Top 3 Things - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 04-10-2007, 04:08 PM

Bob,I value your opinion can you elaborate more on your 3 point if you dont mind?Jeff

Cellarfunk · 04-11-2007, 10:28 AM

Shoe...thanks for getting this rolling again, some real valuable thoughts in here.

I look for

1. Form
2. Speed
3. Position

Pretty vague, but in my minds eye, I know what I'm looking to find. I still, also need to account for the track it came from and that days variant. I still have trouble using lines from TP, they just always seem to be too fast. Also lines from tracks in the west going on horses running today somewhere in the east. Kind of like Cobalt Blue last Saturday in the Illinois Derby. Still struggin with trying to make those adjustments.

shoeless · 04-11-2007, 06:00 PM

Cellarfunk,No problem I think no matter how long you have been at this game you can still learn.Im a little disappointed that this post has gotten 657 views and ONLY 21 REPLIES.I guess the in the closet pace and cap zombies wont come out until there is a full moon.Jeff

Fast4522 · 04-11-2007, 06:43 PM

OK, the moon may be full or it might be 5 o'clock somewhere.

Like to pick lines from the honest horse, hate ugly lines last two combined 25 lengths, rockingham rejects, forgot no more flats there.

emilio840 · 04-11-2007, 10:28 PM

Hi Jeff. I just spot play and I don't use any program to hcp with. I do use Aodds98 but only to read the drf. I look for lone Early and Lone Sprinters in routes. I am trying to learn the Hat's way. And I am sticking to it.

Sorry that I can not help you in picking pace lines.

When I used to pick two horses to win I used to look at the last 4 races and pick the highest speed rating plus the track V. I would put the top 4 in the computer and than pick the line with the highest speed ratings. And that was it.

emilio

froggy · 04-11-2007, 10:59 PM

Ok Shoeless.

I can take a hint.
I'll take off my zombie hat and come out of the closet
Here is what I look for. (more or less)

First I look at:

1) Recent action, workouts, and overall general form. ("HOW WILL YOUR HORSE RUN TODAY")

2) Tandems

3) Speed. (early/late/total)

4) What has the horse been doing lately and with whom.

Then I look for a pace line that might represent today's probable effort.
I will go as many as 5 or 6 lines down if necessary.

6) No mud or slop. (I find that the SR is usually elevated for those races)

7) Never use the highest SR in his running line (They are usually an aberration)

8) Avoid projected or extracted if at all possible.

There, that's my three things.

I have been handicapping for a lot of years and I am finding the more I know the less I know.

Froggy

Dumptruk · 04-12-2007, 02:45 AM

Here's my 3 things:

1) Take a line with today's track and today's distance if possible. For example, race is at GP today, last 5 lines are at Calder. I sometimes go to that 6th line to get another GP line. Especially if that line is better than the Calder ones. Horses for courses is a big deal to me. But there are always exceptions of course.

2) Take a line in a current form cycle with today's connections. Don't use a line with Scott Lake listed as the trainer if today's trainer is Jeff Odintz.

3) Don't be so forgiving of trouble. Sometimes you'll see a trouble line and assume that the horse ran badly because of it. But reality is that the horse is really just going off form. Judgement call here.

There's a lot more things to cover, but you would have to write a book. I think paceline selection is somewhat of an art and should be done by the handicapper. That's one thing I like about the Sartin programs is that none of them have automatic paceline selection. You have to do the grunt work to make it happen.

shoeless · 04-12-2007, 06:09 AM

Froggy and Dumptruk good posts THANKS Jeff

JimG · 04-12-2007, 09:20 AM

One thing I have noticed, for what it's worth, when using Val3 or RDSS, I generally get better results if I choose lines that not only are somewhat recent, but very close in speed ratings. My better success has been in races where 5 speed points or less separate the top and bottom horses.

Jim

noddub62 · 04-12-2007, 01:08 PM

Mr. No Shoes,

This is a great thread that you started but I think that there are as many different thoughts as there were views, me included. I have enjoyed this game for close to 30 years and I've tried just about all of it from A to Z. I think you just have to go with what works best for your individual style of play after a lot of experience and work.

For me, being from Texas which is adjacent to Oklahoma, I am begining to pick up some "HAT" voodoo from across the big Red River. At times when I can get in the "Zone" and get the flow of the race going it is like something I've not experienced in my handicapping ever before. To get in this "Zone", upon reflection, I don't give too hoots and a holler about anything but fast horses, not recency, not off-tracks, not nothing, and this came from all of the Match-Up info from the masters of Match-Up, Mr. Hat and Mr. Richie. Now saying that, it's not easy to do always but you can train yourself to find that zone, I believe.

Shoeless, I enjoy your posts very much and know that this wasn't worth much but at least you know I don't always hide in the closet.

