Woodbine 6/17 Race 7

[mikesal57]

match-up race

what are the chances of the #9 wiring this field?

1st lasix and nice work 5/31

mike

[tfm]

King Eddie

[PeteC]

Thanks for posting this race...interesting. I'd have to go OTE but it would be difficult for me to narrow down the field. PASS !

[dlivery]

Pass

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

match-up race

what are the chances of the #9 wiring this field?

1st lasix and nice work 5/31

mike

Mike,

This is a tricky race. By my numbers, the #11 should be on the lead not the not #9, so I doubt he'll wire, but the 9 is closer to the correct e/l. What makes this race difficult is, that except for King Eddie, who seems to lack the necessary TE, none of these animals have ever rated for a win. If the 9 can rate, he should win. If I were playing, I'd go with the 9 and 11 (especially at those odds) to win and play both under the 4 and 10 in exactas. Good luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[mamojica]

This race had me flummoxed. This is one of the more difficult races I worked since I started matching three months ago. I did this one as an exercise and doubt I would actually bet a race like this.

I used as the projected pace #9’s most recent race.

1 – A smidgen too slow, so I eliminated him.
2 – OK
3 – Too slow – out
4 – Kept him as a contender based on his April 12 2009 race
5 – OK
6 – Scratched
7 – Eliminated, for the same reason as the #1
8 – OK
9 – Projected pacesetter
10 – OK
11 – OK
12 – OK

I really didn’t feel too good about eliminating the 1 and 7, but they seemed to be a fifth of a second slower than the horses I kept. In my experience, horses like this have come back to bite me.

In comparing the horses I kept as contenders, the thing that struck me the most were the 1st call times of the #9 Rimouski. I liked how he always ran close to a 21.4. I was most worried about #11, Bold Finale, but Rimouski beat him in the April 18 08 and Nov 16 08 tandems, so I went with Rimouski.

This was a tough race for me to figure out, and I don’t feel too confident of my choice. Unless the odds were good, I would probably pass. If #9’s odds are 6–1 or better as in the morning line, I would make the bet.

Good luck,
Marc

[mikesal57]

thxs guys

the "passes" won this one...

Why and how did the the 9 broke next to last was a mystery to me

then I thought he had a shot by passing 8 horses to the stretch , but then faded

think hes a "watch " for next out?

mike

[Bill Lyster]

Okay, its late but I haven't looked at charts.

1-E, 23-46.2 fought at 23, up by .5 in 46.2
2-P, slow
3-E in his best races; 23-46 from line 9, fought both calls
4-slow
5-slow
7-slow
8-IN
9-E 22.4-45.4 and 21.4 - 45 and 21.4-44.4 last three. never ran close to mdn win so I am not considering that race. Appears to be FPLR from last but is tandem with 10 in last and with 11 in 2nd last. Needed 1 length lead in last and faded.
10-P tandem with 9 from line 2, but pace was slower than todays; fot for lead in 44.4 to lead by hd
11-E, maybe and could be if fresh; two races on lead were 22.3-44.4 and 23.1-46.1 and he faded in both; This one could be presser, as he has pressed some good paces, but always fades; 1/6 life and 0 for last 10. + note - today's pace should be soft relative to last three.
12-Presses slow paces and fades. Out.

Projected pace: The 1 and 3 fought to get to 23, so I think that pushes them to 22.4; the 9 needed to be clear by 1 length at 22.4, so I think this race starts out at 22.3. If 11 runs early he needs a clear lead at 22.3, so first fraction for me is 22.3 or maybe a little better.

2nd call time could go as low as 44.4 if the 11 goes E but only the 9, 10 and 11 have gone that fast; the 9 backed up the 11 needed to be clear by a half and the 10 fought for the lead at 44.4, so my estimate is 45.1 or so, which kills off the 1, 3, 9 and 11. Final time should be in the low 110's.

The 8 has run 4 good races in a row and even tho his best race was his maiden win,all the other horses that ran against 44.4 or 45 were in maiden events as well.

I would take 8 to win and 11 to win place just in case he decides to press. Both horses when pressing run from 3rd to 5th place which is good for the early matchup in this race.

Now I'll peak at the results!

[mikesal57]

Another fine analysis from Bill...but this race did not unfold like we thought..

I will put the #9 horse on my watch list because i thought he ran a hell of a race...what people will miss is the start of this race and the 9 breaking 10th then moved up to 4th by the quarter pole...he even passed 2 more during the race...and then finished 7th...hopefully he'll come back within 2 weeks for me to bet.

thxs guys

mike

[mamojica]

I felt that in this race there were too many horses who were too close to each other in ability. In this 11 horse race, I felt that 8 horses were contenders, and I threw out two of the horses with misgivings. There was only one horse that I threw out without hesitation. That means 10 of the 11 horses met or came very close to the projected pace, a troubling sign right there. Is this what they call a chaos race?

Usually, when I match the field against the projected pace, at least half the field is thrown out. Also, 11 horse fields are uncommon, at least in the tracks that I play most often. If I throw out half of a 7 horse field, that leaves only three or four horses to match, which is a much easier thing to do.

Originally Posted by mamojica

I really didn’t feel too good about eliminating the 1 and 7, but they seemed to be a fifth of a second slower than the horses I kept. In my experience, horses like this have come back to bite me.

This was a tough race for me to figure out, and I don’t feel too confident of my choice. Unless the odds were good, I would probably pass. If #9’s odds are 6–1 or better as in the morning line, I would make the bet.

As it turned out, one of the horses I threw out did end up coming back to bite me. Still, I doubt I would have chosen the 1 over the 9 even if I kept him in as a contender.

I may have even ended up betting the 9, in spite of his final odds of 7-2. I didn't watch the race live, and didn't follow the odds prior to the race. If his odds were 6-1 or 7-1 at a couple of minutes to post, I may have made the bet. This has happened to all of us: I place the bet 3 minutes to post when the odds were acceptable, only to see the odds drop disappointingly low after the race starts.

This was a very contentious race. The first seven horses finished within 2 1/4 lengths of the winner. Can we say any of these horses ran a bad race, or an exceptionally good one? Or did they run as our pre-race matching said they would run: a bunch of closely matched horse, none of whom seemed to have a real edge over the others.

I wasn't impressed with the 9. If he doesn't have the lead, he isn't going to win. And in his last race, he faded after getting the lead. He ran the same way yesterday. He was about a length back until the stretch, and then lost another length by the finish. In order for him to win, he has to get the early lead, and he can't be strongly challenged late either.

The 1 was more impressive, although not enough to put him on my horses to watch list. If he is going to face 1st and 2nd quarter mile times of about 23 and 46, and he can get the lead, bet him. In his only win prior to yesterday, and in yesterday's win, he has shown he can fight for the lead early (1st fraction in both races he was a head in front, and at the 2nd call he was 1/2 length in front). He won’t fold up if challenged, as yesterday’s stretch run showed.

Regards,
Marc