False Early horses, %Med Tool Etc.

[AwesomeAgain]

The screen shot is from race 1 last year on Belmont Stakes Day. Visual Pace Bias says 22 or late. But if you look at the Esp it shows and E for the 6 horse. Which made the race Early. The 3 General Partner won the race. And his E/ep shows the 2nd ranked horse in E/ep. I won the other races in the sequence and the Early Pick 5 was almost an additional years salary.

[Mitch44]

As I continue I'll get into analysis of the Velocity- POH screen.

However for now let me dispel something and that is NEW Pace. For me this is a non starter and for this reason. When Sartin began in the very early beginning of his venture into pace in the days of old when Pirco existed Sartin would rank the FR's 1, 2, 3 etc. and after doing that added up those ranks to create a line score, low score was best. Now that favors horses that can put together two good FR.

All FR's have an influence on a race. And to determine that influence they started to combine FR.'s and this is where EP, SP, FX Etc. was born.. To keep as a Factor they demanded a 63% win rate to remand a Factor. FX at that time was a near miss but was added later in Sartin 's later programs.

It was this compounding of FR's that moved Pace handicapping forward. Other winning Factors were developed later such as % Med, V/DC etc.
Note: See Tom Brohamer's book" Modern Pace Handicapping" page 110, copyrighted and published in 1991 for all this.

These factors emphasis a horse putting together 2 good Fr's. Howard & Tom have always emphasized 2 good FR. Throughout their lives and Tom never disparaged Howard in any way or talked bad of Howard as some of his teachers did and he removed from the Group of teachers.
This emphasis of ranking and creating a line score and the compounding of FR. into Factors ( 2 good FR's) goes back Long before any New Pace. To me New Pace is a non starter and does not in anyway supersede Sartin's Factors etc. No absolutely does not.

Now Dick Schwartz is a great handicapper and this is not to disparage him in anyway. He has nuances and learned experiences that he has learned that he employs. And they can't be incorporated into New Pace. You can only get those by joining or taking his programs. Even with that he most likely won't part with his most treasured findings. And he's earned that as a brilliant handicapper and genius at research and computer writing.

From learned experiences and years of work I can take the Velocity-POH screen and do all kind of things, some of which I'll share

So where does that leave us. I would recommend you forget about New Pace within RDSS as it is not a magic bullet your looking for. There is and are Factors within RDSS both new and old Factors that supersede it and will outperform it. There also are better ways to get contenders and secondary horses for Ex. etc.

Now there will be the naysayers that will swear by it and to each their own , we need their money in the game to profit. One can do or believe in whatever or who ever they wish that's their choice. Tin (LT1) and I and a few others won't see you at the cashier window. Freedom gives you the choice to profit by your choices or die by your sword. Great handicapping and wishing you great choices but my recommendation to you is to to forget about New Pace and learning Sartin concepts and pace hand. is a major course and challenge in its self let alone be diverted to something that's not going to move you forward.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

AwesomeAgain: I agree that a lost you'll never forget and a lesson learned.
What I can see from your screenshot was you sorted this on Total Pace which won't give you much of an insight into a race. You can improve and up your game by sorting on other Factors on this screen. I actually love this screen and never do a race without consulting it.

Try sorting on % Med. What this will do is aligned the horses by highest to lowest % Med. and this is how races are run. In other words will put this by their ESP and the order will be E, Ep ,P, Sp, S and L Now with this view, pay attention Matchers, you can Matchup horses by running style and determine who the 1 or 2 best E types are and who the best S types are ( SP S, L etc.)

Within these two groups your looking for horses that put together 2 good Fr, from this view Early types the best of the E types will carry their speed into the 2nd FR and run 2 good Fr. . From this sort looking to the left the best of E types will be ranked top on SC second call, now you can look at the 3Rd Fr and see which of the E types decelerate the most and least. The best E type is the one with the best 3Rd Fr or least deceleration. This is also confirmed by the best DCL # and total energy of the E types . This form of Match up gets rid of the worst of the E types. Depending on the make up of the race you can 3,4, or all 5 Contenders be in this group.

Now the S group your looking for the same a horse that can put together 2 good Fr's and because they lag in the 1st FR your looking for the ones that can put together 2 good 2nd & 3Rd Fr. On other screens this would this HE or hidden Energy Factor.
Of the S types the worst are one run horses that have or run only one good FR., usually the 3rd FR. They may get a 3rd or Place showing but very seldom win because they can't get up in time and win. They can win when all the speed collapse from a speed duel and they all have very bad deceleration and very poor 3rd Fr's . But you'll be able to see this also, requiring a couple of E types with very poor 3r Fr and very high % Med of 70% etc.
Again the best of S types have good DCL # and good Total Pace #
Note: I also switch sometimes to the Energy screen and look at HE on that screen for confirmation.
This is how I do the Matchup on this screen, eliminate non contenders & get the race down to my two horses, be it two E, 2 S types or best of each depending on the makeup of the race. it allows you to downgrade horses from winning and separating contenders.

