Grade 1 Turf at Hollywood - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Charlie D · 05-30-2009, 03:54 PM

Looks like we may have a lone E #8 now. I'll take #8 win and place if double figure odds are about come post time.

Bill Lyster · 05-30-2009, 04:31 PM

This course has been kind to front runners of late. Last Sunday's feature proved that at big odds.

The 8 probably inherits lead, but its best lead can be beaten several times by the 4, the 10 and the 11. The 8 has won from off the lead as well and if she takes that path now, it could be a sprint to the wire. However, the 4 has shown close tracking ability and even took the lead in this race a year ago in a time that the 4 has not competed well against.

Both the 10 and 11 come from well off lead and the 11 was the tandem winner the only time they met. The 11 seems to be a little bit more one dimensional than the 10 who occasionally has moved up in the pack vs running next to last or thereabouts (lines 6-10).

My picks are 4 and 10 with the 11 somewhere in there to help complete the exacta

Bill V. · 05-30-2009, 06:01 PM

Wow look at the adjusted speed ratings for horse # 7
I guess we can expect about an 82-84 from this horse today

Bill

Charlie D · 05-30-2009, 07:30 PM

Think #4 may be unattractive odds for the win bet now #1 is out Bill L and if #8 can do or almost do what #1 did in 7th, i'll be a happy Match Up Apprentice.

Bill Lyster · 05-30-2009, 07:45 PM

I don't disagree re: the 4, but the faster the pace the more positionally the closers out of fast races should move up.

One thing to look at if you have the PP's on you machine is to check that what look like deep closers maintain something near their normal mid pace to slow pace E/L numbers, I didnt down load the race, but if for example a -25 closer in slower races closed in a fast race in say -10 that would not be good for me. I'd want to see something between -15 and -20, relatively speaking, as long as your pace candidate is in the -5 to -10 E/L range, otherwise, the pace may just hold up.

good skill in a few

Bill Lyster · 05-30-2009, 07:48 PM

Hey, with the 4 at 5/2 and the 10 at 8/5, I'm rooting for your 8 at 50/1 or the 11 at 10/1

Charlie D · 05-30-2009, 07:58 PM

#4 looks about right at 5-2 and i think it may go shorter come post time.

#11 looks overpriced Bill in double figs

Charlie D · 05-30-2009, 08:23 PM

that was disappointing from#8

got it's own way, but no response

Bill V. · 05-30-2009, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

4 & 7

mike

Mike you made my day !
Thank you for your loyalty to the match up and Pace and Cap

Your a real winner

Bill

Charlie D · 05-30-2009, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

4 & 7

mike

winner

Nice one Mike

05-30-2009, 04:31 PM	#12
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	Picks after scratches This course has been kind to front runners of late. Last Sunday's feature proved that at big odds. The 8 probably inherits lead, but its best lead can be beaten several times by the 4, the 10 and the 11. The 8 has won from off the lead as well and if she takes that path now, it could be a sprint to the wire. However, the 4 has shown close tracking ability and even took the lead in this race a year ago in a time that the 4 has not competed well against. Both the 10 and 11 come from well off lead and the 11 was the tandem winner the only time they met. The 11 seems to be a little bit more one dimensional than the 10 who occasionally has moved up in the pack vs running next to last or thereabouts (lines 6-10). My picks are 4 and 10 with the 11 somewhere in there to help complete the exacta

05-30-2009, 06:01 PM	#13
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	7 Wow look at the adjusted speed ratings for horse # 7 I guess we can expect about an 82-84 from this horse today Bill Attached Images

05-30-2009, 07:30 PM	#14
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Think #4 may be unattractive odds for the win bet now #1 is out Bill L and if #8 can do or almost do what #1 did in 7th, i'll be a happy Match Up Apprentice. __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

05-30-2009, 07:58 PM	#17
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	#4 looks about right at 5-2 and i think it may go shorter come post time. #11 looks overpriced Bill in double figs __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

05-30-2009, 08:23 PM	#18
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	that was disappointing from#8 got it's own way, but no response __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

05-30-2009, 03:54 PM	#11
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Looks like we may have a lone E #8 now. I'll take #8 win and place if double figure odds are about come post time. __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

05-30-2009, 07:45 PM	#15
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	I don't disagree re: the 4, but the faster the pace the more positionally the closers out of fast races should move up. One thing to look at if you have the PP's on you machine is to check that what look like deep closers maintain something near their normal mid pace to slow pace E/L numbers, I didnt down load the race, but if for example a -25 closer in slower races closed in a fast race in say -10 that would not be good for me. I'd want to see something between -15 and -20, relatively speaking, as long as your pace candidate is in the -5 to -10 E/L range, otherwise, the pace may just hold up. good skill in a few

05-30-2009, 07:48 PM	#16
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	Hey, with the 4 at 5/2 and the 10 at 8/5, I'm rooting for your 8 at 50/1 or the 11 at 10/1

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