can't change

[jms62]

Originally Posted by reckless

Hi jms:

In my opinion... it is a one-horse Derby so far... Quality Road is probably the only horse worth a win wager come Derby Day.

He won two of the most definitive races horses need to win when prepping for the Kentucky Derby--the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. The Derby winners that won or at worse ran very well in these races are mind boggling the past 20-25 years.

Now the same could also be said for the Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, and Blue Grass. These are not just major Derby preps, but they are the only Derby preps to consider, in my opinion.

Throw out the other prep races as if they didn't happen because aside from an aberration here and there, Derby winners don't normally contest and exit these races.

Quality Road not only won these two races, but won them with authority. The quarter-crack issue is the lone caveat and I am personally not going to be influenced by it. If he isn't ready to win on Derby Day, I am confident that the Jerkens' family will not even run in the race; simply put, if he's in the race, then bet him.

The other contenders, both underlays, will be Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy, the 1-2 finishers of the major prep Santa Anita Derby. Pioneer will be second choice and overbet, and Chocolate Candy will be about 20-1... a great play but an underlay at those odds as well. A possible third contender is Dunkirk, but I know he's a big underlay and sucker bet. He is not a threat as I see the race, so far, as he's high on hype and little on accomplishments.

As I said earlier, I agree with Tim that I Want Revenge's races, while visually impressive, just isn't a contender, and he'll get plenty of action as 3rd or 4th choice.

I have a future bet on Quality Road so I like your thoughts. I like the fact that the winner of the last 3 KD's has come through Florida. My opinion may dramatically change once the numbers are crunched through Spec.. The Quarter Crack IMO is what definitely DOES not make this a one horse race. All looks good now but you never know. Dunkirk is appearing to be this years wise guy bet.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by jms62

I have a future bet on Quality Road so I like your thoughts. I like the fact that the winner of the last 3 KD's has come through Florida. My opinion may dramatically change once the numbers are crunched through Spec.. The Quarter Crack IMO is what definitely DOES not make this a one horse race. All looks good now but you never know. Dunkirk is appearing to be this years wise guy bet.

hi again jms:

Good luck on your Future Book bet, jms!!

You mentioned the wise guy bet. I have been hearing that expression since the late 1970s when I worked as a hot-walker for a top trainer and soon afterward, as a publicist for NYRA.

The 'wise-guys' are a pretty stupid lot, and a throwout whenever Miami poster boy Hank Greenberg mentions a wise guy horse on ESPN.

Any Given Saturday, Buoy, Vicar were just a few in the past that I recall---truthfully, they were such stinkeroos that I forgot the majority of them. Wise-guys... what a joke, jms!

Yes, the quarter crack issue is a serious concern, of course, but if anyone in this game can get a horse over that hump while prepping for a big race, it is trainer Jim Jerkens' dad, The Chief, Allen Jerkens.

I truly do believe, based on their long history of thorough horsemanship, is that if Quality Road isn't capable of making a top effort, regardless of being probable post time favorite, the Jerkens will not run the colt.

So, I repeat, if he is in the post parade come the first Saturday in May, he's the bet--at least at this point. But, I doubt if Spec, Val or RDSS or even ol' reliable Phase III will point to any other contender, in my opinion.

Ahhh... the future book bet... I stopped making those bets in the early 1980s when I bet a horse at 25-1 following a sharp second in the Fla Derby only to see that horse run in the Ky Derby a month later at 60-1!!

I can pick 'em, can't I???

Good luck!

[Tim Y]

Musket Man, consistent, but I don't yet know how he compares but could be the War Emblem of the group by way of his different road to the big dance.

100% sound, Quality Road runs away from these so far.

[Tim Y]

here are some to look over, first Afleet Alex: good colt medians too low

[Tim Y]

Smarty and Monarchos respectively

RIGHT IN RANGE

[Tim Y]

Funny Cide and Hard Spun, FIRST in range the other too high and total energy going the wrong way

[Tim Y]

Charismatic IN RANGE

[Tim Y]

War Emblem IN RANGE, matter of fact, MATURING right before OUR eyes

[Tim Y]

Bob n John a throw out as the medians rise

[Tim Y]

The CLASSIC throw out BELLAMY ROAD as this one was above 68