Match Up Query

[Charlie D]

I actually thought there was a very good chance of the #6 wiring Voodoo, but thought i'd play safe betting the #8 too.

#1 surprised me in being up so close, but in hindsight, i suppose if there is no #8 to run ahead of him, maybe it's logical for the #1 to be in it's spot.

[VoodooFan]

Last races are killer on both, neither seemed indicative.

Threw out the 8 last race because TODAYS pace would be much slower, based on his 2nd and 3rd back, would make HIM 2nd, and in addition, the horse always seem to fold when he is not 1st or 2nd at the 1st call.

Would compare the 1 last race to the other two, and if no trouble line comment, would say he was declining.

But am not sure if I would throw him (the 1 horse) out if I felt the race was going to run Other-Than-Early, would have to compare him to the other OTE horses in the race.

Not that I would have won it, but this shows why THE HAT does not do "what if" scenarios.

Like he said on tape, someone called him and said, "ok jimmy, I got horse A who runs a 22 - 45- 110 all the way, and I got a 2nd horse who runs a
21.4-44.4 110, who wins the race?"

THE HAT said he told him, " you made up the race, YOU pick it."

Like he said on the Vegas 91 tape that this race will run ONE TIME only and will NEVER be run again. You'll never see it again.

I think I recall where he said he looks at non-contenders to "see" if anyone can "hurt" "HIS" horse.

He looks at the ENTIRE race and the ENTIRE performance of ALL the LINES of ALL the horses that are going to race in that race today.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

If those two lines on the 6 is his last two lines on his PP, that is very frustrating.

He needs a comfort zone, but at a 22.3 , you would have thought he could get it.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

The Minds Eye also says this horse WINS at a 21.4 with a with a 1 length comfort lead.

A 5.5 furlong 1st call to 2nd call may be faster than a 6, thats the portion of the race thats "shorter"....maybe should have added a fifth or two or at least downgraded the 1st fraction , but his "other" PP need to be looked at to verify this kind of call, comparative analysis.

Even still, don't see how anyone could've got close at the 1st call to him, especially at that slow a fraction, 22.3.

Could've been some other non-contender.

Really don't like those "tenths" and all, whats a 22.7 and such?

VoodooFan

[Charlie D]

Froggy

[VoodooFan]

The Minds Eye , at least mine, says that at a 21.4 or slower with a 1 length lead, this horse can go wire-to-wire.

The only question is, who can get closer than 1 length at a 21.4 ?

If no one, we walk to the window to bet the 6.

BUT, this horse HAS TO BREAK 1ST OUT THE GATE...he must go wire-to-wire.

He DID break 1st, he did get his comfort lead, at his comfort fraction.

Charlie, THIS HORSE CANNOT FIGHT!!!!!

And not a PROVEN fighter at that.

So the rest of the question is, who could possibly challenge this horse at any call?

If the I thought the 8 would be 2nd position, which I did not because of the 8, he would DEFINATELY challenge at the 2call for the lead.

Heads up Charlie Dude, have faith in Jim "THE HAT" Bradshaw's MatchUP, still learning , man.

Though that last line of 6, verifying his other wins, I think I still would be betting him to win, one horse bet.....if there is an advanced MatchUp principle we did not see, we are not seeing, IF this was a winnable race.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

The race before running may set up perfectly as we picture it, but the MatchUp principle WILL still apply....like when we predict a 21.4, or when we predict a wire to wire win, some OTHER horse may get the lead, or other horse characters enter the mix, but THE HORSE is still the winner, whether he runs like we predict or not, the principle is constant.

The 8...., he can get the lead at a 22.4, lets say, downgrading his 6.5 f longer 1st call speed.....

The 8 can FIGHT for the lead at a 22. 2-22.3 lets say, downgrading that chute boost a tad...

Based on this, the race will run OTE.

The 6 and the 8 will fight at one or both the first two calls.

The 6 has not proven he can fight, nor that he can keep going after being challenger or that he will not quit after being challenged.

The hard call comes, can the 8 do this at 6 f, or only at longer chutes?

The way the 8 lost badly in the stretch and final of last race, how is one to evaluate that race compared to his other two good races?

The 8 at 6 f normally runs 3rd at the 1st call and finishes badly in the rest of his lines.

Maybe its how bad he lost that last race.....had he been within 2 or 3 lengths of the leader in the stretch before finishing badly, the call is the 8 still has his 2nd back and 3rd back performance and conditioning....last race may have shown those two races were his best ever, compared to his normal other lines.

My Minds Eye also says, that when this horse was closest to winning, he NEEDED TO LEAD.

His ability to PRESS is a fluke today because there is no other lines to verify this as a normal ability or possibly duplicatable.

Minds Eye says he did not really press BUT was fighting FOR the lead, anyhow.

The MatchUp says we do not look or lock on any one line, the TOTAL performance of a horse , now, just to see this BEFORE the race.

Boy, if we could only MatchUp a horse with HIMSELF, more accurately.

THE MATCHUP, JIM "THE HAT" BRADSHAW style, to me, is the BEST factor analysis tool there is.

VoodooFan