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02-03-2009, 01:06 PM | #1 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Beware the slow early pace lines
One of the things I see in other handicappers all the time is missing
races where the early pace was SLOW. Remember what Huey Mahl used to say: for every unit energy expended early it takes TWO to make up for it late. At many tracks I would extend that to three of four, BUT it is based on some logic the other way as well. Mahl wrote that we should all try and experiment to show how faster or slower early pace affects both people and horses. He says :"Run around your block twice and then have a friend TIME the last 25% of that run each attempt. On the first run, go out very slowly and then run as fast as you can that last 25%. Rest for abut 15 20 minutes and try it again, but THIS time have a 16 year old youngster push you hard the first 25% and then still try your best to come home as fast as you can that ast 25% for the timed section. You WILL be slower in that last 25% after being pushed hard early than when you went out slow early. The answer is fatigue and lactic acid build up. By expending too much energy early you simply have less available late. This is true in the thoroughbred as well: If a horse is not pushed, it will produce late moves that are better than they look. IF you see a great close on a great pace (a la Aldebaran, Turkoman or Lit de Justice) that line QUALIFIES for consideration. On the other hand, if an animal gets the "gift" of a half in a sprint, lets say, in 47 and then comes flying home, that is a BIG FALSE positive. Bottom line: there is much more in the tank if you dd not spend too much early.
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