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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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05-26-2019, 06:03 PM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Too Simplistic
Thanks Mitch
But don't short change me I have the pick 4 and pick 5 Mitch and all Never be put off by " too simplistic " those very words are the major reason I began to use TPR and ALL factors of PMTR I am a limited educated ex truck driver The simplistic approach to paceline selection and TOR is what made me a consistent winner I marvil at folks much smarter than me like yourself but I will never go past the Simplistic Teachings of PMTR and the paceline manual The Pick 4 and pick 5 comes in for me ! The fulcrum # 2 did set the pace and placed ( what often happens) for a solid excata r Last edited by Bill V.; 05-26-2019 at 06:10 PM. Reason: ran out of juice on the tablet |
05-26-2019, 10:35 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
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I guess all this analysis is okay, and could be satisfying, but in later Follow UPs, Doc said it was unnecessary, and to use BL/BL and the VDC. So that's what I'm doing. It's working well for me for the short time I've used RDSS.
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05-26-2019, 10:37 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
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BTW, Bill, congratulations on you pick 4 and 5.
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05-27-2019, 10:33 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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Lefty the fulcrum could never challenge the power of BLBL or V/DC. When money is on the line go with the best, of course picking correct contenders and lines are a prerequisite.
The Fulcrum was and still is a Pizzola creation which never made it into any Sartin program, obviously meritless to Sartin, Bradshaw and BTY I never heard Brohammer mention it either. The match-up within the program supersedes it. Additionally using the last line for a Fulcrum is another farce because as with selecting lines a horse could have ran at the wrong class, distance, surface or it was a race before or after a layoff. Not a true representation of what may occur today. Simply a waste of time which should be spent on evaluation of top contenders both by their readouts and their past performances. Use it if your bored, have time to spare, oh well I guess it does beat picking your nose. Mitch44 |
05-27-2019, 01:23 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The Fulcrum
As long as the haters hate they will be blinded.
Mitch, The fulcrum is not anything like BLBL and VDC It's simply a numerical rating of the fastest pace in the last race The fastest pace in the last race is a Bradshaw tool BTW At one time Ted was working on adding a fulcrum rating to RDSS, I think he had trouble , not with the concept, but how to program the variants Last edited by Bill V.; 05-27-2019 at 01:46 PM. Reason: Positive energy |
05-27-2019, 01:26 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Here is a strong fulcrum
This is a key horse for me
The 7 in race 9 should control the early pace |
05-27-2019, 02:33 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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Bill as long as the closed minded remain so, they will remain blind to success.
At the 1990 seminar at Saratoga the specific question was asked about the Fulcrum to which Bradshaw replied he doesn't use it and "does not believe in it." In fact Bradshaw time again always placed emphasis on the fact that; "The race starts when the gate opens not at the SC." How conveniently that is left out, also the fact that the 1st call / Fr has a tremendous effect on the race and match up. Sartin also placed emphasis on all 3 Fractions and said it wasn't pace handicapping if the 1st Fr wasn't included. He evolved and the use of all 3 Fr's propelled his programs to much greater heights plus creating more factors that are still used in the 7 Primary Factors. I.e. FX,TT & HE, also was a great help to determine deceleration between FR's for V/DC. I'm well aware that the fulcrum is nothing like BLBL & V/DC, as the fulcrum will never produce the winners that BLBL & V/DC produces. No "The Hat's" match up began at the 1st call / 1st FR and still does within todays RDSS. BTW the program match up was originally told to Bradshaw by Sartin. Bradshaw took it to greater heights then any other students of his. Today's RDSS program does not in any way start at the SC for the match up. Sartin also said that projecting a race and getting the woinner are two entirely different things. Bill have a great holiday and I wish you many winners today my friend. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 05-27-2019 at 02:35 PM. |
05-27-2019, 03:35 PM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thanks Mitch
Same to you, So far all my bets have yet to run, SA has a nice card, I have 2 pick 3's going .
Mitch I really hope you don't think that the EPR rating starts with the horses stopping and then starting after the second call, Your argument against the fulcrum is flawed There is no EPR rating or fulcrum without the first fraction. That comes right out of the original PMTR hardbound copy, The one with Doc as an auther. If a horse runs a 21 first fraction and a 23-second fraction He runs a 44-second call or EPR He gets a 100 EPR phase 1 rating Now what is he going to do in the 3rd fraction? well if he generally runs 88-92 EPRs and there is another horse in the race that generally runs 93-96 EPRS The 100 EPR is the fulcrum, therefore the pace will be wicked fast. But now I look at the 3rd fraction, and I can bet with confidence that the 100 EPR (fulcrum) is toast The fulcrum on measures 1 thing the expected 2nd call POR period But there is no EPR or secound call with out the first fraction figured into it |
05-27-2019, 04:59 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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Good luck at SA and with your P-3's Bill.
Stopping and starting at the SC? I've watched many races and yet to see that one. The horse that has the lead at the 1stCall may not be the same horse that has it at the SC. The 1st call does have a cause and effect which is why both of the great wizards of the matchup ( Sartin & Bradshaw) do the match up starting with the 1st call and not the SC. Sartin's best stuff includes all 3 FR's as does the present day RDSS. Now what is he going to do in the 3rd fraction? Well what I'm going to do is follow Sartin teachings and let the computer figure that out. He recommended not taking into the 3rd Fr because of the Huey effect and most not being able to properly carry it that far into a race. Again you fail to account for the 1st FR. BTY I took a quick look at your 9th at Mth. While the 9 horse does have the ability to lead it appears that is against his ESP, therefore doubtful at best. Then again just because a horse has the lead at the SC does not make him a winner. Being in the lead at the SC is somewhat a misnomer in racing. What's more important is how he obtained the lead or earned it so to speak. Horses that don't carry their speed into the 2nd FR are false Early types. Projected POR is pointless to getting actual winners, or in other words they don't pat for POR predications but they do pay for winners. Again best of luck today Bill, Mitch44 |
05-28-2019, 05:57 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
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I think that people who like the Fulcrum and who don't are right. It's a matter of personal taste and success. Some of us can do great without and some can do great with it.
More han one way to skin the parimutuel cat. Best to all. Chuck |
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