My best longshot to date

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

Ted

Both the 4 and 8 figured as contenders based on their BL/BL, but I eliminated both of them because of their E/L being too early. With them both being plus E/L, I didn't think either had a chance. With a lone early speed, even on turf, they have a chance, but with multiple horses too early, I eliminated them. Leaving the ones you see above, that are all negative on E/L. The 9 looks really sketchy based on his last couple races, but when you go back and look at his 3 7f turf races, he did well in all of them, and since today was a 7f turf, I used one of those older lines. Hope this explains my "logic", anytime you hit a 74-1 horse, there is obviously some luck involved... but thanks to the software and to Mark's pointers, I went back a little bit on the 9, looked at his body of work, and included him.

Dan

Thanks Dan for that elaboration - all makes sense. And thanks Mark for the (recurring) discussion about the layoff, return to work cycle of horses, and trainer intentions. 74-1 buys you a LOT of latitude for giving horses in such scenarios a shot!

Ted

[ClockerDan]

At a boy Dan. You earn it. Good job. Saratoga is coming up you going ?

[DanBoals]

Saratoga? I wish!

Maybe someday when I am consistently hitting winners and on the NHC tour, but for now, I can't really afford it, I live out on the other coast, up by Tahoe.

[atkinsrr]

Dan...great logic on that pace line selection....sometimes we have to do something out of the ordinary in the pace line selection department.....way to go

[Tim Y]

All of my $100+ winners came on maidens or turfers. MOST often they were arrived at by going several lines back and comparing LIKE paces of races.....

Oddly enough if you looked at the recent Queen`s Plate (often do retrospective analyses for fun) the top first fraction lines ran 1 2 3 with the 5th one running 4th. IN Mike Fox`s Plate the top three 2nd call colts ran 1 2 3.

LONG race, but it is the earlier aspects of the paces of race that get the bigger prices often.