knowing when chaos is really there

[tompkins]

I believe one of the toughest things to learn in this game is to know when a race has enough confusion in it to pass. The first at Aqueuduct today had many "pretenders" but all of their ratable lines were all in the neighborhood of the 2nd to 4th back and were all going south. IF they don't have lines showing a direction of improvement without signs of trouble in their last several, the FORM cycle is telling you to leave this one alone. Only a single pretender got close in that contest to run second.