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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 12-03-2011, 08:28 PM   #11
For The Lead
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
PRX 3rd, review

Ok, this is a NW16MX, the “X” means (in this case) winners of a race for a claiming price of $7,500 or less are not penalized for the win(s), they are still eligible.
There are 7 runners and none of them have a ML=>20/1 and all of them have a race (or more) in the last 90 days, so they are in for further review.
Five of these runners have won their last race. Not surprisingly, those races were all for $7,500.
Three of the horses just beat NW4L.
One beat NW16MX
One beat NW26MX
The three horses that just beat NW4L are the lesser quality of the last race winners.

Here are the lines.

#2 – LAST LINE, it is a win vs. NW16MX just 18 days ago over the same track and surface, I would like to have a line from a 7f or 6.5f race but one is not available
#6 – LAST LINE, this is a winning race over the same track and at the same distance just 11 days ago although it was vs. NW4L
#7 – LAST LINE, this is also a winning race over the same track and at the same distance just 25 days ago vs. NW26MX
#5 – LINE 2, last race was a route race 24 days ago, so the next line is two back at 7f over the same track and at the same distance just 41 days ago, the horse finished 3rd in that race beaten 1.5 lengths and is dropping down in claiming price while staying in the same condition
#3 – LINE 3, last race was a route race 25 days ago, I will give the horse an excuse for line 2 since it was moving up in condition from a win on line 3 vs. NW3L which was also across the same track and surface and at today’s distance just 55 days ago
#4 – LINE 2, last race was a route 11 days ago, line 2 is a win across the same track and at the same distance vs. NW16MX for a claiming price of $7,500 just 39 days ago
#1 – LAST LINE – another horse in the field coming off a winning race albeit vs. NW4L just 32 days ago, the race was across the same track and at the same distance

Before I post the ENERGY screen shots, just one note, every horse in this race is in ENERGY off of a line at either 6.5f or 7f EXCEPT the #2 horse, which is in off of a 5.5f line. For that reason, they will all show better second fraction or hidden energy or turn time (however you want to refer to it) because they ran their second fractions on the straight away rather than on a turn. The #2 is entered off of a 5.5f race which is the only distance that has a “true” turn time. Even if you used a 6f race for the #2 horse, it would still be deficient in the second fraction as compared to the other horses.
My point is, you should not let this second fraction deficiency sway your opinion of the horse.

Here are the ENERGY screen shots. ENERGY suggests "early" so you will be looking at the "EP" column in the rankings on screen 3 and also note the "match up" on screen 2 and also the Early Exdc matchup bars on screen 4.
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