No confirmed "E" runners plus a "Marathon" race- Friday and Saturday

[RichieP]

The 6th at Penn National Saturday night cont

[RichieP]

6th at Penn Saturday night cont

[Capcondo]

AP #9:

The tandem race looks very fast. The 3 ran the best but has no other race in the form which is even close. 3 is out. My contenders are the 4, 6, and 7.

4: S type with no power move. I think this race will run E/P.
6: E/P handling a 23.1 (tenths). To slow. Out.
7: Consistent sort with lots of 2nd and 3rd position runs. Can handle 22.1 on dirt.

The 7 is my pick but I would pass this race if not in the public forum.

WO #6:

You're right. This is a paceless race.

I'll put the 7 on the lead in 24.8 49.2 1:13.5 1:44.5

2: Coming out of sprints and may get tangled up on the lead. Mostly, the 2 runs from way back. Out.

4: Has been closer in last two sprints. May be a factor but I can't get away from all those late lines last year. Out.

6: S type coming from 5th position against a 24.3. Contender.

7: E and no fight. Out.

8: S type showed a little bit in last. Deeper in PP's shows win from 4th position once and fifth position twice with a power move.

I'm on the 8.

See you tomorrow. Good luck.

Tim

[PeteC]

Friday:

Arlington Race 9 -

Scratch #9 and #11

The 3, 7 and 6 should be on or near the lead today. The 3 sticks out to me as much faster based on fighting at the 1C and then missing by only a neck in the FPLR.

Woodbine:

#7 should be the lead horse, pressed by #2 who goes sprint to route. Matching OTE off a 49.2 113.5 (tenths) pace from #7’s last race, I like #6 off of line 3.

Pete

[tfm]

WO R6:

#6 Village Drive has a HUGE class edge. No world beaters in here and he'll be very tough to beat.

#7 has a huge against the grain run last out. Last against the grain run was 8/2/2010. Doesn't like to win, and is a risky win bet but is a must use in exotics off last.

#4, some decent efforts - especially the against the grain WIN on 10/31/2010.

#8, needs help to win; i.e., multiple moves, where he makes the last one. Not likely to get that today.


Odds will determine how I'll go here but, most likely, will take the 6 (depending on how strongly he's bet) over the others in TRI'S

[mikesal57]

agree with Petey on ARL....3 looks much the best.....taking him with the 5 in ex


sorry...I dont touch Woodbine

[Capcondo]

Marathon at Churchill:

There is so little speed in this race that it's ridiculous. Any horse I pick can't be very far behind. Using the method for calculating the mile time, I come up with:

3: 1:34.4 Sustained
9: 1:34.3 Sustained
10: 1:36.2 E/P

The 3 is going to be in front of the 9. The 3 is my pick.

Penn National:

I am stuck on the tandem with the 1A, 6, and 7 in 22.9 for the first call. It was a very fast track on that day. The one does not measure up and is out. The 6 looks like he might get caught up in the pace. The 7 has run against other fast 1st calls and can close from the 4th position.

I'm on the 7.

Good luck,

Tim

[PeteC]

Churchill Marathon:

Focusing on time and position at the mile mark, here’s what I get….

#3 Line 4 140.8 – 6.4 (tenths) = 134.4 (tenths) 3rd beaten 1 at 8.5 finish (2-2-4-3)
#4 Line 8 134.9 2nd beaten 1 at mile finish (8-7-7-2)
#5 Line 5 140.9 – 6.4 = 134.5 1st by a neck at 8.5 finish (9-9-4-1)

The 3 is faster than the 4 time-wise AND looks to be closer to the pace early. The 5 is very close to the 3 time-wise, but, again, the 3 runs much closer to the pace. The 3 it is.

***Question: For an 8.5 furlong race, you use the “backup time” (Final time – 6.4 seconds) but use the 8.5 finish position and beaten lengths?

Pen:

I’ll use the last race tandem as today’s pace (22.9 46.4 111.1). I see the 1,4 and 5 as e/p types getting cooked tonight.

I get down to the 6 and 7 as final OTE contenders. I’ll take the 6 as my top choice.

Have a good weekend everyone...

[Capcondo]

Here are the charts for the Saturday races. I was at the off-track today and it was an incredible finish after 1.5 miles in the marathon. I thought the 9 was also a contender and he was in the mix as well.





Congratulations Pete on the nice price at Penn National. You were literally a nose away from getting both races.

I haven't been doing anything with long distance races. There was a race at Belmont just before the Churchill race that figured according to the long-distance formula even though it paid just $4.80. I'll pay more attention to these races in the future.

Tim

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by Capcondo

Here are the charts for the Saturday races. I was at the off-track today and it was an incredible finish after 1.5 miles in the marathon. I thought the 9 was also a contender and he was in the mix as well.

Attachment 22391

Attachment 22392

Congratulations Pete on the nice price at Penn National. You were literally a nose away from getting both races.

I haven't been doing anything with long distance races. There was a race at Belmont just before the Churchill race that figured according to the long-distance formula even though it paid just $4.80. I'll pay more attention to these races in the future.

Tim

Thanks a lot Tim! What a race that was at CD! You're right about that 9 horse too, which I missed initially. Looking at line two you get a mid-134 time similar to the other main contenders. I don't spend a lot of time on marathons either but that's why I'm glad Richie is posting these races. Something new to look for.