Pace How will it effect the fav.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Or just hide the fav
bet the two of your top 4/5 picks to win and win more than $3.40
Gee I think thats what Doc said to do -see seg screen post 1

I've posted this before, but I'll post it again.

As everybody knows, favorites win 33% of all races year in and year out. Add to that the fact that almost 60% of all winners pay 5/2 or less.

This means those playing two horses and throwing out the favorites and/or low odds horses are going to lose 12 bets out of 20, ASSUMING they are good enough to win the other 4 races, which, of course, they won't. There are always those races where you chose wrong from among your contenders or a horse wins that is not among your contenders.

Seems to me that one needs to be considerably more selective in the low odds horses they BET AGAINST!
Seems to me you need to have a very good idea that the low odds horse(s) CAN BET BEAT! Not because you want to beat them, but because they CAN BE BEAT!

"BLINDLY" throwing out low odds horses seems like a recipe for disaster.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Let’s start with the conditions of the race. NW1Y or non winners of a race in the last year. Claiming price $10,000.

The #7 horse just ran 2nd against “OPEN” $10,000 claimers. In other words that field could have had 10 horses in it all with 20 wins in the last year. (not likely, but possible, and is shown as the type of horses it may have been running against in OPEN races) rather than a field like this where you have a bunch of horses that, between them, haven't been able to win a single race in the last year!

Now in case you say “but that was at 1 mile”, then look at the second race back which is at today’s distance and again versus “OPEN” $10,000 claimers and the horse had the lead at the second call (top of the stretch) In fact, the ONLY TIME this horse hasn’t raced against OPEN claimers was 9 races back. Compared to the rest of the field, that pretty much sums up the reasons for this horse being made the favorite.

I assume the reference to jockey and trainer are in reference to the #7 horse.

With regard to the #6 horse, did it occur to you that this is a horse with physical problems? Until it got claimed “470 DAYS AGO” this horse appears to have been doing just fine. Then in the race after the first claim, all of a sudden the horse can’t get past the second call and it has remained that way regardless of claiming price, regardless of condition, regardless of distance. It is no surprise whatsoever that this horse set a fast early pace and faded. That has been the horses “MO” over its’ last 7 races. Going back 351 days for a line in order to get a better speed rating and better total energy isn’t going to help this horse.

Thank You This was really what my post was about ...
Yes the favorite to the crowd was #7 My joy and therfore my mis timed post was to celebrate the beauty of getting these results. I am looking for
a favorite that my software of choice picks 3rd, the match up says bet against, and then by folowing directions from the follow up I get a 5/1 winner
Share Discuss Learn thats was my goal
Thank you for you lesson on horse # 7 Why was it the Fav. I appreciate your work

GS
Bill