Gulfstream Park, St. Patrick's Day - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

The Pook · 03-16-2015, 04:45 PM

Race 8 is a pass.

The Pook · 03-16-2015, 05:00 PM

Race 9 is a pass.

The Pook · 03-16-2015, 05:00 PM

Race 10 is a pass.

The Pook · 03-16-2015, 05:06 PM

I couldn't find too much on this card. Maybe others can find more. Back to Parx.

Pook

Seven Furlongs · 03-17-2015, 06:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pook

Race 1 will be a pass for me. Can't grab a hold of that one.

I felt the same so i did the same. Not a race for me.

Seven Furlongs · 03-17-2015, 06:51 AM

2nd race, 6f on the dirt for low level claimers.

This is not a heavy pressure race as I have the pack distribution as follows:

E #3

EP #2, #7

P #1, #4

C #5, #6

I'm more inclined to think an E or EP horse will take it, so one of the 2, 3 or 7. Of those 3, the 2 and the 3 are the more interesting horses.

For the 2, it is first off of a long layoff, a warning sign in general but even more so at this class level. It has only run 4 furlongs in the last month and coming off of a layoff, you'd like to see a little more activity. Additionally, it is a 4 year old going up against older horses, so a slight negative.

For the 3, it actually looks decent. Its form is okay, has shown 12f of activity in the last month and is getting blinkers for the first time. Throw in that she is a front runner and that should be a plus.

The 5 is also a nice horse, but, its best races at Monmouth have been run with decelerating fractions, so a negative turn time. Plus, couple that it has to win off the pace in a soft paced race, it may just be vulnerable.

So, the 3 might be worth a look.

Seven Furlongs · 03-17-2015, 07:00 AM

3rd race, 6 furlongs on the dirt for n3l candidates.

Again, another race with a softer pace as only three horses are E or EP type runners, the 7, an E, and the 1 and 6, both EPs.

Of those 3, only the 7 grabs my interest, but, its form is questionable.

Of the off the pace types that might do something, I like the 4. Granted you have to go way back to its calder/gulfstream park west lines to get some good paleness, but, this horse is doing the following:

-is dropping in class
-is going from a turf sprint to a dirt sprint.

I have no idea why this horse has been running on the turf. Is it because turf purses are higher? Is it greed? Who knows, but regardless of that, this horse looks to better on the dirt than the grass. Throw in that the horse went 5 wide on the turn in its last race, the horse has more than enough positives to show that it will fire.

Since it isn't the ML favourite, the 4 might be worth a look.

Seven Furlongs · 03-17-2015, 07:07 AM

5th, 7.5 furlong turf optional claimer.

There might be some value in this race.

The Morning Line favourite the #5 has good closing ability and is a very good horse, but the 6, and 9 horses rank comparably in terms of speed figures, and those 2 horses are placed at 20 to 1 and 12 to 1. The 6 has the better closing ability than the 9, so maybe lean towards that horse?

I'm undecided about this race, but I might consider the 6 or the 9.

Seven Furlongs · 03-17-2015, 07:16 AM

7th race, 1 1/16t optional claimer.

Not a lot of early speed in this race, as I have just the 5, and 6 as horses that like run up front. Every one else either presses or closes.

I think the odds makers got this race pretty right. I have the 2, 6, and 8 as the best horses and those are, I think, the 3 horses with the lowest ML odds.

Of the early horses, I think 6 is best. Of the late horses the 2 is best. The 2 horse is a presser and has run well against faster pace lines. Plus, it has a better late fraction, but then again, most early horses have poorer late fractions so that may not be saying much.

At the slightly higher odds the 2 is better value, but, it is no sure thing. Then again, neither is the 6.

Seven Furlongs · 03-17-2015, 07:28 AM

9th race, 1 1/16 on turf.

One problem with this race is that it is for 3 year olds, so still developing horses.

Not a lot of early pace here, so the pace won't benefit a closer.

The 2 horse is an EP horse and ran a very good race off its last pace line. It has just been claimed and Bobby Dibona is 16% 1st off the claim.

The 2 horse looks like it could and should wire. My only concern with the horse is that it last ran 12 days ago and has strung together 3 strong races.

