Keeneland Friday 10/14- TM 101 Race Class - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-12-2011, 04:13 PM

Here is the 8th from Keeneland on Friday going 6.5f on the Polytrack. Very best of luck/skill to all

RichieP · 10-12-2011, 04:15 PM

...

RichieP · 10-12-2011, 04:17 PM

,,.

Bill Lyster · 10-12-2011, 07:30 PM

Lots of speed but the best is 7, the FPLR, at 22-45.1-57.5, a race in which this horse was 3rd in a Grade 3 race. Best placing in highest class race in this field.

The 2 has run some fast internal fractions competitive with the 7 and has shown it can win from 4th or 5th. Has also shown tendency to press too closely and so two possible outcomes; the 2 burns out from running too close or the 2 pressures the 7 into faltering (note the 7 had lead in last but did not win at that level. Today he should sit behind all the speed and hope to catch the 7.

The 1 from line 5, a 100K stake showed ability to close against faster paces, and beat half the field that day. Always have trouble backing a Martian

primary pick is the 7, next the 2 and I will box the 7-2-1 and look for some good odds in my top three choices.

Bill

PeteC · 10-14-2011, 12:04 PM

I like the 7 as the dominant early...

SilentRun · 10-14-2011, 01:31 PM

I LIKE THE 7-2-1. The 7 will probably go off as the low odds favorite considering his M/L is 2/1 and he is a speedball and will be tough to beat.

But the value bets would be the 1 & 2 and I think the 2 especially has a good chance to nail the 7.

Ernie

Capcondo · 10-14-2011, 01:34 PM

The 7 in here looks scary off the last race. But, I don't think the pace will go like the last race. I'm going to use the 7's second back on the dirt at Saratoga: 22.6 45.4 1:10.6.

Other contenders:

2: Presser. Keeneland 4 back the horse goes 22.8 45.8 1:09.7 and has two grass races against fast paces where he finsihed well.

3: Early horse on the grass. Splits from las don't match the two.

These are my only contenders. Sitting off the lead, I think the two will benefit from the 6.5 furlongs and he is my pick.

Tim

mikesal57 · 10-12-2011, 11:36 PM

2 & 11 for me

RichieP · 10-13-2011, 06:14 PM

My eval lines and contenders.

Something about the #11 hitting my eye, last was a 6f bid against quick spilts at Del and shows strong closes deep in pps as a 2yr old against quick fractions. Solid poly 5f work, play at 6/1 or higher.

Tossing the ml fav #7 as he has not won on either turf or poly. If he wins so be it.

RAW

Very best of luck/skill everyone

Heading to Vermont for the weekend after work tomorrow with Karen to see the fall foliage and hang at a quaint

bed and breakfast (touring a winery there too! MMMM)

raceman5 · 10-14-2011, 08:49 AM

7-6-2

Bob

10-12-2011, 04:15 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	... Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-12-2011, 04:17 PM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	,,. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-12-2011, 07:30 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	before scratches Lots of speed but the best is 7, the FPLR, at 22-45.1-57.5, a race in which this horse was 3rd in a Grade 3 race. Best placing in highest class race in this field. The 2 has run some fast internal fractions competitive with the 7 and has shown it can win from 4th or 5th. Has also shown tendency to press too closely and so two possible outcomes; the 2 burns out from running too close or the 2 pressures the 7 into faltering (note the 7 had lead in last but did not win at that level. Today he should sit behind all the speed and hope to catch the 7. The 1 from line 5, a 100K stake showed ability to close against faster paces, and beat half the field that day. Always have trouble backing a Martian primary pick is the 7, next the 2 and I will box the 7-2-1 and look for some good odds in my top three choices. Bill

10-12-2011, 11:36 PM	#8
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	2 & 11 for me __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

10-13-2011, 06:14 PM	#9
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	My eval lines and contenders. Something about the #11 hitting my eye, last was a 6f bid against quick spilts at Del and shows strong closes deep in pps as a 2yr old against quick fractions. Solid poly 5f work, play at 6/1 or higher. Tossing the ml fav #7 as he has not won on either turf or poly. If he wins so be it. RAW Very best of luck/skill everyone Heading to Vermont for the weekend after work tomorrow with Karen to see the fall foliage and hang at a quaint bed and breakfast (touring a winery there too! MMMM) Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-12-2011, 04:13 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Keeneland Friday 10/14- TM 101 Race Class Here is the 8th from Keeneland on Friday going 6.5f on the Polytrack. Very best of luck/skill to all Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-14-2011, 12:04 PM	#5
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	I like the 7 as the dominant early...

10-14-2011, 01:31 PM	#6
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	I LIKE THE 7-2-1. The 7 will probably go off as the low odds favorite considering his M/L is 2/1 and he is a speedball and will be tough to beat. But the value bets would be the 1 & 2 and I think the 2 especially has a good chance to nail the 7. Ernie

10-14-2011, 01:34 PM	#7
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Kee #8 The 7 in here looks scary off the last race. But, I don't think the pace will go like the last race. I'm going to use the 7's second back on the dirt at Saratoga: 22.6 45.4 1:10.6. Other contenders: 2: Presser. Keeneland 4 back the horse goes 22.8 45.8 1:09.7 and has two grass races against fast paces where he finsihed well. 3: Early horse on the grass. Splits from las don't match the two. These are my only contenders. Sitting off the lead, I think the two will benefit from the 6.5 furlongs and he is my pick. Tim

10-14-2011, 08:49 AM	#10
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,363	Keenland 7-6-2 Bob

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