The Importance Of An Automatic Accurate Pace Projection Feature In Your Software

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

One could also make the argument, base on your screen shots, that the horse was "early" and that is the reason it won. It was the best early horse. AND, it ran that way.

This takes nothing away from your concept. Determining whether a race will run early or late is certainly a key to picking the right horse, I'm just not sure this is the correct way to go about it.

Then, of course, there is always the matter of "paceline selection".

A "few" races is never the answer. It takes thousands of races to really get a handle on how something performs and each person would have to do it themselves based on their individual paceline selection method.

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FTL, There is no perfection in race projection. This race actually ran a touch fast and slightly over par. The actual pace of the race was slower then the projection. However, although it appears that it favored early, the early horse was the best sustained horse.

If you split any race into two segments, first and second call and second and third call, it will be apparent which horse or horses favor Early or Sustained (Not Late). Sustained does not mean late.
A slow pace favors early (first 2 fractions) and a fast pace favors sustained (last 2 fractions). Races that run to par or slightly above it, generally favor sustained and visa versa.

Although not perfect, it is predictive in most cases.

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by gl45

The Dream Race suppose to run in 106.7

From the pace lines selected each horse should run the following final times:

Lost= 109.1
Carla= 107.3
Late= 114.2 normalized to108.2
Miss= 108.8
Avary= 109.3

and the winner is Carla with 107.3
and the place horse is Late with 108.2
Two early horses, no need to multiply anything, the TS will give you the winner

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Pino,
You make an excellent point here.
107.3 as displayed by the eventual winner (dream race) at 5.5F to me indicates a slow final time and which in turn relates to a fast pace.
The 3 basic race shapes are as follows:
Slow, fast = early
Fast, slow = sustained
Par = either

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by partsnut

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Pino,
You make an excellent point here.
107.3 as displayed by the eventual winner (dream race) at 5.5F to me indicates a slow final time and which in turn relates to a fast pace.
The 3 basic race shapes are as follows:
Slow, fast = early
Fast, slow = sustained
Par = either

I was looking back at some old threads and this one among many others, got my attention....

Partsnut, so what was your followup to this topic that you had started??

Like Tom alluded to, this was an interesting concept....as with many aspects of what we do, there are many ways to skin a "proverbial cat" and arrive at the same point.....

[partsnut]

lone speed:

I was looking back at some old threads and this one among many others, got my attention....

Partsnut, so what was your followup to this topic that you had started??

Like Tom alluded to, this was an interesting concept....as with many aspects of what we do, there are many ways to skin a "proverbial cat" and arrive at the same point.

Being as I use certain applications that do not apply to RDSS or the Sartin Methodology, what I have to say on this topic, does not serve the interests and purpose of this site. I don't want to ruffle anyone's feathers or upset the applecart..
So as far as I'm concerned, I have nothing more to add on this topic.
I will leave that to the those that are teaching on this site. They seem to know everything. So, keep on teaching.