Preakness

[lone speed]

If there were any "cardinal rule" from Howard Sartin; it was repeated many times.....

Do Not Use the Kentucky Derby Paceline.........

Ted,

I am well aware that the computation of RDSS is from Validator 4....but if there are any value of evaluating 10 furlong pacelines by itself....Nyquist should be on top of Exaggerator....Nyquist ran closest to the pace of race of the Kentucky Derby....

(JMHO)If one is to evaluate the Kentucky Derby paceline, it behooves one to use the Derby paceline up till the mile marker; as postulated by Jim Bradshaw.

[lone speed]

I need to clarify my last post succinctly before Bill V. chimes in and I get "bombarded"..

Howard Sartin wrote of one "rule" in the methodology and it was "Do not use the Kentucky Derby paceline."

Jim Bradshaw never said to use the Derby pace line...ever...

But in Jim Bradshaw's "marathon match-up", he advised to use the mile times to match up races for marathon races. The Preakness is at a distance of 1mile and 3/16th which is considered a marathon distance.

Now in evaluating the Preakness contenders, I will seek out the best "mile fractions"......

So a "caveat"......Jim Bradshaw never said to use the Derby paceline.........

From the works of Bill Lyster in marathon races, especially in Bill Lyster's posts n Derby races and races similar to the Derby distance of a mile and 1/4....following Jim Bradshaw's Marathon Match-up method is worth a "second-look". (JMHO)

[ClockerDan]

If the track is mucked up due to rain, rain and more rain brings more horses into a 3 horse race if it were ideal conditions. Nyquist would never loose 8-10 times. Now 60% rain starting early right on thru! ALL bets off. Nyquist is that good and should be able to handle a muddy track, but that doesn't always equate to a win. I'd love to see them run on a fast track just to watch Nyquist work . The bullseye is on his back. Just hope he wins and EVERY horse and rider comes out healthy. Dan

[DanBoals]

Ok, I reworked the Preakness, taking out the Derby lines... Not sure if that is ideal, since the pace of the Derby is likely to be the pace of the Preakness, but what the hell, will give it a go.

11-Stradivari comes up on top, but, and this is a huge one for me, he has never run in a graded race, so I can't really put him in as the winner. Maybe 2nd or 3rd if he is lucky. It is VERY hard for me to measure class on a horse that only has 2 wins, but with his 136.1 time at the mile, I just can't see him winning. That said, rapidly improving 3 year olds are dangerous.

3 - Nyquist, still my pick for the win.

10-Fellowship comes up 3rd, but it is a GP line, and I think those are overrated, and he could not keep pace with CD line last out; which is similar to the San Vicente that Nyquist and Exaggerator ran in. Plus, he has not even placed in a graded race as a 3 year old, so, I have him show at best.

1 - Cherry Wine has not placed in a graded race either and his 9f times are not that great, maybe a place in the superfecta.

5 - Exaggerator, still my pick for place, hell of a horse.

9 - Abiding Star, runs great against inferior horses, question is how will he do against grade 1 horses. My guess is that he winds up 4th or worse not being able to sustain his pace. The rain might help this one though.

[Mark]

I don't use variants in my Configuration so the pacelines are not adjusted for anything but ITV. However, that said I will adjust final time on occasion for comparison purposes using Bradshaw's Universal Adjustment of 6.4 seconds to add or subtract a 1/2 furlong. In Trackmaster's world a point of variant is worth .0125 times the distance of the paceline in time. Off their last lines Stradivari ran an equalized 9.5f 1:56.13 and Nyquist a 1:56.4. However, the pace of the Derby was much faster than Stradivari's Allowance race. Nyquist is a much faster horse as evidenced from his sprint races. Stradivari is a sustained horse that can run forwardly given a slower pace. Abiding Star did not run fast fractions in any of his sprint races and appears to have no fight in him if he is headed. Uncle Lino has one sprint at SA where he ran close to a very fast 6.5f sprint and ran a 22 -45.1 -109.6 -116.3 in the lead as a 2 yo.
So where are these horses going to be as they approach the clubhouse turn? The handicapping task is made more difficult with the forecast of heavy rain. If the track is so sloppy that the front runners are going to be sending sheets of muck back on the horses running behind that will certainly discourage runners who have never experienced it before. Track maintenance will play a significant role particularly if the rain comes early in the day and is persistent. With the extended time between races I am sure that they will float the track between each race and try to squeeze the water out and not let it penetrate to the track base. Since Pimlico has tight high banked turns this water will by gravity and maintenance work end up down on the rail. The best part of the track will be the crown which will be out toward the 6 to 8 path.
In this scenario I see Uncle Limo and Nyquist going to the lead as a tandem, with Nyquist's rider trying to force Limo down on the rail. There are only two horses that seem to have the ability to get outside and run late. Exaggerator has demonstrated this ability and Stradivari has pressed but may be able to settle a little farther off the pace breaking from the outside post to stay out of the wall of muck being sent back on the others.
But we are going to have to guess as there are not enough past performances on a number of these horses to confidently conclude. I am impressed by Stradivari's final fraction at 9f. My question is how will he react to being 5 lengths off the lead?
Regardless, I believe the race boils down to 3 obvious horses, Nyquist, Exaggerator and Stradivari. If the latter is as good as he looks off that last race he would be my pick at 5/1 or higher.

[Ted Craven]

Not much to add to the excellent above notes. FWIW, IMO, calibre of competition matters and if I ever figure out the reason for that - aside from the history of results overall - I'll write it down

Thus, it's hard to credit Stradivari's performances in the same league as those of Nyquist and Exaggerator. And also FWIW, given that 'Class' (or calibre of competition faced) matters, for me it doesn't matter so much using the Derby lines, or not, for the Top 2.

I like Nyquist. Though Exaggerator could always reverse the Derby. Not much to bet on, for me.

Good luck everyone!

[Bill V.]

Lone Speed
I agree with the rule . I could never use the Derby line .

I listened to the race. It was very exciting , I'm happy for the exaggerater analysis winners

[Bill V.]

Hi Lone speed
Using RDSS2 in Val mode and not changing Doc's default settings

In a match race using the derby lines
BLBL as a whole has the Nyq- Exag tandem reversed

Phase 1 is velocity based so Nyq will always be ahead of Exag

VDC is Velocity relative to Deceleration so since Ex decelerated less it gets a better VDC

[ClockerDan]

Seems like the rides Gutierrez gave Nyquist up to the Preakness was how he was able to rate, relax and harness the raw power that made this athlete into the champ he desered. Don't know what the instructions given to him were, but the words went right out the window as soon as the gates opened. Maybe wrong decisions or ride or both? The surface wasn't the factor - the out come would have been a lot different in my humble opinion. The ride given was the reason for the defeat. Plain n simple! Hopefully all the horses come out happy n healthy to run again on a dry fast surface, then let the chips fall where they may.

[DanBoals]

I don't know ClockerDan, I agree he shouldn't have tried to run a 22:1 in the mud, but Nyquist looked tired to me. Never seen him like that before. Not sure if it was the weather and mud, combined with the fast first fraction, or if he gave more in the Derby than we thought and just didn't have his A game. Exaggerator was definitely the better horse on Saturday, he was more comfortable in the mud and timed his move perfectly. It will surprise me if either of these horses wins the Belmont though. These last two races have already taken a toll on Nyquist, and I would be surprised if Exaggerator was at the top of his game with only 3 weeks rest coming up. Of course, you never know, that is why they run the races

Dan