Now I leave all 5 of them in and this is important for 2 reasons: if a horse owns just 1 Fr (best at that Fr, number 1, it has an influence on the race and if you scratch it the Matchup will change, also many times your 3rd or 4th choice can complete the EX, especially if you have a good contender method that accounts for multiple things or Factors, lastly if you keep a model or track profile otherwise your model will be distorted.
Now I have most of the time the top 2 or 3 contenders for win. To take this further( Matchup) and confirm my findings, especially when horses may be close doing this such as 4 or so of any one type, sort on TS or True speed this will rank the horses that are best. This sort along with DCL and Total Energy on this screen allow me to separate horses that are close on TS.

After doing this I can predict the BLBL and and other Factors before ever looking at them in most cases. I can also see if one horse will run a 1st Fr that will force others to chase it and not run their 3r Fr, when this can happened it will distort even the best Factors within the program. So pay attention to Gaps in that 1st FR.

Hoping this helps most of you and it should as this is one of the best screens in the program and shouldn't be ignored, its the springboard for all the best Factors in the program. And for Matchers these numbers on this screen( Feet per Second Fractions) are superior because they account for track to track, variants surface, distance and all adjustments. Even Jim Bradshaw didn't teach this because all or most couldn't grasp what he taught or make it work, however he did do all these adjustments but in his head. He had a genius IQ plus wrote the programs perhaps maybe not one for Sartin so he had a complete grasp of all this to include adjustments. If asked he would tell you how he adjusted for tract to track, and their variants, surfaces etc. Doing the Matchup in his head. Doing this would totally confused Matchers unless they had a genius IQ, They get winners with what he taught them but they'll lose races because of not incorporating these adjustments. The adjustments within RDSS are the best out there and superior to anything out there, and even jimmy would tell you to use them. So if a Matcher used the FPS and FR on this screen they could greatly improve their game. And for non Matcher this screen will enhance your game and is far superior to to the segment screen. Again its the springboard for every Factor in RDSS. Use it or lose it, the race that is.

Mitch44

[gptx]

Very good post Mitch! I love the velocity-POH screen and you gave me some more insight and info. on how to use it combined with other screens, thanks!

[AwesomeAgain]

Funny you mention sorting by %Med. I started doing that recently and getting a clear picture of who is early who is not. Also can so if the the early horse carries his speed into the 2nd fraction. The more we understand concepts the easier handicapping becomes. Thanks for your help.

[Mitch44]

Sartin said;" Inconsistency is the bane of handicappers" Basically bane means ruin.

Those who apply a hap hazard approach are destined to to the poor house and will meet disaster.
That means to apply a consistent approach to picking contenders, pacelines. It also means the setting within the program. Ted can elaborate on the recommended setting.

Without a consistent approach on your setting your not going to get consistent results. This is something most players pay little attention to or they start experimenting with them thinking they are better with their own adjustments. This was looked at several years back and the setting haven't changed since them. Some have their own idea what it should be.
Another way to produce better results is not to use aberrant Variants' such as -25 or +25 Most horses can be gotten with more then one line, if it has a better line use it. There becomes a point where a variant becomes totally inaccurate. Sartin later did away with 100% of the Variant, He found customers were adjusting themselves out of winners. At 50% adjustment on the Variant their winners increased.

Someone earlier asked how much is a Beaten Length in the Program? Back in the early beginnings he used 1 BL for each 1/5 of a second. That worked well until Doc got some Nasa Engineers and real big brains as teaching members. For ex. at 6 F that would be 5 B L for 1 second. That's totally inaccurate and more like 5.70. That .70 may seem minuscule, how races have you seen that were won or lost by less than almost 3/4 of a length. There is no one set number, it really depends on the distance of the segment being measured and the time of that segment. This is all computed within the program for you, there's some ways to cheat on that. For one you can make your own chart for all dis.'s and time etc. Trust me tedious. I used Excel to help, still tedious.

One doesn't have to know all that to be successful. You have to learn to trust the program ,unlike handicappers the program is consistent and doesn't make mistakes. Trust it, that's a problem that has been solved.
One needs to record results and find out what works, than it becomes yours and your confidence will grow. Find out what works than ignore the noise.

Mitch 44

[Mitch44]

Back to E horses and NTL.
E horses once they start decelerating it pretty much continues to decelerate. What separates these horses is the rate of deceleration. The more class the horse has the slower it decelerates and the cheaper horses decelerates more rapidly in both the 2nd FR and particularity in the 3rd FR.

Be careful in throwing out NTL horses just from the 1st FR., as Bradshaw said; "The race starts when the gate opens." NTL horses when you have several you should look at how they break from the gate. A NTL that breaks fast from the gate and has a lot of 1'S from the gate has an advantage because NTL horses trait is to give up when headed. Take this into evaluation / consideration when you have several.

