Philadelphia Park Data for Decision Making

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

In the 6th race the 8 won paying 10.60 the track profile was:


Ernie

Correction: It was the 5th race.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Your right about that, thanks for your comments.

Then I guess you can say I am using the track profile to make a decision.

Ernie

No, I wouldn't say that.
For the benefit of yourself and anyone else reading this, I'll give a try at my best explanation.

A "track profile" comes from the winners line, right from the RESULT CHARTS.
When setting out to create a track profile, ask yourself this question. What do I want or need to know from this information? Different people may come up with different ideas, but I think most will agree that the primary information would be the running position and beaten lengths at the first and second calls.
There is no need for the stretch call or finish, after all doesn't the finish call always reflect that the horse won? (DQ's excepted) You already know that.
Is "total energy" important?
Well, I guess this is an individual call.
Is Median energy and E/L important?
Again, that is an individual call.
Regardless of how each individual constructs their track profile, the base information used is the same for everyone, since they are using the winners line from the result charts.

A "decision model" is exactly what it is called. It is a model, YOUR INDIVIDUAL MODEL, based on the horses and lines you entered into your software for a specific race. When the race is over, you put the winners information, from your software, into your model for future reference. This information will reflect how the winner compared to the other horses in the race based on the lines you chose.
If your model points to "early" runners, then the "early" information, from your software, in the race you are currently handicapping will be the most important.
If your model points to "ote" then those same "early" factors will not be most important.
This is what the decision model is for. It points you towards the horses that YOUR MODEL indicates are winning based on YOUR HANDICAPPING....and no one else's.

Personally, I place the most importance on the "decision model".
I also put more importance on things like "median energy" and "E/L" in the decision model than I do in the track profile.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I can understand the reason you weren't happy with what you were doing. Simply put, it was wrong.

Now that you posted what "Doc" said to do, maybe you could explain it.
In #1, he says to separate total energy by class, with an explanation of possible high total energy classes, but in #3 he says you SHOULD NOT keep this information separated by class.
In #2, he talks about low total energy and that low total energy is usually represented by 3 year old fillies and males. Naturally there is no such thing as a 3 year old "mare", but not matter, again he goes on to say in #3 that "sex" SHOULD NOT be used.

Do you see how this can be confusing?

If you DIDN'T separate by class, how would you know the high total energy races would be Allowance, Stakes and/or Handicaps?

If you DIDN'T separate by sex, how would you know the low total energy races would be from 3 year old females?

Basic Sartin Methodolgy Class is measured by total energy
When Doc refers to class he means total energy

Docs writings are confusing, They always have been. Ever try and follow along reading the yellow manual? talk about confusing

Look I am going to provide the data that I'm keeping for my own
use here. You and everybody is free to take away, add too sort by
age sex name jockeys birthday what ever That is why I present it in a
spreadsheet, Play around with it all you want .tell me I'm full of crap I appreciate that my work is helping me and others

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

A "track profile" comes from the winners line, right from the RESULT CHARTS.

A "decision model" is exactly what it is called. It is a model, YOUR INDIVIDUAL MODEL, based on the horses and lines you entered into your software for a specific race. When the race is over, you put the winners information, from your software, into your model for future reference. This information will reflect how the winner compared to the other horses in the race based on the lines you chose.
If your model points to "early" runners, then the "early" information, from your software, in the race you are currently handicapping will be the most important.
If your model points to "ote" then those same "early" factors will not be most important.
This is what the decision model is for. It points you towards the horses that YOUR MODEL indicates are winning based on YOUR HANDICAPPING....and no one else's.

Ok to be in synch with your comments.

I have created a "Track Profile" from the winners stats..but not from the results
charts. I am not recording times for this track profile. I am recording the winners information from RDSS into the model.
The information is: E/L, F1, SC, E/EP, EPR and TT.

Therefore I now have a decision model based on the winners stats for sprint
distances. My decison model for 9/11 clearly showed that for 3/4 sprint
races the winner was either first or second in E/L , F1, EPR, SC and was either
first or 2nd for 2/4 races for E/EP. My model clearly points to early and to
specific indicators. This is what is winning for my model.

Therefore I can now say that my wagers are based on my decision model.


Ernie

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Ok to be in synch with your comments.

I have created a "Track Profile" from the winners stats..but not from the results
charts. I am not recording times for this track profile. I am recording the winners information from RDSS into the model.
The information is: E/L, F1, SC, E/EP, EPR and TT.

Therefore I now have a decision model based on the winners stats for sprint
distances. My decison model for 9/11 clearly showed that for 3/4 sprint
races the winner was either first or second in E/L , F1, EPR, SC and was either
first or 2nd for 2/4 races for E/EP. My model clearly points to early and to
specific indicators. This is what is winning for my model.

Therefore I can now say that my wagers are based on my decision model.


Ernie

As they should be. Good job.

[Bill V.]

added races for 9/11 First 2 8.5 races on dirt and 1on the turf

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Bill you were headed in the right direction with your profiles..

Yes its a lot of work in the beginning but it will pay off!!!

lets give an example...

Track profile at one mile 10claimers......5-3-2-1 (position only)

horse a- 2-2-1-1 total energy 161 2-1 odds
horse b- 3-2-1-1 total energy 163 3-1 "
horse c- 6-3-1-1 total energy 159 6-1 "

Who would you choose?

