%Median versus %Early in Follow Up Articles

[CEW]

Tim...........

You are right that the Biasgraph is the same as early/late. But it shows early/late relative to any readout(s) you like, (for me, that is FW, EP, SP), and its a little more dimensional.

Below, I'm attaching a graph from one of my better wins this year. Tampa Bay, Feb. 15, the 4th (6 Furlongs). And they were running fairly early.

Dick...or anyone else...maybe you can coach me if this attachment doesn't come up. I'm weak as hell in that department. Its in Excel. So I don't know if you can automatically open it or not.

Now, here's how you read it: across the bottom is % median. Each horse is plotted in VERTICAL fashion at his % Median point. The top connected line is early (purple), the middle is Factor W (average pace), and the bottom is Sustained (yellow). So the top purple line represents Early for all 5 contenders; the higher the dots, the faster.

The horses were entered from lowest % M (# 6) to highest (# 4). They're reflected that way from left to right. So, for instance, # 6 has his 3 dots up and down nearest the left margin, and his 3 readouts are plotted at his % M of 67.73.

The numerical readouts tell the same story as the graph, but the graph eliminates having to "rank" the contenders. One quick look and you can see 4 and 8 on the lead, with 6 and 7 looking like duds. 1 and 8 look like they have more finish to them, but when you realize what the odds were, you'll agree that 4 is part of the play.

# 4 won at 23-1, #1 was around 2-1, and 8 was around 6/5. I was lucky enough that those 2 favorites finished out of the $, which gave me a trifecta for over $ 1,800.00. I hit an $ 80 horse at CD this year with this graph too, but no trifecta !

Anyway, just like Michael Schertz (the creator of this) says, you have to have good pacelines for it to be realistic. And I guess that's any program we're using, right??


P.S. For turf races winners, the yellow (sustained) connecting line will often cross up over his FW and EP. I've seen quite a few grass races where only 1 or 2 horses will have that yellow line flipped up over their FW and EP. Those are pretty easy winners. Of course they are the top 2 Sus. numerically. But the graph makes them jump out.

Thanks....

Chuck W