Opening day Aqueduct main track - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

tompkins · 03-30-2006, 05:39 PM

I agree wholeheartedly. I look at the PERFORMER not a PERFORMANCE because STYLES are relative not absolute

tompkins · 03-30-2006, 05:43 PM

in the last race today I will make my wagering decsions on this screen.

RichieP · 03-30-2006, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tompkins

in the last race today I will make my wagering decsions on this screen.

I appreciate that Tim..

2 of the 3 biggest late sticks run 1-2 for the exacta.

9 wins
4 runs second

knock em dead manana!

Richie

tompkins · 03-30-2006, 06:04 PM

it is ALL relative every race, every day. To attribute an outcome to a single line is FRAUGHT with error and it won't stand the test of time

admin · 03-30-2006, 06:18 PM

Winner Race 9 with the 2nd and 3rd line

RichieP · 03-30-2006, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tompkins

it is ALL relative every race, every day. To attribute an outcome to a single line is FRAUGHT with error and it won't stand the test of time

lol. The test of time. How long is "the test of time"??

BTW I bet and lost real money on those 2 counterenergy races I posted up man. Was no day in the park for me today at the Big A and I HAD a clue what was gonna win.

thats ok. A nice plate of cavatelli, some collards, a little meat sauce and a salad and I am ready to work the night cards. Tally ho!

tough game

Richie

shoeless · 03-30-2006, 06:27 PM

I dont see how you can put line 2 in there for that horse,it was in the mud and lost the race by 28 lenghts.To me it looks like you are just causing a problem by putting in horses who make a lot of noise in your readouts.Jeff

RichieP · 03-30-2006, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin

Winner Race 9 with the 2nd and 3rd line

whats wrong with the last line Tim?

WTF am I missing.

SEE thats why u have to do stuff on your OWN. That includes ME posting my model shots AND opinions of what won yesterday and today at the 8f distance. MY BAD.

NO MAS

luv
Richie

admin · 03-30-2006, 06:34 PM

Rich
Please
You know why I posted the screenshot
Its like 5.30 on the east coast
wait for our frends all over see the Pacelines
I bet you will feel better

tompkins · 03-30-2006, 06:35 PM

two words: SAMPLE ERROR.

Imagine that I am scouting a basketball player, and only watch ONE game where, unbeknownst to me, he suffers an ankle sprain the day before. I get a skewed undertstanding of the PLAYER based upon a single PERFORMANCE.

Now if I watched that same player over 3 to 4 contests, sample error would have worked it's way out of the evaluation and I would be seeing the PPERFORMER not the PERFORMANCE.

To understand a horse's abilities today, you should evalute it based upon MULTIPLE examples or, like the basketball player, you are prone to sample error. Also the FORM CYCLE wil tell you which way, if it any, this particular horse is going.

Unless the animal sets every fraction, you need to know how it handled pace pressure. Look at MOST EVERY horse: their style, e/l ranking, total energy wax and wane. To establish a wagering decision on a single line is not logical.

03-30-2006, 05:39 PM	#11
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	I agree wholeheartedly. I look at the PERFORMER not a PERFORMANCE because STYLES are relative not absolute __________________ velocititian

03-30-2006, 05:43 PM	#12
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	in the last race today I will make my wagering decsions on this screen. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

03-30-2006, 06:04 PM	#14
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	it is ALL relative every race, every day. To attribute an outcome to a single line is FRAUGHT with error and it won't stand the test of time __________________ velocititian

03-30-2006, 06:18 PM	#15
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	whats my line ? Winner Race 9 with the 2nd and 3rd line Attached Images

03-30-2006, 06:34 PM	#19
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Whats my line? Rich Please You know why I posted the screenshot Its like 5.30 on the east coast wait for our frends all over see the Pacelines I bet you will feel better Last edited by admin; 03-30-2006 at 06:41 PM.

03-30-2006, 06:27 PM	#17
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,643	I dont see how you can put line 2 in there for that horse,it was in the mud and lost the race by 28 lenghts.To me it looks like you are just causing a problem by putting in horses who make a lot of noise in your readouts.Jeff

03-30-2006, 06:35 PM	#20
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	two words: SAMPLE ERROR. Imagine that I am scouting a basketball player, and only watch ONE game where, unbeknownst to me, he suffers an ankle sprain the day before. I get a skewed undertstanding of the PLAYER based upon a single PERFORMANCE. Now if I watched that same player over 3 to 4 contests, sample error would have worked it's way out of the evaluation and I would be seeing the PPERFORMER not the PERFORMANCE. To understand a horse's abilities today, you should evalute it based upon MULTIPLE examples or, like the basketball player, you are prone to sample error. Also the FORM CYCLE wil tell you which way, if it any, this particular horse is going. Unless the animal sets every fraction, you need to know how it handled pace pressure. Look at MOST EVERY horse: their style, e/l ranking, total energy wax and wane. To establish a wagering decision on a single line is not logical. __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-30-2006 at 06:40 PM.