I dont know Mike Horse C fits the position and the odds
but how was that 159 total energy earned

was its % med way to low like 65.00% when my profile says winners at 163 total energy need about 67%
with like a 32.00 1st and a 33.00 2nd fraction was it able to close with a 35% 3rd fraction against 163 total energy horses
Id have to see how the program rated them and use all the reaouts not just
Total energy This is what Doc writes about total energy as class

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Basic Sartin Methodolgy Class is measured by total energy
When Doc refers to class he means total energy

Docs writings are confusing, They always have been. Ever try and follow along reading the yellow manual? talk about confusing

Look I am going to provide the data that I'm keeping for my own
use here. You and everybody is free to take away, add too sort by
age sex name jockeys birthday what ever That is why I present it in a
spreadsheet, Play around with it all you want .tell me I'm full of crap I appreciate that my work is helping me and others

There is something you need to know. You, Ted and Richie need to be accurate in your postings more so than anyone else who posts on this site. People who come to this site and read postings, read the postings by the three of you as "the gospel". Many people coming to this site are trying to learn. They don't know a track profile from a decision model, let alone how to construct each of them and what information to put in each of them. What they are looking for and what they need is solid help. Don't show them one thing this week and another thing next week. There is one basic way to construct a track profile. There is one basic way to construct a decision model. Once they are comfortable with the basic way to keep both, THEN they can experiment, although I wouldn't suggest names, colors or jockey's birthdays as part of that experiment.

[Bill V.]

Fair I'm just being honest with myself

I can't speak for anybody I just put the data out there
I did the work its helping me in the format i have been using
since the first day at Del Mar If people would rather see it broken down into
age sex and man made class Then they can see it Im going to gather the info
anyway so whatever.

I have said this from day one here at Pace and Cap and before that on VDC messenger
If you want to win with the Sartin Methodology Read the follow ups and manuals Thats all I have ever been I am crap.I know nothing
Im probably the worst handicapper here but I know what Doc writes works

every thing is based on what I read in the works of Howard Sartin
and Jim Bradshaw and the other contributors of material in these publications
Along with talks with Howard and Jim about the power of vital readouts on some programs and things like Binder improvers which is something Doc writes about in the follow up in the validator series I also tried to
show some examples of not using some programs based on candid comments on the short comings of some of there work they consider failures
I take anything said about peoples own ideas with respect but I see
more errors than success

That said If Ted decides Im full of crap and my work here is not up to the
methodology standards than I beg him to delete all my work
and I will go away I feel I have always worked here in nothing less than
total honesty to work with people to help them win with the Methodology
I have no financial motive to do anything here Never have and the day I can't win races to earn my way Is the day I stop
But at least I will walk away knowing I did something to help some people

[Charlie D]

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3963

Track Profiles and Modeling Misconceptions

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There are some who are under the impression that the Brohammer Model, or Track Profile can be used as a stand-alone handicapping factor.

This becomes apparent when the statement " my track profile is no good or, is not working" signals failure.

The most predictive profiles and/or models are ones in which contain the largest number of horses This includes distance, surface, age, and class.

If you have only a few types of races, there will be wide ranges in the model.
This occurs in races of non-standard distances, and tracks which have short meets with many shippers.

If you want to compile the most productive and predictive type model or
profile, find out which groups or class of horses are in the largest number
at a given track. At most tracks, the largest compliment of horses are in
the sprint category (6fur-6.5 fur). There will usually be a large number of
routes carded. (8 fur-8.5 fur). You need at least 25 races of a certain type
(distance/class) to obtain good results.

If you are modeling % median, and the medians range from 51 % to 53 %,
this tells you nothing. I use modeling to confirm a horse as a contender, and to separate the final contenders.

Most tracks have at least 3 types of predictive race models, some have more.
You can model just about any factor at your track. The best models or
profiles come from races that are balanced with assorted running styles.

The "Matchup" in a given race can cause a bizarre effect or number in the
factors you model or profile. This type of result must be excluded from any
profile or model.

A model of the 2nd call beaten lengths which ranges from 2 to 5 lengths is useless, but one which requires a horse to be within 2 lengths or less, is best.

I create Models and Profiles in the following manner.

Find the groups of horses (distance-class-age-surface) who are the group
largest in number at a track.

Track the factors you select. for at least 25 of the same type race (or close) ie; 25 claiming races, turf races, route races, NG Stakes, etc.

When you have enough race results, check each one for the factors being tracked, and exclude all which appear extremely high or low. Average the
remainder to use as your Model or Profile. Remember, your Profile or Model
is only a reference which relates to the "true" contenders in a race.

My personal favorite Profile or Model is Median Energy % period!
Collecting the appropriate number of races at a track (any track),
I exclude the highest number (and all alike), and the lowest number (all alike).

You should have at least 15 or 20 matches . The range i use is plus or minus . 15 % (point one five) %. Keep in mind, horses are not robots and
the median energy number will seldom be exactly as the profile, but
ocassionally there will be just one who fits the profile.

I use the 2 horses which are closest to my profile. As i stated before,
there will be times where, because of an unbalanced group of running styles,
the MatchUp will determine the Energy expenditure in a given race. I also model the place horse, as i am primarily an exotic wagerer.

Three things that can foul up your profile are: Lone Early, Lone Late, and a
Paceless Race. After I have narrowed the race to the true contenders,
I check my profile to see which 2 have the most desirable energy expenditure.
These may be used as key horses,or key box horses.

Finally, and perhaps the bad news is: Profiles or Models will be predictive
on 3 races within the average 9 race card, sometimes 4 on the week-ends.
The outcome of the remaining races on the card will be determined by the
Match UP.
Hope this info is helpful. It works for me.