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Breeders' Cup 2014 - Saturday Nov 1 Saturday Breeders' Cup Races - Discussion |
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03-04-2016, 02:41 PM | #31 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Reviewing the Matchup and afterthought
Quote:
Originally, I concluded with Shared Belief, California Chrome and Bayern as my final contenders. Bayern's last paceline stood out as he "blitzed"second turn in 23.0 flat followed with another 23.6 fraction from the 6F marker to the mile marker. (American Pharoah ran almost the same fractions in the 2015 Travers Stakes while losing to Keen Ice in the race. Hmmm, both horses are trained by Bob Baffert) In re-evaluating the race, I zoomed in on the Pacific Classic race won by Shared Belief. Toast of New York finished second in the race but let's focus on the mile part of the race as dictated by Jim Bradshaw. Bradshaw suggested that it's best to evaluate marathon races like the Classic by using the mile time of the races. Many are aware that mile and 1/4 races are not great pacelines to evaluate the match up in many Sartin programs. So let's focus on the mile part of the race and not on the whole race. The contenders: the highlighted pacelines were my original pacelines with the exception of overlooking Toast of New York. Let's review the 2014 Pacific Classic but let's focus only on the mile time of the race as suggested by Jim Bradshaw. |
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03-04-2016, 02:52 PM | #32 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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I used Thoromation to evaluate the race; and using the highlighted pacelines:
Bayern- last paceline California Chrome- 3rd paceline using only the mile fractions of the Preakness Shared Belief- 2nd pacelne using only the mile fractions of the Pacific Classic Toast of New York-last paceline using only the mile fractions of the Pacific Classic The first screen came up SP--no surprise with Bayern's great Sustained paceline the exdc screen and the Thoromation screen Jim Bradshaw knew what he was talking about!! P.S. My respects for the passing of Shared Belief |
03-04-2016, 03:07 PM | #33 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Inquiry objection after the start of the race.
We are all aware of the incidents that happened after the starting gate opened and the objections of the stewards' decisions. But my posts, two years later, are about the importance of Jim Bradshaw's Marathon Matchup method by using the mile fractions for the match up analyses.
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03-05-2016, 04:12 PM | #34 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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mile fractions within mile and 1/4 distance races
Here is the pp of American Pharoah
Now we compare the mile fractions of American Pharoah from the 2015 Travers Stakes with Bayern's race in the 2014 Pennsylvania Derby. The pace fractions and turn time are eerily "Identical." APharoah: 48.1 for 4 furlongs followed by a 23.2 turn time; followed by a 23.6 fraction to the mile marker Bayern: 47.4 for 4 furlongs followed by a 23.0 turn time; followed by a 23.6 fraction to the mile marker Anyways, we move on...thanks for reading... Last edited by lone speed; 03-05-2016 at 04:16 PM. Reason: corrected fractions |
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