BVD rating

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. I took it to mean that any layoff horse more then 42 days and any FTS. If the other horses have run with 42 days I just capped them as usual. I'm looking at it as a possible spot play or another plus factor for 1 of my top 5. Let's see what Bill V has to say since it's his baby.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Also, it looks like the % does not register unless 5 works at the distance were run on a given day.

6 f works are fairly rare and if a horse has the best 6f work out of three it should get 100% (or maybe even 67% as its better than 2/3rds of the horses working out at this distance - not sure about this aspect of the data), but instead gets no % score???

[Bill V.]

"you can see all the stars as you walk down Hollywood Blvd."

https://youtu.be/yp_QkUVZGPc


Hi Tim and Bill

Bill Time has it, The BVD is only a way for me to rate an unknown

I only rate the FTS and layoff horses off over 42 days

I went through every horse in this demo just to give you an idea

Horse 1 Poised for Action He has been off 41 days He only has 1 workout with no BVD %
he does show a 2nd place finish against 5.0 Turf horses but that layoff was only 30 days
In two other instances of layoff of over 42 day he has done nothing

Horse 2 Devine Dental He has been off 53 days
He gets a BVD rating of 86 He runs pretty well
After breaks of 30-35 days His only other
layoff longer than 42 days was an 83-day layoff
He returned and won going 1 mile

Horse 3 Koan He is been off for 129 days
His BVD rating is 102 He won his maiden race
After a 33 day layoff but did nothing after a 208 layoff He was only 2 at the time

Horse 4 True Boldness Has been running consistantly His last race was 16 days ago
So his paceline is all he needs

Horse 5 Thefundarelow His last race was 16 days ago.
So his paceline is all he needs

Horse 6 His Reins Of Fire He has been off 32 days He has a nice 123 BVD with 2 works

Horse 7 Wild Willy Dean His last race was
16 days ago So his paceline is all he needs

[Bill V.]

The 4, with two lines better than the field on RX3 blows them away at 3/1










no peanuts

[Bill Lyster]

Many Thanks,

[Bill V.]

Hey Bill, I never thought about ,what happens with 3 works in 21 days . Yes I think it's only fair to take the best two of the three

[Bill Lyster]

Anyone know the criteria for when a % is shown or not? See attached.



In the first work the horse was 5th out of 29, so he was better than 24/29 of all who worked that distance or 83%

But why no DMR % - 104/110 = 94.6% and best of 18 would either be 100% or 17/18 = 94.4%.

Data recording and reliance on the info causes some belief problems, don't you think.

This race is a year old, but was the first one I Pulled up at random.


I think I stumbled into the answer. The program does not convert % beyond 30 days from today's race!

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. I just went thru todays' card at Parx and it appears that you are correct about the 30 day cutoff to get a % rating.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Hi guys

Thanks for the deeper looking at the %BVD numbers

In testing, When I've had this situation, I have been doubling the shown % number and taking 10 points away from the total, as a penalty

So for race 8 today at Parx the winner Iggy Logo has two works in 21 days following a 40-day layoff
I have been rating horses like this as 78 + 78 -10 = 146 BVD
Now that I see that on days with less than 5 workouts there is no % number
So If a horse works on a day were not too many other horses work There should be no penalty right?

Thanks

Iggy won, He does pretty well after 30-40 day layoffs

[Lt1]

Iggy whistled all the way to easy win.
Tim