Santa Anita Handicap...Saturday Mar.2

[lone speed]

Alright, Santa Anita Big Cap is here....it us not a race that it once was with the Breeders Cup and the Ten Million World Cup in Dubai coming up...

I will post the pps...later..any thoughts....

Bill Lyster....this is your specialty using Hat's Marathon approach focusing on the best mile times.....I have a question regarding Richard's Kid mile time from last year's Breeders' Cup Classic....16 lengths back....do we use this line...

Is Game on Dude the lone early...??? Will Ron the Greek repeat as back to back winner of the Big Cap...?? Any other up and coming fresh horse??

Any thoughts??

[Bill Lyster]

Well, you should look at or compute from other distances what the mile times are including beaten lengths. I prefer using 10 furlong races mile splits, the same from 9 furlong races, then the 8.5 races and then mile races. I "think" mile race times are the least predictive unless that is all you have. You also have to look at running position and lengths gained.

I would not be too enthused about looking at a race from a year ago, especially if the horse has run recently and you can compute a mile time from the PPs. but if the pace of today's race does not show up in the PPs, except for that race a year ago, take the mile time and #lengths/5 and add it to the mile time. 16 lengths would be 3.2 seconds, not likely to make it a contender unless you are projecting a 133-134 mile out of the leader!!

Try to find the fastest early horse and do your best to determine a reasonable 6 furlong time that this horse can reproduce. Remember that the winner in the Big Cap, like the Derby has been on the lead or within about 2-3 positions and 3-4 lengths in the stretch/mile call in almost every race at this distance, so unless there is an unmitigated speed dual up front you will not be looking at horses that run 10-7-5 more like 1-1-1, 2-2-1, 3-2-1, 5-3-2, 6-4-2, i.e, early and/or presser types that gain ground and position against a reasonable pace. Remember too, that the calls shown above stop at the stretch call - you are showing ability to close to the stretch call here. (In the off chance that you have to use a mile time include the stretch call, but be wary of these types without any other longer races.) With Game on Dude in there a reasonable pace is pretty much assured

I just rank the fastest 5 or so mile times from the longer races and then look to see who is closest to the lead, who is making up ground and positions, trying to determine who gets first run if/when the leader starts to fade. Unless they have done it before or have a super huge early lead, need to lead types with any pressure fold, so usually you are looking for those just off the lead.

One other thing here. classy horses win classy races. You don't want to go too far back on horses that have not successfully run at the graded level of this race. Maybe an emergency allowance horse off its last race or two, but mostly horses proven at this level.

Good luck tomorrow,

Bill

[lone speed]

Bill L.

Thanks for the quick reply and detailed explanations on how to apply the steps in marathon races.

Yes, I am well aware of the overwelming data to be in front of the leaders by the top of the stretch in this race and the Kentucky Derby....

So far, I only see Handsome Mike as the other early speed to put any early pressure on Game on Dude....Handsome Mike is train by O'Neil as is Richard's Kid so it is obvious who is the rabbit in this race....

At a quick glance and some initial pacelines entries into Thoromation, this race came up Exdc.with Game on Dude on top of Ron the Greek as the top two on Exdc....

I will check to see if any value exist in this race or else it might be better to move onward to another race...

[PeteC]

Hey Lone Speed-

Thanks for putting up this race. I see Game On Dude as the dominant early in the Big 'Cap. If someone pressures him too much then he may be vulnerable but I won't bet on it. I'll have to just watch this one.


Here is an earlier race on the card too if anyone wants to match it up. I'll look at it closer in the morning.

SA Race 3 - moved to this Thread for further discussion, including BRIS PPs: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9032

Pete

[Bill Lyster]

Really only two Grade 1 horses here the 1 and 9.

Mile times:
1 136.1, running 5-5-1, 5th best
2 136.3, running 1-2-2, 8th best
5 135.5, running 3-3-2, 3rd best
8 136.9, running 5-6-5, 9th best
9 135, running 2-1-2, best
9 136.3 running 2-2-1, 6th best
9 135.3 running 3-1-1, 2nd best
10 136.5 running 4-4-1, 7th best
10 136.0 running 7-4-3, 4th best

Game on Dude has the top two times from just off pace, which should kill Handsome Mike. Ron the Greek closes on GOD and Stephenotse and Guilt Trip might be Grade 1 horses, not having failed enough in the graded ranks to be sure.

Clubhouse at a price ran against 110.5 losing to GOD closing from off the pace and if he is getting better might be true surprise.

My top three are GOD, RTG and Guilt Trip to win. I will post the BL screen on next post.

[Bill Lyster]

The BL screen:

The price plays are the 10 and 5 and some might even argue about the 8.

If one of the grade 1 horses runs out, could be a nice price.

Good luck to all.

[lone speed]

Bill...
Thank you very much for your valuable input with regards to the mile times...it was your consistent posting of the mile times that inspired an idea of cutting off the mile times as instructed by Bradshaw...

Thanks Pete for jumping in ....

I will look at the race tonight...but a couple of thoughts...

Game on Dude ....owns the first call off the last paceline...I see a revised virtual line of 1:47:1 for this matchup...

I don't see any horse that might pair up and jump up 5 lengths here...it looks like a race among the previous mile and 1/4 winners...

I know that Bill mentioned that Richards Kid comes off a race that he runs from 16 lengths behind..but I can't ignore that huge move of 5 lengths gained...that's a sub 23 n change move from that Breeders Cup line.....I will stand on an island with this focus....

Thanks again....

[Bill Lyster]

Not to run you off this guy, but...RK has not been competitive at this level since winning a grade 3 last July. After the Pacific Classic he has phoned in terrible form. the 11 lengths back at the mile call of the Breeders Cup translates to 136.9, the ninth best time at the mile which is going to be about 9.5 lengths behind GOD, not to mention the five other horses with better mile times that do not have to close from the moon (or is it Mars!).

Adjusting to 1.25 miles gets a 202.5 final time at 6.4 sec per half furlong. GOD's last adjusting is 200.1 and a couple back is 159.5. Both of GOD's lines make RK a 10+ length loser off his best mile time. RK would have to run 23.1 in the last quarter off that 136.9 time just to get to 2.00 flat final time.

Not for me, this time.

Bill

[lone speed]

Bill...

I want to thank you for your time and I value your opinion especially with regard to Richard's Kid...

I was curious about that line.....I was trying to keep an open mind...but I do see your points about too far back and too much ground to make up....This one seems to prefer poly or turf...

[lone speed]

Here are the pps of the Big Cap...