Saratoga 9 today. July 25, 2024

[kahunab]

Good Evening! I am working on new skills to post analysis of races. So let's see if I learned from Ted's tutelage last week. Let's take a look at SAR9 from today, Thursday, July 25, 2024.
First, we look at the Entries screen and we note that the 3,4,8 provide the early pressure with 20 QSP. We begin to think "other than Early" race. We also note that the Foreign horse the 11 has no PL or BPP which I have found to be a strong indicator for foreign horses. I move him to a secondary contender but may consider him for a companion horse.



Now we look at the RX screen. We immediately make our top 5 BL/BL horse contenders for the Key designation. All others become secondary contenders. Then we see that the 9,1,8 meet all the limits in the L/P approach. The 9 is missing the PL score and a NP score, and his BPP score is 5. Not in the top 3. He is the number one RX score and the number 1 L/P score. The 8 is number 3 PL and number 1 BPP, he is number 2 RX and number 2 L/P. He is also #1 late in LPR in a late race. The 1 horse has no PL, no BPP, Shaky RX and is 5 late. I think all this is telling us that we should eliminate the 1 for consideration as our Key horse.


We now look at the New Pace screen to see how the 9 and the 8 compare. The 9 has a better range than the 8 but they are not too far apart. Lows of 87 to 89. 9 has a better CSR of 199.99 to 192.83. So the 9 appears a bit better on this screen.



On the segments screen we see the 9 looking good if the race runs early or neutral. But we are expecting an other than Early race, ie Late. Look at the 9 and the 8 on the TS+F3 panel. they look again close but the 8 appears better if the race runs late.


One of the screens I have been watching anecdotally is the Position Analysis screen. This screen is supposed to tell us the average positionality the horse assumes in it past performances. What I read this to say is that the 8 averags 2.4 lengths off at the 2nd call and the 9 averages 4.9 and gains enough to be 2.0 off. The 8 is 2.4 off at the 2nd call and gets up to 1.8. I have no data to support that decision but am only watching to see who tends to be closer at the 2nd call in place to make a move.



I chose to bet the 8 because he would be closer up front, met all of our L/P standards, had better PL, BPP numbers, his Segments screen showed better late in the TS +F3 panel. I bet him to win and place.