Brohamer

[shoeless]

Tim,You peaked my interest how did Brohamer get it wrong.

[Tim Y]

Running styles: he bases them on POSITION and starting with ENGEN and the energy programs, they are defined by energy distribution

i.e, War Emblem's Illinois Derby went wire to wire ON THE LEAD in LATE ENERGY distribution, a strong indicator that the Derby would be no distance obstacle. All the positional fellows thought there would be NO shot on the lead...I'm not giving back the almost $50.00 mutuel for figuring out what this colt's energy distribution told me.

On the other side of the coin, off the pace horses, with the WRONG energy distributions (too early or too late) were easy eliminations based on ENERGY DISTRIBUTION: colts like Sweetnorthernsaint, Pyro, and others.


MANY horses, and it is a way of seeing how they are going off form, run EARLY and get beat many many lengths, often behind as much as 6 to 7 lengths behind at each call. POSITION is never as instructive to understanding a race as much as energy distribution. Whenever an animal cannot keep up with a pace that it naturally overcame just a race or two back, it is screaming that it needs a rest. Total energy down and % median up versus the same relative pace three races in a row, NEVER wins and is often off the board at short odds.

Horses like Street Sense and Pico Central showed that same pattern before they failed at short odds...as did Aldebaran (too late) at six furlongs in the Breeder's Cup Sprint.

[shoeless]

His definition of Early is habitually on the lead or within a length of the leader while attempting to to lead.Unless Im reading it wrong it just isnt done by position.

[Charlie D]

on the lead or within a length of the leader while attempting to to lead

That's Brohamers definition of E

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by shoeless

His definition of Early is habitually on the lead or within a length of the leader while attempting to to lead.Unless Im reading it wrong it just isnt done by position.

That isn't POSITIONAL??? Methinks it is. Many many horses run early and NEVER see the front end of the contest. Happens dozens of times each race day.

[Tim Y]

good example today from Woodbine. Horse is early beaten many lengths yet PRESSER when closer to the POSITIONAL lead. Exhausted itself (in vain) trying to keep up with a pace too fast for it.

[Tim Y]

Early when beaten many lengths. Presser on LEAD. It all depends on the PACE of the Race. The SLOWER pace of the presser race allowed this one a breather on the front end all alone.

[Tim Y]

Race styles all over the map (ENERGY WISE) yet positionally very similar. Pace makes the difference. Typical for a baby, as the pace gets faster, the horse gets earlier., but this is a POSITIVE Move since the total energy went up each time as well.

[Charlie D]

Pace makes the difference

Yes it does, this why you should use Position in the analysis like The Hat

The two horse Secure Line has won from the second position in a 21.3, from the fifth position and from the third position.

[Tim Y]

Positional has nothing to do with energy and everything to do with the pace they faced