Picking Contenders & Pacelines

[Lt1]

FTL with regards to your answer to Vderdak I would like to add that not all routes are run around 2 turns For example at Aqu 8f races on the main track are run out of the shute around 1 turn and at Bel most of the commonly run route dists on the dirt are around 1 turn. As to a sprinter going long I look to make sure he can't route. If I remember correctly if a sprinter is 5 lenghts better at the second call then all the routers in the field it is a threat to win.Enjoy reading your post.
Tim

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Lt1

FTL with regards to your answer to Vderdak I would like to add that not all routes are run around 2 turns For example at Aqu 8f races on the main track are run out of the shute around 1 turn and at Bel most of the commonly run route dists on the dirt are around 1 turn. As to a sprinter going long I look to make sure he can't route. If I remember correctly if a sprinter is 5 lenghts better at the second call then all the routers in the field it is a threat to win.Enjoy reading your post.
Tim

You can also add Arlington Park to the extremely short list of thoroughbred race tracks that have one turn routes.

Since the vast majority of tracks have two turn routes, I thought it appropriate to address that group, rather than the handful of tracks that have one turn routes.

This was a good "heads up" on your part. Thanks.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by vderdak

Can you explain the guideline rule regarding all sprint pp's in a route race, I'm not familar with it and I often include sprinters, I would have included the #1 horse, 2nd race back at 7F, thanks.

Another member saw your post and wrote to me asking for more information on the subject. I thought it would be good information for everyone. The following are his questions and my answers.

He wanted to know the win stats for ...
1 - horses whose last two races were sprints and today's race is a route. Answer=11%

2 - horses whose last three races were sprints and today's race is a route. Answer=11%

3 - horses whose last two races were routes and today's race is a sprint. Answer=9%

4 - horses whose last three race were routes and today's race is a sprint. Answer=9%

All the answers were rounded either up or down.

Just remember a little piece of advice from "Doc".

[vderdak]

Mountainer Race #2 04/08/13 - #2 horse owns 1st and 2nd fraction for my contenders 2,4,6, & 8, fades big time in stretch last race, goes off 5/1 today, I loved him, he wins going away!

[atkinsrr]

Race tracks with one turn miles: Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Belmont, Churchill, Arlington, all others are 2 or more turns except Ellis Park..Ellis miles start in a turn ..very unfair to outside posts

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by vderdak

Mountainer Race #2 04/08/13 - #2 horse owns 1st and 2nd fraction for my contenders 2,4,6, & 8, fades big time in stretch last race, goes off 5/1 today, I loved him, he wins going away!

hello vderdak

Can you give a short comment on your thoughts for these 4 contenders
and selected pace lines

Thanks
Bill

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by atkinsrr

Race tracks with one turn miles: Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Belmont, Churchill, Arlington, all others are 2 or more turns except Ellis Park..Ellis miles start in a turn ..very unfair to outside posts

hello Atkinsrr
Laurel runs their mile races out of the 7.5 furlong chute with a second
finish line

[vderdak]

Bill V.

Here are my thoughts on the race - Mnr #2 04/08/13 MC5

I actually meant to post this under Why Not Maidens

#1 - out - shows nothing last race
#2 - Contender - last race - up close first two calls
#3 - out - shows nothing last race
#4 - out - shows nothing last race, I said I chose this horse, meant #5
#5 - contender - last race - up close first two calls
#6 - contender - last race - finished within 4.5 lengths
#7 - out - last race over 90 days ago
#8 - contender - first two calls marginal up close - put in to see
#9 - out - only 1st call up close
#10 - out - 1st time starter

So I had 4 contenders, 2, 5, 6, and 8
#2 ranked 1st on both fraction 1 and 2, 1st EPR
It looked like the last two races he fought for the lead, just didn't get it, no confirmed early runner in the race except for the #8 which I didn't forgive his last race so at 5/1 to me he was an excellent wager at the odds.

[For The Lead]

Since I started posting in this thread, the real focus has been on picking contenders and pacelines ( as the title of the thread implies) NOT on picking winners. When using a solid contender selection and paceline method, the winners will come.
If one uses a consistent method of picking contenders and pacelines, they will, over the long run, get much better results than if the contender and paceline selection method is all over the place.
This is not to say that if you follow the contender and paceline selection method I have used throughout this thread (and others) that you will have the winner among your contenders in each and every race you handicap. You won't. I don't know of any that will.
What you will learn from following my posts are the type of winners that you will come across from time to time that make it all worthwhile. The following race is one of them.
My suggestion is to read this example race and decide for yourself whether or not you would have had this winner either by wagercapping or handicapping.
I will make comments on each horse. You will notice that the guidelines I use are the same as I always use.
I'll post the horses first, then the usual screen shots I post and finally the result chart.

The obvious line to use here is the last line. Every other line is too old. (more than 90 days) This is the problem horse for most people. Why? Because the last line comes from DeD, which is a "bullring" track. Personally, I don't mix bullring lines with lines from standard one mile track lines. In addition, this horse is moving up in class from 5k to 10k. I'll leave it up to the reader to decode, I just know I wouldn't bet this horse.


After being OFF for over 500 days, this horse has come back to break its' maiden (2 back) and run a good second in its' last race. I'll use the last line.


This horse has only one race in the last 90 days. It is a poor effort at a class half of what it will be running for today. I will not give this horse a line and will not consider it a contender.


With 6 races in the last 87 days, this has been the busiest horse in the race.
It ran a good second in it's last race, so I'll use the last line.


This is the class horse in the race. There is just one problem. The horse has no form. In addition, it doesn't have any race at today's distance and surface. This horse will not get a line and will not be considered a contender.

[For The Lead]

Here is another horse that has been meeting better horses, however, it hasn't shown anything against those horses. It has one race in the last 90 days and it was a poor effort. So was the effort in it's older race 2 back. This horse will not get a line and will not be considered a contender.


This horse has two lines to choose from, line 2 and 3. Both lines show poor efforts, so this horse will not get a line and will not be considered a contender.


#8 was scratched

This horse does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at today's distance and surface in the last 90 days. Therefore it will not get a line and will not be considered a contender.


This horse hasn't had a race in the last 90 days, so it will not get a line and it will not be considered a contender.