Today's picks, Derby Day.

[Ted Craven]

Have to pick a thread to post non-Derby selections in today, so Mitch - hope you don't mind

Race 10 - Contenders: 2-7-6-1-11

Win 2-7
Exacta 2 / 7-6-1-11 and 7-6-1-11 / 2

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Have to pick a thread to post non-Derby selections in today, so Mitch - hope you don't mind

Race 10 - Contenders: 2-7-6-1-11

Win 2-7
Exacta 2 / 7-6-1-11 and 7-6-1-11 / 2

Result: 8-5-9-7
Lost!

As with all foreign horses - we have very few metrics to go by in RDSS. One we always (should) check is the TrackMaster/Timeform International rating in the TrackMaster Speed Rating column. Does a foreign horse have a final time speed rating in a good race competitive with the other horses. In this case, for #8 T O Elvis from Japan, the answer is yes, thus we should look at it. Was Co-2nd favourite at 5-1 with other known-form contenders. For me, not enough price to compensate for unknown closing ability and late energy distribution in a Late Pace Biasing race with lots of apparent early speed. So - I excluded it. The rest of my betting strategy was thus irrelevant (but FWIW, it centred around the #2 Key horse)



We should be sure to ask the same question about the 3 foreign horses in the Derby.

[Ted Craven]

Race 11

Contenders: 6-4-9-7-1

Any of IMO, any of 6-4-9 could win, in that order.

If odds hold -

Win 6-4
Exacta 6 / 4-9-7 and 4-9-7 / 6


IMO, #10 foreign horse shows nothing special on SR in good races.

[atlasaxis]

Ted, appreciate you posting both the wager and the follow-up.

This is exactly what I was trying to understand. You showed the contenders, the wager before the race, and then explained the decision afterward, including what you missed and why.

That’s the part that really helps. Not just what won, but how the decision was made and where it could have been different.

Also interesting that your top four matched my top four on the Taulbot software. Again shows the contenders are often there, it’s how we interpret them and construct the wager that makes the difference.

And yes, I understand the issue with foreign horses as my software doesn’t recognize them either, which makes that piece even more important to account for.

Good breakdown, thanks for sharing it.

Tom

[dadams6357]

Tom
Usually I find is that what it comes down to. This is what it gets down to 4 or less. Now Tim does not settle for that He has numerous extras to whittle the selections down to 1 or 2.
If you end up with 4 selections. What do you go with. Best policy is to watch the odds boards and try to figure out which one of the 4 is paying the best. The whole process is not necessarily picking the winner. But picking those that have the best chance of winning.
The ability to pass races is a great way to keep your money.
I understand what your saying...the way things are laid out it is hard to find all the information that you need. Now I am not critizing Ted. The whole Rdss was built from the bottom up....new things come along new stuff added. Same way the human brain evolved...Base of brain then everythig else came along as we evolved so our brains are not all that organized. So feel comfort in the fact that Rdss was built like god built the brains we have.
Good luck
I understand your pain.
Don

[MJS6916]

That’s a good reminder Ted put up
in post# 12 in this thread.
I think he put up something similar
on a Breeders Cup weekend
somewhere in the last 10 years.

Makes me wish I was watching today.
The winner was 11-1 not too far before
post time and took less money
in the place and show pools than
all the other runners less than
double digit odds except for the
post time favorite.

Mike 🙂

[Mitch44]

No problem Ted.
To design a bet for a race one must put the race in context. We get blinded by contenders and forget about the race as a whole. How tough is this race? How many unknown factors?
Is the best horse legit or a false favorite? Avoid small paying EX & DD. learn how to judge form, separators etc. Is this horse improving or declining.

For the Derby this is how I bet it. I made bigger bets on later races , money
management is very important.

COMPLETED:9d60f-f1355 CD#11 $6 Double 4, 6, 7, WT, 4, 11, 15, 16, 19 none $90.00 $568.98+ $478.98

COMPLETED:5d0a1-8916a CD #12 $4 Double 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 19, WT, 3, 8, 10, 11 none $96.00 $286.44 + $190.4
Players on here will tell you my favorite id the DD. It easier to pick winners then place horses etc. & anything can get up for show.
I normally key a horse in my DD a & only go w/ 3 contenders. But the difficulty of the Derby I used more & what I thought were all legit contenders.
I still alive for a P3 w/ race 14

Mitch44 AKA "The Monkey"

[Lt1]

Well done Mitch. Nice to see the Monkey hasn't lost a step.
Tim

[Mr.Pagine]

Incredible Job Mitch.

I was all over the 1 in the Derby.

In the words of Maxwell Smart; "Missed it by that much"

Jon

[atlasaxis]

Not trying to stir anything up, but I think this is worth saying.

I get your point Mike, especially on a race like the Kentucky Derby with pools that size. And I’m not saying anyone has to post exact tickets beforehand if they don’t want to.

But there’s a difference between protecting your plays and coming back after the race pointing to a list and calling it a hit.

Nobody is moving a Derby pool with a small ticket anyway, so that part doesn’t really hold much weight. The bigger issue is clarity.

If someone shares their actual approach, key horses, how they’re structuring bets, when they’re betting based on price, that’s useful.

Just listing a bunch of horses and then sorting it out after the fact doesn’t really tell us anything.

If we’re going to learn from each other, the standard should be simple:

Be clear on what you’re actually betting
Or show the ticket before the race

Otherwise it just turns into opinions that can always be reshaped after the result.

Not a knock on anyone, just think it would make the conversation a lot more real and a lot more useful.