Laurel Park

[Bill V.]

Let me ask you

What is different about 1 turn races and 2 turn races ?

[Segwin]

Hi Bill:

I need some time to think about this. My knee jerk reaction thinks turn time and a horses ability to gain. I would think that 1 turn would favor early? Thinking out loud I think a horse would rather run straight than enter two turns therefore a E would stand a better chance against a EP or late?

Because of real life I haven't much time to spare at the moment but I do not want to let this slip.

[Bill V.]

You have a good basic idea of why 2 turn routes are different than 1 turn

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9406

They don't run 1 turn miles at Parx but I can show you
the difference in the early pace The first fraction and second call
of 7 furlong races ( 1 turn ) and 8 furlongs (2 turns)

The horses on the out side in 2 turn routes have to use more energy
to not be caught wide on the first turn.

At Parx the first turn comes up quick at the mile distance.
LRL is even closer, therefore they reconfigured the track at LRL few years ago.
They extended the chute out longer to make the 1 mile races
more fair for all the horses.

The horses in a 1 turn route have more time to settle into position on a long strait away. When horses go 2 turns they have to run a little different
depending on their post position and the running style of the other horses.

Here are some 7 and 8 furlong averages or "pars
for Parx. 7 furlong races and 2 turn mile races for
each distance, F1, Second Call and Early /Late difference is separated
males and females 3 and up

[Segwin]

Thanks much Bill. Also thanks for the link - somewhere in the cobwebs of my mind I recall that discussion.

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Appy

"In the past I've might have bet without watching the tote (betting in advance) but not anymore."

I learned that one the tough way. Ended up with a bunch of $2-3 horses, when they won.
Then I discovered the conditional bet button where you can enter your acceptable odds. If the odds fall below that your bet is cancelled. Good deal for the guy who is at work all day.

What service do you use Appy?

[Lt1]

Hey Terry Twin Spires has a conditional bet

[Appy]

Originally Posted by Segwin

What service do you use Appy?

Hi Segs, there are a number of good services. I use Xpressbet.

Bill, again I want to say how much I enjoy your stat posts. I can't seem to get enough of that stuff.
This chart confuses me a bit. You show the fractions male and female for 7 and 8, then the E/L differential. It's the differential part I'm not clear on.
This chart shows E for male and female @ 7 and L for male and female @ 8. Is that right? I'm not understanding the benefit of that. Seems to me you want E and L for each sex at both distances. What is it I'm missing here (besides a good cobweb broom)?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Appy

Bill, again I want to say how much I enjoy your stat posts. I can't seem to get enough of that stuff.
This chart confuses me a bit. You show the fractions male and female for 7 and 8, then the E/L differential. It's the differential part I'm not clear on.
This chart shows E for male and female @ 7 and L for male and female @ 8. Is that right? I'm not understanding the benefit of that. Seems to me you want E and L for each sex at both distances. What is it I'm missing here (besides a good cobweb broom)?

Hi Appy

What those numbers in the chart are showing is the "par' Early late difference
readout for winners at 7 furlong and 1 mile routes.

Looking at Horse # 7 here I have highlighted the last line Its a win line at today's distance of 7 furlongs. This is a vital factor in making these PARS
I only use races from the exact same distance .

On 9/27/13 Change Encounter's
EPR was 7.7 less than her LPR
She used her energy more late than early.

Every time a horse wins a race from the same distance and surface as today's race distance,
I record its EPR LPR TPR and the Early Late difference.

What my chart is showing is at 7 furlongs
for females 3 and over when they win 7 furlong races the "par" early late difference is early 4.7 ( I can't figure out how to enter + 4.7 into excel )
so I must have confused the issue by using E 4.7 .

Now because I know that Chance Encounter is more late than average I can make my match up decisions and or discount a horse for being too early or too late

What my chart is showing is that at 1 mile for Females the early late difference has a average Early late difference of -6.6 or Late 6.6

[Appy]

Good. Now I see what you are doing there. Kind of a track bias application without monkeying around with software settings? I've been doing that very thing over the past 2 weeks, and it makes a significant difference. Segs helped me with getting the numbers I was looking for. Thanks Bill. I like seeing how you do things. Every little thing can turn out to be a big help.

As for "I can't figure out how to enter + 4.7 into excel " I can tell you what I do. Just enter the 4.7 as usual for positive, enter -4.7 for negative AND tell it to make all negative entries red.
The color is a big + for me! ( )
That's one detail about RDSS I like. The addition of color makes it much easier for me to focus on a particular entry, or set of entries. A page full of plain old black and white numerology puts me to sleep.

Segs, Laurel is a nice track and a nice area. I seriously considered taking my horses there for an entire meet after making the acquaintance of Mr Boniface who was standing Go For Gin at the time. My mare and that horse nicked for a Triple +++ foal rating. A+++ is the highest rating possible. Very sad to say that loooong trip didn't happen and Go For Gin was soon after retired from stud. The nick with Albert or Nobiz isn't as high.

Sorry for the worthless content. It's just that Laurel always makes me think of that, and what might have been. zzzzzzzzzz

[Bill V.]

Thanks Appy

Ted helped me program this into my spreadsheet awhile ago

Now when I enter the EPR and LPR itautomatically makes the TPR and Early Late difference numbers. I figured out all myself how to have them auto fill Red for Early and Blue for Late