Wipe-Outs

[tfm]

I have a better idea. We'll let Tim post his 4 to 5 picks per race and you can show up every so often with your comments but NEVER with a pick, and I'll 'retire' to my Twitter page.

No skin off my balls.

Not like I have the time to do this **** anyway.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by tfm

I have a better idea. We'll let Tim post his 4 to 5 picks per race and you can show up every so often with your comments but NEVER with a pick, and I'll 'retire' to my Twitter page.

No skin off my balls.

Not like I have the time to do this **** anyway.

Hey T....just ignore him , like I do....he gets on everyone's nerves

I appreciate all that post here...gives me a chance to learn different techniques

mike

[pktruckdriver]

mHey Man for what is worth I appreciate your picks to, it gives me something to look at, and try to see why you choose them, don't quit, cause one guys rubs you the wrong way, plenty of others are greatful, I know I am.

patrick

[tfm]

Alright. I have a break between races and will try to pick this up again.

Once again, the wipe-out is a race where EVERY horse in the race is losing ground to the winner in the last call(s). When you think about it, this is a phenomenal thing, it's the ultimate beat down. YET, this type of race happens more often than one would expect. (I'll expand on this at a later point.) Now, people don't have a problem when a figure maker tells them that a horse ran a HUGE number. Of course, some would look at the replay and see if the trip was a factor or look to see if there was a track bias, etc.;but for the most part, these HUGE numbers aren't contested. Well, one way of looking at a race is by how fast it was run. Another way of looking at it is by what 'type' of race it was. (To qualify, the wipe-out is the BEST case of any of the different types of races. In other words, whatever the type, there's a wipe-out of it.) The wipe-out is the equivalent of the highest figure. Of course, like the numeric figure one needs to investigate and try to discern WHY a horse was able to wipe-out the field. Was it just that much better or was it aided in some way by race circumstances, track bias, etc.

Here's what happened so far today.

Wipeouts 8/07

WO

R3

#1, Lady Shakespeare
#4, Mullins Beach

Woodbine T-bred - Race 3
# Win Place Show
1 $3.60 $2.30 $2.10
4 . $3.10 $2.30
6 . . $3.20

$2.00 Exacta 1-4 $9.50


R7

#2, Nalee's Crown
#7, Aurora Lights

Woodbine T-bred - Race 7
# Win Place Show
2 $13.80 $6.00 $3.10
7 . $4.10 $2.90
1 . . $4.00


$2.00 Exacta 2-7 $55.60

SAR

R3

#1A, Boowoogemalia
#2, Miss Fleetfoot

Saratoga - Race 3
# Win Place Show
2 $7.50 $3.60 $3.00
4 . $3.50 $3.10
9 . . $4.90


Note the following: while I require 1 length displacement for the angle typically, I reduce this to 1/2 length at WO. The reason for this is because: (1) there are relatively few wipe-outs at WO and (2) with TRAKUS technology the beaten lengths are absolutely exact. This brings up the question of how many LESS wipe-outs there would be at the tracks without TRAKUS. And, probably is an indication of how tough it really is to wipe-out a field (with exceptions, of course).

And, once again, this aren't my picks. I'm not necessarily playing these horses, though I could be. I'm just putting out the day's wipe-outs (that I come across) and monitoring them.

[tfm]

8/07

SAR R9, #2, Missile (race is loaded with speed and he's one of them, and he's going UP in class)

[tfm]

8/08

SAR

R1

#1, Global Effect
#10, Trigger's Missle

both are coming out of maiden claiming wipe-outs on sloppy tracks --- sloppy tracks throw the highest number of wipe-outs

I was looking at the 10 right up to post time and wondering why it was only 20:1 and not much higher. Clearly, he's not a very logical horse.

Saratoga - Race 1
# Win Place Show
9 $16.80 $7.90 $5.80
10 . $23.00 $8.10
5 . . $5.60


Anyone smart enough to hook him up with Serling's pick gets a nice exacta:

$1.00 Exacta 9-10 $265.50

I didn't bet the race.

[tfm]

Here are the rest of the wipe-outs for the day at SAR:

R6

#7, Ketubah


R8

#9, Mystic Miracle


R10

#7, Commentator (muddy track wipe-out)

[tfm]

8/08

WO R2

#4, Star Prospector (chalk; but he qualifies, barely)

WO R8

#4, Carem Crescent (2 races, 2 wipe-outs; takes on open company today)

[seattlesnake]

TFM,

interested in Trakus....is that the charts you have shown that breaks it down in segments....if it is i am very interested in learning more about it.

Tnxs in advance

Jess

[tfm]

TRAKUS is an electronic tracking system in use at KEE, DMR, and WO, that provides ACCURATE times, beaten lengths and ground covered. This is HUGE step up from the other tracks, where this data is provided by the chartmaker.

I generate the charts. They're simply a graph of the results charts. Isn't it puzzling, with all the different approaches to this game that NO ONE has actually taken the time to identify the different types of races and what they 'look like'? All the focus is on TIME, either final or splits, and on the INDIVIDUAL horse, rather than the WHOLE race. You'd think after identifying the different types of running styles for the horses, someone might move on to the race. Or better yet, START with the race and work to the horse.

I suppose, THIS abstraction (the graph) is just not as useful as a NUMERIC one (figures).