Tampa Bay 2-13-14

[Jeebs]

Using #6 Spintastic as our fulcrum horse (46.4), as he has a few + and (+) races against it. Let's handicap:

#2 Tenth Legion: 1st off a 229-day layoff. No Line.
#3 Danielle's Honor: + race 11 days ago at the wrong distance. Line 2 at 7F was a (-) race, while Line 3 against the fulcrum was a winning MC effort. If the Line 1 route had been a (-), I likely would toss, but it was a good effort, so I will go to Line 3 and see where it takes me.
#4 El Chicotico: 109-day layoff. No line.
#5 Wambri: Line 1 was (-) at wrong distance and Line 2 was (-) at the right distance against a pace faster than today's fulcrum, but didn't make any moves. Has a win against today's fulcrum pace, but that was 271 days ago. No value. No line.
#6 Spintastic: Our fulcrum horse. Made a huge turn time move and seized the lead before flattening. Nothing wrong with using Line 1.
#7 Hebop: Has no standout efforts vs. today's pace. His initial TAM outing was a (-) race which was all over the place. Bennett can be deadly 2nd time over the track, but I'm playing the horse, not the trainer here. No line.
#8 Winco: Quite a few wrong distance races, but taking Line 1 off the Adj. SR and one turn line. However, no fulcrum races. Wait and see.

#3,6 and 8 are evenly matched on the BL/BL. On odds, dutching the 3-6.

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by Jeebs

#5 Wambri: Line 1 was (-) at wrong distance and Line 2 was (-) at the right distance against a pace faster than today's fulcrum, but didn't make any moves. Has a win against today's fulcrum pace, but that was 271 days ago. No value. No line.

#7 Hebop: Has no standout efforts vs. today's pace. His initial TAM outing was a (-) race which was all over the place. Bennett can be deadly 2nd time over the track, but I'm playing the horse, not the trainer here. No line.

5-1 was a tremendous underlay on a horse spending more time in a stall than on a racetrack.

Bennett pays big balloons on the Place in the 2nd start over the track.

Somewhat puzzled that none of my contenders really did much running.

Onward.

[Bill V.]

cl8 n2-l 79 Fulcrum 90-91

H1 Line 2 excuse line 1 trouble
H2 No line
H3 No line
H4 Line 1
H5 Line 1 (fulcrum horse ) mc winner
H6 No line
H7 Line 1
H8 Line 1 (+)
H9 Unknown Router returning off layoff

[Jeebs]

No time for analysis:

Dutched 4-5-8. Explain later.

[Jeebs]

Ok, so basically, came up with virtually the same horses and lines as you, Bill. However, I dismissed the 1 (an E-style horse) when matching against EPR and I didn't include the 9. The 7 was a horse that could be had, and was obviously at the top of the BL/BL, but the price seemed too short, so I put a dutch on the 3 other contenders hoping to increase the ROI and strike gold. My error.

Sorry, watching my son at home today, so I'm kind of rushing to get my analysis in. Otherwise I would be more detailed.

[Jeebs]

#4 Ridge Kitten (46.0) is the fulcrum POR.

Virtually every horse in this race has a usable paceline. With 4 "E" types here, we can split hairs with EPR:

#1 Pick The Double: 91.5
#2 Spittin' Feathers: 88.0
#4 Ridge Kitten: 96.0
#5 Bruski's Star: 88.5

Based on this, I will toss the #2 and #5 from further consideration. The #1 and #4 run similar EPR patterns and will ultimately be the ones battling for the early supremacy.

Below is my BL/BL output.

[Bill V.]

Sorry Jeebs I had forgotten how hard it is to concentrate
on the race and try to post live

I agee the 4 as a 96 fulcrum The 8 was too short for a underneath bet I had no win bet here

[Jeebs]

A good time to feed the baby ... no play.

[Bill V.]

6.5 RC 88 Ocn1-X

Fulcrum # 4 94.5

[Jeebs]

Really like the #4, 5 and 10 here... putting both in a dutch.