Limits of the Methodology?/ Cheap races

[shoeless]

If that's what you believe fine with me

[Charlie D]

It's not a matter of belief Jeff, it's reality


A trainer with a 25% 30% win strike rate means the other 75% 70% of runners lose,


So you have someone who trains more losers than winners, why?? because they place their horses in the wrong races most of the time

[For The Lead]

to: BJennet and chris

obviously you are doing something wrong.

you don't have to be playing grade 1 races in order to win.

[chris]

to: For The lead.

Of course you're absolutely correct; I usually don't know what I'm doing, just didn't think it was that obvious.

Regards,
Chris

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by chris

non winners of two lifetime

Curious if anyone has done a workup of these specific races using Howard's guidelines of best of last 3, 7.5 blf as max. Talking minimum of 200-250 races specifically for nw2l.

Also using the TM download as data source and advanced Methodology software:
1) Synthesis
2) Validator
3) Validator 2
4) Validator 3
5) Validator 4
6) Rdss in Validator mode
Talking specific races where NO horse has won beside his maiden win. Not these multi condition jobs.

Hiding to top 5 total energy and primary line score and tracking % of winners top 5.

Fwiw here were yesterdays and todays.

safe weekend

3/7:
beu-2.7
ct-8
ded-4.7.10
fg-1.5.10
gg-9
haw-9
lrl-2
op-6
pen-1.4
pha-4.8
sun-7.12
tam-6
tup-1
tp-2.6

3/6:
*aqu-1
*ct-5.9
*ded-5.10
*fg-1
*gp-2
*haw-2.3.8
*mnr-2.3.9
*op-8
*sa-2.6
*sun-9.11.12
*tam-5
*tup-9
*tp-6

[JEFF KENT]

In ,my experience doing multi thousands of races,synt.-val. 1-val-man.-val 4
they are superior,as long as same surface,track, similar dist.,avoid long lay
offs,?? cond. horses,and projections.
" IDEAL RACE= HAS 10-12 ENTRIES SAME DIST. SAME TRACK,WEAK
FAVORITE,MOST ENTRIES HAVE RACED RECENTLY 45 DAYS OR SO
THEN USE DOCS GUIDE LINES, "YOU CANT LOSE IN THE LONG RUN"

JEFF KENT

[shoeless]

Here's reality for you this horse pops today at 29-1 at Tampa going wire to wire.The trainer uses the oldest trick in the book taking a distance horse cutting it back in distance then stretching it back out.

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff
can you tell me the race number and horse's name

[Charlie D]

The trainer stats tell the story Jeff

Sprint to route 85% lose
Claiming 86% lose
Routes 87% lose
No Class Change 88% lose

If i or you throw enough Darts, we will hit bulls eye a few times and end up with a similar %

[Charlie D]

Anyway Jeff, this is not worth bothering with really, as you stated earlier if it's what i believe then fine, if you believe different, then fine

Lets try and make some money from what we each believe is the reality

Good Skill