I Am So Frustrated.Can You Guide Me???

[Tim Y]

Having tunnel vision to the last line is NOT a practical way to function and is the domain of the unimaginative. Find a line that is competitive, then search the rest of the HISTORY THAT IS PROVIDED TO YOU (it is given to you for a logical reason as it tells the tale of the horse in performance chapters) to find similar lines.

It is important to see if there is a down turn or up turn in the form cycle by looking at SEVERAL lines coming into today's race. ONE bad race between the last good line is not enough to disqualify it, but TWO begins to make that a strong possibility.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

This is from Paceline Manual

See #5

Hasn't that "last race rule" been replaced by the use of the best of the last three SRs (comparable class/distance/surface rules applied) for later programs?

Not that I necessarily adhere to that one either. I use that as a guideline to finding horses rounding to form. If I find one of the last three to be near the peak, given certain parameters, I'll take the best pace line even if it's ten lines back.

[Charlie D]

Charles

What i posted is not a rule, it is a guideline from the Paceline Manual


I used it to show that class shifts are not irrelevant material in the Sartin methodology, just like your statement "comparable class" shows class shifts are not irrelevant material





Hope that helps

[Jonathan Steele]

"ADW = Advance Deposit Wagering = i.e., betting through an online account "

Thanks David.

Jon

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Charles

What i posted is not a rule, it is a guideline from the Paceline Manual


I used it to show that class shifts are not irrelevant material in the Sartin methodology, just like your statement "comparable class" shows class shifts are not irrelevant material





Hope that helps

Every little bit helps Charlie.

I see each race as being different in terms of the way they must be approached. For example, class shifts. I try to not use maiden pace lines for races with multiple winners.

I also tend to toss out entrants with severe class drops within the claiming ranks, but not before I analyze their potential in today's race. If they look to be unbeatable, I can always pass the race entirely.

I like to think that the method gives me a bunch of tools to use, and sometimes one needs a hammer and chisel and other times a blowtorch will do. A master mechanic (and I don't claim to be one yet in this analogy) knows there is a time and reason for each tool in his tool kit to be used.

And he must be mindful that there may be new tools in the future to consider adding to the collection.

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by clore1030

Every little bit helps Charlie.

I see each race as being different in terms of the way they must be approached. For example, class shifts. I try to not use maiden pace lines for races with multiple winners.

I also tend to toss out entrants with severe class drops within the claiming ranks, but not before I analyze their potential in today's race. If they look to be unbeatable, I can always pass the race entirely.

I like to think that the method gives me a bunch of tools to use, and sometimes one needs a hammer and chisel and other times a blowtorch will do. A master mechanic (and I don't claim to be one yet in this analogy) knows there is a time and reason for each tool in his tool kit to be used.

And he must be mindful that there may be new tools in the future to consider adding to the collection.

Totally agree Charles


Good post

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Totally agree Charles


Good post

Thanks Charlie, much appreciated.
I'm going through one of my frequent bouts of insomnia, I'm surprised that I made any sense.

Don't know what I'm going to do with the Big A closed until December 26. Maybe I'll try Calder if I'm awake later.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by clore1030

Thanks Charlie, much appreciated.
I'm going through one of my frequent bouts of insomnia, I'm surprised that I made any sense.

Don't know what I'm going to do with the Big A closed until December 26. Maybe I'll try Calder if I'm awake later.

I was at Calder this weekend. Saw Nick Zito on Saturday.

My friend is an owner and is at the track almost daily. He knows the ins and outs of Calder.

I'll give you a tip about Calder. Don't play multi-race wagers. They play games there. It's bad enough to lose one questionable race; no sense parlaying it.

And there's no sense going back over a losing race looking for another paceline...if you catch my drift.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

I was at Calder this weekend. Saw Nick Zito on Saturday.

My friend is an owner and is at the track almost daily. He knows the ins and outs of Calder.

I'll give you a tip about Calder. Don't play multi-race wagers. They play games there. It's bad enough to lose one questionable race; no sense parlaying it.

And there's no sense going back over a losing race looking for another paceline...if you catch my drift.

It's been many years since I tried Calder and I never had much success there. I don't play "pick three" (or more) type wages. My preferred style is to just isolate individual races and make what Beyer referred to as "prime" or "action" bets.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by clore1030

It's been many years since I tried Calder and I never had much success there. I don't play "pick three" (or more) type wages. My preferred style is to just isolate individual races and make what Beyer referred to as "prime" or "action" bets.

Well, I play Pick3s all the time, but not at CRC or, God forbid, anywhere in Maryland.

Funny you should mention that about Beyer. I stood behind him once at Saratoga and he must have made about 50 cheap exotic bets for one race. I, along with everyone else behind him, got shut out. I never stood in line with him again.