"The Hat's" Power Lines

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

A "Power Line" is the fastest pace of race showing where the horse finished competitively. Regardless of track or where it is in the past performances.

• Richie, you clearly defined Power Line, the above quote is a good one. When you get the chance, can you define "Power Move". From your examples, I'm thinking a "Power Move" is a line a where a horse finished competitively AND the move or biggest move that gets him CLOSEST to the lead at any call , with Pace of Race within the reason of competitiveness of TODAYS projected pace.
• And horse's with MULTIPLE Power Moves, which one to choose, Thanks Richie.

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

• Richie, . When you get the chance, can you define "Power Move". Thanks

VoodooFan

A Power Move is a QUICK gain of POSITIONS between calls

Power move here is 2c-sc with a move of 6-2

[RichieP]

here the move is 2c-sc
move of 4-2

[RichieP]

Here the move is 1c-2c
5-2

[RichieP]

Here the move is 2c-sc
4-1

[RichieP]

Here the move is 1c-2c
8-3

[VoodooFan]

Very nice examples, Richie, Thank You. From that last example, I can see the horse doesn't necessarily have to FINISH competitively,"IF" that's ALL the horse has available, I suppose. Clear illustrations. VoodooFan

[mufasa]

Great examples on the Power Moves provided Richie. As with anything else in handicapping an assumed better PM is not the end all in win selection. Look at what happened in the Haskell this last Sunday Curlin IMO had a better PM in 2nd race back then Any Given Saturday did in its last race but lost to AGS. Curlin had a more powerful PM against faster time in that 2nd race back (The Preakness) and furthermore in its 6th race back it showed that it could definitely handle the projected pace which was for the most part 1.10. So no matter what no one factor ever stands alone and other considerations still come into play in this very challenging game that we play.

Thanks,

Robert

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by THE HAT

Power Line And Power Moves

Rich has explained the meaning of "Power Lines" and have marked them for all of the horses in the 11th at Delaware. It just happens that the last line is the is the "power line" for most of the horses in today’s Mile and One Quarter race, but the "power line" may be anywhere in their past performance.

I used the "Power Lines" on all the horse to match them in today’s race and very quickly see that the One, Six and Seven are Early, because they only win on or near the lead. The race will run "other than early." The Nine was scratched and I eliminate the Early horses, but I use the One horse’s "Power Line" for today’s pace.

The One, Two, Four and Nine are from the same Tandem. The four horse is ahead of the Two throughout most of the race, so I eliminate the Two. I eliminate the Three and Eight, because the are slower than today’s pace. This Leaves me with the Four and Five. The "Power Lne" for the Five is from a one turn mile, which is hard for me to use. The One horse’s pace of 110.4 is equal to the 110.4 on the Five and should be ahead of him.

"Power Moves" are moves that horses make during the race that show the can over take other horse. Many horses shows more than " power move" during a race. (Example 9-4-1-1.) The Four horse moves from fourth to second position and gains lengths. Although, I like better "Power Moves" the race is longer today and the Four horse should win the race and reverse the Tandem.

First of all I apologize for the late posting. I finally got some quiet time yesterday to work my way through the analysis and I was confused on a couple of points.

1. With respect to the elimination of the 3 and the 8 for being slow. No problem with the 8. However, the match up pace was from the #1 horse and was: (in tenths) 47.5-110.9-136.3-149.4

The power line from the #3 was 47.3-111.2-136.2-149.1. see attachment. Only the 2c is slower than the match up pace, all other fractions are the same. I recognize that #3 is either SP or S, but does the 2c time alone determine this horse's ability to compete in this race? #3 gained both position and lengths at the 3 calls prior to finish. I need help here. this appears to be a very finely distinguished analysis of slow vs. fast, one that I cannot logically make at this time. Jim or Richie, can you shed a little more light on the analytical progress thats going on here or perhaps more precisely where the #3 effectively loses contact with the other contenders?

2. 2nd point of confusion. In discussing the relationship between 1 turn miles and 2 turn route times I understand the logic because 1 turns are usually faster. However, the comparison was stated as being made to each horse's Power Line and the Power Line from the #5 is from a 2c of 109.4, but it appears that Jim's analysis is now using paceline 1 with a 2c of 110.4. did we switch powerlines in the description of the analysis somewhere?

Thanks for the clarifications

[THE HAT]

The Three horse is slower at the second call and will be behind the pace of today’s race, and behind the winner today. Competitive yes, able to win, no. I am looking for winners not competitors.

Yes I changed running line to evaluate Ice Cool Kitty but I did look at the "power Line." As stated I have a hard time using the one turn mile time. Regardless, I did not like the horses chance in the race, especially if the last race is more at today’s pace. He will be behind the winner ever call regardless of the running line used.