Kentucky Derby / Energy!

[Houndog]

First I ran the horses through PHASE1 to get a feel for the relative abilities of the horses. Rounded off for TPR

Brother Derek 87/95 183
Lawyer Ron 91/79 170
Barbaro 86/91 177
Bob and John 90/79 169
Sinister Minister 95/85 180
A.P. Warrior 86/92 178
Sweetnorthernsaint 80/98 178
Sharp Humor 87/90 177
Steppenwolfer 85/82 167
Point Determined 84/96 179

I used TPR as prescribed in the Sartin, Schmidt, Hambleton book adjusting up or down from an average variant of 17 dividing by 2 than putting .60 adjustment for EPR and .40 adjustment for LPR. Initially I entered these horses in the Energy Generator and scratched by TOTAL ENERGY and also considered the TPR ratings above. I did not project and used all 9 furlong lines for my eventual contenders.

[Houndog]

I did look at the horses using the alternate and manual adjustment. I decided to stay with the automatic adjustment here. Also I did a visual ESP for the horses in the race.

[Houndog]

ENergy Screens Automatically Adjusted

[Houndog]

Looks like the race VARIEGATE's early. Even though Sinister Minister has a 0.000 Emuv his F2 is deficient and he is also highest in UXR. I am pretty sure their will be plenty of pace up front with Barbaro, and Sharp Humor in the race.

[Houndog]

The sort screen. The paragon A horses are Sinister Minister and Brother Derek. Paragon A is your early horses. The Paragon B horses are Brother Derek and Point Determined. These are your more sustained horses. The one thing I look for here is the 0.00 Muv horse that is deficient in the other rankings. Sinister Minister although 1 in EP is 3-5-5-5-4 in the other rankings.
Sinister Minister is only 4th ranked in FX. This indicates to me that the change variegate is in order.

[Houndog]

I am going to DELETE the Muv for Sinister Minister.

[Houndog]

The Variegate is now sustained.

[Houndog]

Brother Derek joins Sinister Minister as the 0.00 Muv horse. He is number 2 paragon A number 1 pargon B. His overall rankings are superior to Sinister Minister.

[Houndog]

The EXDC MATCH-Up. I will be looking at the Late Exdc Match-Up for my win contenders. Sinister Minister which has 0.00 deficiencies in both the first and second columns would be my counter energy horse. He is also the Energizer. My win contenders would be Brother Derek and/or Sweetnorthernsaint/Point Determined. If I believe the pace falls apart up front I would consider using Brother Derek, Sweetnorhernssaint, Point Given and although I eventually scratched him A.P. Warrior in a 4 horse trifecta box. The reason I am saying this is that A.P. Warrior came up as the DPH in Thoromation.

[Houndog]

I ran the same horses through THOROMATION, but kept A.P. Warrior in for 6 horses. THOROMATION is pretty much ENERGY! with additional graphics. The numerical readouts are the same in many of the readouts. Anyhow in THOROMATION and the Pre-Play Screens the order of finish is.
THOROMATION: Brother Derek, A.P. Warrior, and Sinister Minister.
EXDC Pre-Play: Sinister Minister, Brother Derek, and Barbaro.
Sp Pre-Play: Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, and Brother Derek.
The DPH (Designated place horse or designated in-the-money horse that Doc Sartin later described it) is A.P. Warrior.

I know the horses run the race, but I thought it interesting that Bob Baffert essentially said that Sinister Minister cannot be rated, and Dale Romans said that Sharp Humor is going out wingin'.