Segment screen is a screen I don't use because it deceptive and most don't interpret it correctly. The 3rd panel is not indicative of the finish. Old users really get this wrong because at one time Sartin had a program that had horses run across the screen and it did indicate the winner. BTY you get that by looking at the best Factors in the program in the form of ranking. That 3rd panel consist of True Speed & 3rd FR, now True speed does consist of the early running of a race somewhat but SC or compounded FR's are better, HE, FX etc.. This panel is more indicative of the best S P,S, L horses etc. also HE is which tends to get overlooked. For Ex. a 6F race HE would be the 2nd & 3FRor 4F of the race its equal to EP & Sec. Call which also is 4F of the race. Now think about that for a while and let that marinate in your head for awhile. Naturally in longer races the sustained group of horses have some advantage but horses there go wire to wire also . So at all distances speed is important.

In all races speed is important and can cause horses not to run their races because of the Matchup as I demonstrated with the #1 horse that had a 60.00 1st FR this effect also has an effect on the S group not getting up also. Speed has an effect at all distances & races. Therefore I prefer to use the Velocity-POH screen. I can easily see HE on that screen & if two or so are close I can consult the Energy Screen and get the who is best on HE. Most of the time I separate close S types by the 1st FR. as the one closest to the pace are best when close on 2 & 3 FR or HE also close to where the 1st FR is is Total Pace or Energy which is important also.

Using the sort on the Velocity -POH screen is powerful in deciphering a race and for Matchers supersedes Bradshaw version on the site that most perform because they are not making all the adjustments needed & occur in a race. On the site does not include adjustments which cause them to lose many races. Bradshaw did make all these adjustments in his head with his genius I.Q. 90% or more can't get or understand or get what's on the site or basic why would you cause them to fail by overloading them with advance concepts etc. Of course it can be done and if you have a genius I.Q. and you mentally can make these adjustments. They are reduced to speed handicappers , low paying Favorites and many wire to wire horses. If your smart you will employ the Matchup from the Velocity- POH screen, otherwise good luck with that. I've hammered this point home before but Matcher have stubborn resistance to change and are driven to Match Jimmy( Bradshaw). It isn't happening! Get with the program.

In my association with Sartin & Bradshaw I observed this in answering questions. First of all they hated dumb questions however after a few drinks at the bar etc. they were more engaging to those types. But many were scared as hell to ask or talk to them. What they both did was answer & talk to them on their level & what they could conceive and understand. And talk much more at a higher level of education with the likes of Brohamer and Glen Conley Etc. Of course my dumb a-- did a lot of listening as did my buddy Tim( LT1). We did ask questions later in the night and they were kind to us.

BTW Tom Brohamer never went to the Bar and was kind to answer questions at the track.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Good stuff Mitch. Oh those nights at the bar priceless. Glen C was the teacher who lead me from loser to the land of winners working with me at Seminars and by phone during the week. I do miss all those togethers in the old days.
Tim

[Mitch44]

The 3 FR Feet Per Second on the Velocity -POH Screen are the foundation for everything Sartin, within the RDSS program, they are computer driven, consistent and make no mistakes in those numbers.

I trust these numbers to the maximum degree and when wrong most likely one has selected a bad line to represent the horse. I'll get into other reasons below. This is a big reason I stress users review the line picked to see if you agree with using Sartin guidelines of; "Using the best race of last 3 at a comparable distance & surface." Where they go wrong is a "comparable distance & surface". I go down the lines in PP's to wherever that takes. If line 9 or 10 so be it. If you accept the automatic line pick of the program expect to lose races. Verifying picked lines doesn't take that long. Program lines may be OK if only making a $ 2 bet or a fun bet but when you start betting serious money and combinations of bets where your $ or extension (increases) its a must. Your brain is smarter for confirming lines then the computer is programed. Going into a race you never want to give up any edge, especially with serious money Your better off doing one race correctly than doing 3 or 4 automatically and losing a winner to to poor ranking or being ranked 5th of your 5 contenders.

I have already talked about; "Inconsistency is the bane of handicappers." and fooling with setting or not using the recommended setting. I talked Ted into reducing the + & - variant setting to align with Sartin teaching and really from what previous setting of accepting any variant and adjusting themselves out of winners. There becomes a point where variants can not be accurately measured no matter how its done. My setting are -15 & +15. BTW on the Original Screen of the horses you can easily see all the variants neatly in one place. This gives you the chance to go back and change a line that's out of the norm Most horses or winners can be gotten with more than one line.

How else do we lose races when everything you did was correct? By playing a race with too many unknown factors. Sartin stated any race with 2 or more unknown factors should be avoided. For example 2 FTS, 2 unproven on todays surface or distance, 2 horses stretching out etc. While there are ways to judge stretch outs and evaluate them, the horse has to still prove it so its an unknown . I have my own criteria I use to evaluate them . Players get so involved with separating contenders they forget to evaluate the race overall for risk due to unknown factors.

Pick 5 good contenders, review pacelines for confirmation, check variants on Original screen, evaluate overall race for risk & Unknown Factors. TRUST the NUMBERS!!! This should get you to 65% win rate betting two horses, Sartin standard for success and or to become a teaching member.

Good handicapping,
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Well done Mitch and thanks for sharing all his valuable info. Hopefully folks pay attention to your info since you are a proven WINNER.
Tim