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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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12-02-2022, 09:54 PM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 311
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Quote:
Hi Tim, Everyone's records show them different things, so I do not know if what I see in my records is true of what other people see in their own records. Having said that, these vector records are showing me patterns that are helping me to get horses that I have never gotten before. It is not the vector graph itself that is important to me, but the relationship between the fraction from the PoH divided by the fraction from the PoR. This gives three numbers that show how that horse, in its paceline, fared against the pace of the race from that paceline. For me, this seems to be an even stronger description of energy distribution than the %med. The PoH is simply the velocity the horse ran, with no relation to anything else. The Segment page is Howard's dream race concept laid out on the screen. Neither is the same as the vectors. If I am doing a poor job describing Howard's work, I apologize, I have been reading the follow ups and it made sense to me. Probably because Howard did a better job describing it in the follow ups than I am doing trying to describe it to you. |
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12-02-2022, 11:49 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 311
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Found this in Follow Up #69
This is something I just came across in issue 69, where Mel Schrawder talks about how he used the vectors to confirm whether a #1 BL/BL horse that was going off as an underlay was a profitable bet. He references Howard's vector patterns from follow up 57.
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12-03-2022, 07:19 AM | #13 |
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Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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The direction for improvement is forward thinking not looking to the rear. This stuff was deleted because better things came along, and it just didn't measure up.
This was in the Match Up Manuel published approx. 1987 with a red cover. It does not hold a candle to later developments such as BLBL, V/DC etc. There is always improvement for the better with forward thinking. This Vector Graph only considers the horses's line and not the all-important Match UP of all the contenders. Today's Match Up will be different. Additionally, a horse changes its matter of running based on the Match Up. I.e, an EP may run E, EP or P depending on what it must do to win in today's Match Up. It's still an E type horse. Note: not all can do this, but many can. There is much danger and frustration in reading Follow Ups material that has been superseded with more proficient later developments. One can see the same stuff with proper interpretation of the Velocity POH screen. The Dream Race has far surpassed all these earlier endeavors into Pace. and achieved greater success. Onward, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 12-03-2022 at 07:33 AM. |
12-03-2022, 12:26 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,164
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Ted
That really looks good. Would looking at the incremental graph be the same as that in seeing how they match up in the race, I do like the numbers though. Jeff |
12-03-2022, 06:30 PM | #15 | |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 485
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The + signs?
Quote:
How dis you get those + signs in the PP's for Jemography? Jon |
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12-04-2022, 12:58 AM | #16 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,898
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Quote:
Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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12-04-2022, 10:27 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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One of the problems with this is that any horses that goes wire to wire will always get the best rating, be it 100 for each Fraction or zero deviation from best and all zeros. Wire to wire horses can have very poor 3rd FR's. or they can have low Total Energy. In this particular case its # 2 on Tot. Energy, but that gets lost when looking at all those zeros.
Now how many would have looked at Tot. Energy. In all honesty I doubt few if any, most and if included will get fixated on zeros being best. It has a tendency to mislead, not a good situation. 2. As I said this is from a previous Match Up and not reflected of the Match Up today. 3. As far as which line is a plus or better, the + is redundant because one can get the same line using the best Preceptor in conjunction with distance and surface. 4. One of the problems with RDSS and all previous Sarti Programs is an overload of data which leads to confusion or paralysis of analysis. I'm really for eliminating stuff that really serves no purpose within the program to lead one more quickly towards success and the right areas of concentration. I'm sure Sartin if alive would get rid of much of this noise and minutia. These detours or roadblocks prevent many from ever completing a successful journey. My solution is to work around all this noise and keying in on data of value. I mine for nuggets not flakes of gold. Mitch44 |
12-04-2022, 10:57 AM | #18 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,164
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Good points Mitch, hope your doing well
Jeff |
12-04-2022, 11:14 AM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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I am Shoe and thanks. Best of health and wealth to you Jeff.
Mitch44 |
12-04-2022, 12:11 PM | #20 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 311
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Quote:
Would you throw out %med for being a relic and not having any relation to total energy or final time or whatever? Like %med, these numbers show HOW the horse ran against its paceline. With 3 numbers (one for each fraction) they are just slightly more descriptive than the one number in %med. When Howard created BL/BL he chastised people again and again for not understanding that they were not linear. Not everyone understands every corollary or piece of information and that is fine. What I love most about RDSS is that Ted is giving ALL of us the information that allows us to win. I personally do not use the RX ratings or the Perceptor stuff. In my handicapping they do not show a profit and I do not understand how they are generated or what they are good for. But just because I do not use them or I do not show a profit with them, does not mean I have a right to demand Ted leave them out. That would be pretty egotistical. What about the people that do like them and do use them? %Early goes back to 1981 in the methodology. %med replaced %Early at the end of the 80's. These vector numbers came about when Howard wanted to do fractals and chaos math, and like %med being a better replacement than the old %early, these were a better replacement for %med. %med helped me eliminate some horses and elevate others, these are doing that even better. If you do not understand these numbers or want to use them, no one is holding a gun to your head and trying to make you wealthier, just do not use them. Dan |
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