideration for the race. 3) I start at the bottom of the past performances and working my up to the last race try to find patterns of any kind that will be of help today in determining a line or lines to consider Chip

04-13-2007, 04:21 PM	#34
peter e AlwNW2X Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 20	This has worked well for me over the years: Eliminate the horses that are obviously out of form. If there is any doubt leave a horse in. Pick a paceline for all the remaining horses. Let the program separate the contenders. In "Energy" this means eliminate any horses without a 1 or 2 in their readouts. I don't know about the other programs but there must be similar readouts that can narrow the field. The key that makes this approach work is when picking pacelines there are 2 or 3 or more horses that you are unsure of, pass the race. This might be first time on the turf, first time on the grass, lots of back class but poor recent form, a horse that won its last race and then is layed off (especially cheap claimers). Anything that presents a question about a horses chances and there is no satisfactory answer. After doing this for a while you get a fairly good idea about what races may be unplayable, or races where you might demand higher than normal odds on your picks.

04-13-2007, 05:21 PM	#35
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,650	Chip and Peter E thanks for the contributions and Im very happy that this post has gone well reply and view wise.I think it's great getting posts on these type of subjects rather then just all the time getting them on a computer program or selections.It's a nice change of pace.Jeff