Good Capping to you and keep smiling,
Bud

04-11-2007, 10:28 AM	#22
Cellarfunk Grade 3 Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Omaha Posts: 72	Pacelines Shoe...thanks for getting this rolling again, some real valuable thoughts in here. I look for 1. Form 2. Speed 3. Position Pretty vague, but in my minds eye, I know what I'm looking to find. I still, also need to account for the track it came from and that days variant. I still have trouble using lines from TP, they just always seem to be too fast. Also lines from tracks in the west going on horses running today somewhere in the east. Kind of like Cobalt Blue last Saturday in the Illinois Derby. Still struggin with trying to make those adjustments. __________________ CFunk

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04-10-2007, 04:08 PM	#21
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	Bob,I value your opinion can you elaborate more on your 3 point if you dont mind?Jeff

04-11-2007, 06:00 PM	#23
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	Cellarfunk,No problem I think no matter how long you have been at this game you can still learn.Im a little disappointed that this post has gotten 657 views and ONLY 21 REPLIES.I guess the in the closet pace and cap zombies wont come out until there is a full moon.Jeff

04-11-2007, 06:43 PM	#24
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	OK, the moon may be full or it might be 5 o'clock somewhere. Like to pick lines from the honest horse, hate ugly lines last two combined 25 lengths, rockingham rejects, forgot no more flats there.

04-11-2007, 10:28 PM	#25
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Hi Jeff. I just spot play and I don't use any program to hcp with. I do use Aodds98 but only to read the drf. I look for lone Early and Lone Sprinters in routes. I am trying to learn the Hat's way. And I am sticking to it. Sorry that I can not help you in picking pace lines. When I used to pick two horses to win I used to look at the last 4 races and pick the highest speed rating plus the track V. I would put the top 4 in the computer and than pick the line with the highest speed ratings. And that was it. emilio

04-11-2007, 10:59 PM	#26
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Ok Shoeless. I can take a hint. I'll take off my zombie hat and come out of the closet Here is what I look for. (more or less) First I look at: 1) Recent action, workouts, and overall general form. ("HOW WILL YOUR HORSE RUN TODAY") 2) Tandems 3) Speed. (early/late/total) 4) What has the horse been doing lately and with whom. Then I look for a pace line that might represent today's probable effort. I will go as many as 5 or 6 lines down if necessary. 6) No mud or slop. (I find that the SR is usually elevated for those races) 7) Never use the highest SR in his running line (They are usually an aberration) 8) Avoid projected or extracted if at all possible. There, that's my three things. I have been handicapping for a lot of years and I am finding the more I know the less I know. Froggy

04-12-2007, 02:45 AM	#27
Dumptruk Grade 2 Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Northern California Posts: 75	Here's my 3 things: 1) Take a line with today's track and today's distance if possible. For example, race is at GP today, last 5 lines are at Calder. I sometimes go to that 6th line to get another GP line. Especially if that line is better than the Calder ones. Horses for courses is a big deal to me. But there are always exceptions of course. 2) Take a line in a current form cycle with today's connections. Don't use a line with Scott Lake listed as the trainer if today's trainer is Jeff Odintz. 3) Don't be so forgiving of trouble. Sometimes you'll see a trouble line and assume that the horse ran badly because of it. But reality is that the horse is really just going off form. Judgement call here. There's a lot more things to cover, but you would have to write a book. I think paceline selection is somewhat of an art and should be done by the handicapper. That's one thing I like about the Sartin programs is that none of them have automatic paceline selection. You have to do the grunt work to make it happen.

04-12-2007, 06:09 AM	#28
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,649	Froggy and Dumptruk good posts THANKS Jeff

04-12-2007, 09:20 AM	#29
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	One thing I have noticed, for what it's worth, when using Val3 or RDSS, I generally get better results if I choose lines that not only are somewhat recent, but very close in speed ratings. My better success has been in races where 5 speed points or less separate the top and bottom horses. Jim

04-12-2007, 01:08 PM	#30
noddub62 Budman Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 801	Mr. No Shoes, This is a great thread that you started but I think that there are as many different thoughts as there were views, me included. I have enjoyed this game for close to 30 years and I've tried just about all of it from A to Z. I think you just have to go with what works best for your individual style of play after a lot of experience and work. For me, being from Texas which is adjacent to Oklahoma, I am begining to pick up some "HAT" voodoo from across the big Red River. At times when I can get in the "Zone" and get the flow of the race going it is like something I've not experienced in my handicapping ever before. To get in this "Zone", upon reflection, I don't give too hoots and a holler about anything but fast horses, not recency, not off-tracks, not nothing, and this came from all of the Match-Up info from the masters of Match-Up, Mr. Hat and Mr. Richie. Now saying that, it's not easy to do always but you can train yourself to find that zone, I believe. Shoeless, I enjoy your posts very much and know that this wasn't worth much but at least you know I don't always hide in the closet. Good Capping to you and keep smiling, Bud