As for alternatives to the 2, the 7 or the 10, both moving up in class from the maiden claiming ranks, might be worth a look.

Not really that crazy about this race.

03-17-2015, 07:28 AM	#20
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	9th race, 1 1/16 on turf. One problem with this race is that it is for 3 year olds, so still developing horses. Not a lot of early pace here, so the pace won't benefit a closer. The 2 horse is an EP horse and ran a very good race off its last pace line. It has just been claimed and Bobby Dibona is 16% 1st off the claim. The 2 horse looks like it could and should wire. My only concern with the horse is that it last ran 12 days ago and has strung together 3 strong races. As for alternatives to the 2, the 7 or the 10, both moving up in class from the maiden claiming ranks, might be worth a look. Not really that crazy about this race. Last edited by Seven Furlongs; 03-17-2015 at 07:33 AM.

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03-16-2015, 04:45 PM	#11
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	Race 8 is a pass.

03-16-2015, 05:00 PM	#12
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	Race 9 is a pass.

03-16-2015, 05:06 PM	#14
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	I couldn't find too much on this card. Maybe others can find more. Back to Parx. Pook

03-17-2015, 06:51 AM	#16
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	2nd race, 6f on the dirt for low level claimers. This is not a heavy pressure race as I have the pack distribution as follows: E #3 EP #2, #7 P #1, #4 C #5, #6 I'm more inclined to think an E or EP horse will take it, so one of the 2, 3 or 7. Of those 3, the 2 and the 3 are the more interesting horses. For the 2, it is first off of a long layoff, a warning sign in general but even more so at this class level. It has only run 4 furlongs in the last month and coming off of a layoff, you'd like to see a little more activity. Additionally, it is a 4 year old going up against older horses, so a slight negative. For the 3, it actually looks decent. Its form is okay, has shown 12f of activity in the last month and is getting blinkers for the first time. Throw in that she is a front runner and that should be a plus. The 5 is also a nice horse, but, its best races at Monmouth have been run with decelerating fractions, so a negative turn time. Plus, couple that it has to win off the pace in a soft paced race, it may just be vulnerable. So, the 3 might be worth a look.

03-17-2015, 07:00 AM	#17
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	3rd race, 6 furlongs on the dirt for n3l candidates. Again, another race with a softer pace as only three horses are E or EP type runners, the 7, an E, and the 1 and 6, both EPs. Of those 3, only the 7 grabs my interest, but, its form is questionable. Of the off the pace types that might do something, I like the 4. Granted you have to go way back to its calder/gulfstream park west lines to get some good paleness, but, this horse is doing the following: -is dropping in class -is going from a turf sprint to a dirt sprint. I have no idea why this horse has been running on the turf. Is it because turf purses are higher? Is it greed? Who knows, but regardless of that, this horse looks to better on the dirt than the grass. Throw in that the horse went 5 wide on the turn in its last race, the horse has more than enough positives to show that it will fire. Since it isn't the ML favourite, the 4 might be worth a look.

03-17-2015, 07:07 AM	#18
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	5th, 7.5 furlong turf optional claimer. There might be some value in this race. The Morning Line favourite the #5 has good closing ability and is a very good horse, but the 6, and 9 horses rank comparably in terms of speed figures, and those 2 horses are placed at 20 to 1 and 12 to 1. The 6 has the better closing ability than the 9, so maybe lean towards that horse? I'm undecided about this race, but I might consider the 6 or the 9.

03-17-2015, 07:16 AM	#19
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	7th race, 1 1/16t optional claimer. Not a lot of early speed in this race, as I have just the 5, and 6 as horses that like run up front. Every one else either presses or closes. I think the odds makers got this race pretty right. I have the 2, 6, and 8 as the best horses and those are, I think, the 3 horses with the lowest ML odds. Of the early horses, I think 6 is best. Of the late horses the 2 is best. The 2 horse is a presser and has run well against faster pace lines. Plus, it has a better late fraction, but then again, most early horses have poorer late fractions so that may not be saying much. At the slightly higher odds the 2 is better value, but, it is no sure thing. Then again, neither is the 6.