Aqu R1 3/30 - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

froggy · 03-30-2007, 10:05 AM

If it's early speed that wins on the inner dirt then #6 Karakorum Sunshine, a need to lead horse has it. An unlikely winner.
If it's from coming from just off the pace then it's #5 Scuttlebutt or #7 Western Sweep.
And if they get too tired then the #3 Return To Tiffany might just run by them.
If the Jockey named Scuttlebutt is riding on the horse called Dominguez then the odds will probably be out of wack in relation to his chances of winning.
As for myself I remember cashing a big ticket at the Meadowlands on a nine year old with 65 lifetime starts in a m/c race with a an elderly apprentice jockey that never had ridden a winner. I was too dumb to know that he had no chance. I just bet what Phase III said was the probable winner.
As you maybe can tell I think that a jockey is little more than dead weight and is no better than his agent who is the one that really decides what horse he will or will not ride.
With this race and so many "if's" I think I will wait and look at the odds and then make my bets.

Froggy

tompkins · 03-30-2007, 12:17 PM

This recent maiden graduate is not Strike the Gold, Aldebaran or Lit de Justice, but RELATIVE to this field, is NOT up on the pace as are the majority of horses winning 6 furlong contests at Aqueduct. I entered the recent competitive lines before and SINCE the layoff, obviously this one has learned to run. Having said that, and the fact that it is the only closer other than the 7, it would have to be 3/1 or better to get a bet there as it against style type, BUT against this field, that Damon Runyon angle is present.

It is intersting to note that the profile at CT for sprints is the mirror opposite to AQU in my limited experience there.

tompkins · 03-30-2007, 12:21 PM

This one is further back. Dominguez will have to have him closer to make the jump. He is a contender, but RELATIVE to this field, he should be far back at the outset unless he reverts to his pre-layoff sytle (which did not work and probably represented his immaturity)

tompkins · 03-30-2007, 12:24 PM

Maidens learn to spead out their speed over a contest by apportioning it. This one shows that maturity relatively.

Will he win? The connections think so. At what price? That is the question mark...

tompkins · 03-30-2007, 01:10 PM

You have to follow the form cycle. These lines are not exclusive to one another, particularly in a baby learning this game. The young ones, in their early starts, usually take a single gulp of air and then run until they stop: when they begin to "get it," they learn to hold back and rate. Just about all babies do this to some degree. Some get it right away, many others take time. 25% rider and 20% trainer doesn't hurt

IMPROVING early speed is the usual. but not only, domain of maiden improvement.

Dumptruk · 03-30-2007, 01:44 PM

Tompkins,

I appreciate your input. But using Energy does not involve comparing multiple pacelines for each runner against each other. You have to select what you think is a paceline that represents each runners ability.

In this particular instance, Scuttlebutt does not project as far back as you seem to think he will. In fact, he's right up there with the leaders. In the Match Up, you have to make judgement calls on which line to use. We'll see in a few I guess. He's 4/1 right now.

froggy · 03-30-2007, 01:47 PM

The frogman just bet 60% on #5 Scuttlebutt and 40% on #1 Brown Butter
I always say put your money where your mouth is.

Froggy

tompkins · 03-30-2007, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dumptruk

I appreciate your input. But using Energy does not involve comparing multiple pacelines for each runner against each other. You have to select what you think is a paceline that represents each runners ability.

Then you are INVITING sample error.

Look at the pace of the race and where this one ranks. NOT UP FRONT as he is now below 7/2 here. The rail horse is a good choice at 5/1..

froggy · 03-30-2007, 01:52 PM

Holy cow did I bet that much I knocked them both down a point.

Froggy

tompkins · 03-30-2007, 02:08 PM

Damon Runyon scores again as the ONLY two in the tie for velocities with any deceleration at all run 1-2. Glad someone cashed. I passed.

03-30-2007, 12:17 PM	#12
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	it's all relative This recent maiden graduate is not Strike the Gold, Aldebaran or Lit de Justice, but RELATIVE to this field, is NOT up on the pace as are the majority of horses winning 6 furlong contests at Aqueduct. I entered the recent competitive lines before and SINCE the layoff, obviously this one has learned to run. Having said that, and the fact that it is the only closer other than the 7, it would have to be 3/1 or better to get a bet there as it against style type, BUT against this field, that Damon Runyon angle is present. It is intersting to note that the profile at CT for sprints is the mirror opposite to AQU in my limited experience there. Attached Images __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-30-2007 at 12:32 PM.

03-30-2007, 12:21 PM	#13
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	versus the field This one is further back. Dominguez will have to have him closer to make the jump. He is a contender, but RELATIVE to this field, he should be far back at the outset unless he reverts to his pre-layoff sytle (which did not work and probably represented his immaturity) Attached Images __________________ velocititian

03-30-2007, 12:24 PM	#14
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	babies Maidens learn to spead out their speed over a contest by apportioning it. This one shows that maturity relatively. Will he win? The connections think so. At what price? That is the question mark... Attached Images __________________ velocititian

03-30-2007, 01:10 PM	#15
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	You have to follow the form cycle. These lines are not exclusive to one another, particularly in a baby learning this game. The young ones, in their early starts, usually take a single gulp of air and then run until they stop: when they begin to "get it," they learn to hold back and rate. Just about all babies do this to some degree. Some get it right away, many others take time. 25% rider and 20% trainer doesn't hurt IMPROVING early speed is the usual. but not only, domain of maiden improvement. __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-30-2007 at 01:25 PM.

03-30-2007, 02:08 PM	#20
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	Damon Runyon scores again as the ONLY two in the tie for velocities with any deceleration at all run 1-2. Glad someone cashed. I passed. __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-30-2007 at 02:11 PM.

03-30-2007, 10:05 AM	#11
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	If it's early speed that wins on the inner dirt then #6 Karakorum Sunshine, a need to lead horse has it. An unlikely winner. If it's from coming from just off the pace then it's #5 Scuttlebutt or #7 Western Sweep. And if they get too tired then the #3 Return To Tiffany might just run by them. If the Jockey named Scuttlebutt is riding on the horse called Dominguez then the odds will probably be out of wack in relation to his chances of winning. As for myself I remember cashing a big ticket at the Meadowlands on a nine year old with 65 lifetime starts in a m/c race with a an elderly apprentice jockey that never had ridden a winner. I was too dumb to know that he had no chance. I just bet what Phase III said was the probable winner. As you maybe can tell I think that a jockey is little more than dead weight and is no better than his agent who is the one that really decides what horse he will or will not ride. With this race and so many "if's" I think I will wait and look at the odds and then make my bets. Froggy

03-30-2007, 01:44 PM	#16
Dumptruk Grade 2 Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Northern California Posts: 75	Tompkins, I appreciate your input. But using Energy does not involve comparing multiple pacelines for each runner against each other. You have to select what you think is a paceline that represents each runners ability. In this particular instance, Scuttlebutt does not project as far back as you seem to think he will. In fact, he's right up there with the leaders. In the Match Up, you have to make judgement calls on which line to use. We'll see in a few I guess. He's 4/1 right now.

03-30-2007, 01:47 PM	#17
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	The frogman just bet 60% on #5 Scuttlebutt and 40% on #1 Brown Butter I always say put your money where your mouth is. Froggy

03-30-2007, 01:52 PM	#19
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Holy cow did I bet that much I knocked them both down a point. Froggy