Kentucky Derby

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by ClockerDan

You experts make some sense out of that for a rookie like me I go by times, track, jockey,

trainer, workout, distance visual and GOD'S Blessing

Okay, I'll bite...

Clocker Dan ...I will assume that you are a morning workout watcher or timer...

What is your opinion on:

Mohaymen's workouts this week...is he too head strong or he's peaking??

Gun Runner's workouts

Destin's lack of workouts after a 8 week spacing... I count 19 furlongs of recorded workouts since the Tampa Bay Derby with a good chance that Pletcher will get another 5-6 furlongs workout this weekend. This will add up to 24-25 furlongs total of workouts after a two-month freshening...Baffert put in 36 furlongs of workouts into American Pharoah after the Travers Stakes for while aiming for the Breeders Cup.


On workouts, I am waiting for the Charlie Whittingham special:

A stellar workout at 5 furlongs one week from the Derby with a double gallop out....

[ClockerDan]

It's just a nick name my late Dad use to rib me about. Cause every now n then I picked

winners no one else would be even talking about and I played angles and had crazy hunches

That worked out - ie. a manilla envelope can in the mail for me one day and my pops told

me to go to the post office and get him large manilla envelopes --- that weekend a horse

by the name of Manilla was racing at like 34-1 and bingo I nailed it with $50 across the

board. Recently I also had Take Charge Brandi $40 straight up. Not a pro or a clocker

Just love horse racing cause of my Dad. Moyhaman is just fine was settled today and put

his best hoves forward. He's a player for me and I pick Gun Runner on top. Just a hunch -

WATCH out for Oscar Nominated - check those blood lines on both sides - Ramsey needs a

derby horse and is paying his way in. I love the horse ( turf, poly or dirt ) the trainer and

owner / breeder

[ClockerDan]

Danzing Candy and Gun Runner $ 50 perfecta box. With Moyhaman , Mor Spirit and Exaggerator $10 tri box. With Destin, Oscar Nominated and Suddenbreakingnews for $2
superfecta box that's a rookie handicapper and novice picks and I wish everyone a blessing
To come there way. This year is a great betting race, horses in my humble opinion are more equal in speed and distance this year in the 2 previous years stick out horses that were just freaks

[ClockerDan]

That's a 5 horse tri box and add the last three for the superfecta

[ClockerDan]

Superfecta wheel that is

[ClockerDan]

Out about $1000 & change or hopefully GOD Willing make enough to bet the Breeders Cup

[turfsup]

dear clocker dan im just in the process of getting rdss set up with mr craven . years bck i used thoromatiuon an old sartin program that said as i know you use rdss successfully could you if you have done the derby send me the top 4 hores on the sustained screen not your picks but the top 4 sustained if you can this would be helpful im at pizzars@yahoo.com 04 8473225742 thank you turfsup

[DanBoals]

After running RDSS2 on the Derby, this is what I have :

Nyquist - should be in front by first quarter and take it to wire.

Other Contenders :

Creator - best LPR, should be in top 3
Brody's Cause - 2nd best LPR, should be in top 5
Gun Runner - 3, 3, 3 for E/L/CPR which is always a good bet, should be in top 3
Majesto - surprisingly my 2nd best EPR and CPR of the contenders, ???
Exaggerator - 3,3 in TT and Hid, will need to improve to be in top 3

Am looking forward to what others come up with,

Dan

[Ted Craven]

I agree with Dan - it would seem if Nyquist can control the pace, he has the Class and staying power and proven record in G1 events to win it all.

Paceline and Contender methodology (settings on Default, DTV range = +-15):

- best Perceptor in 2016 from G1 or G2 races with a Top 2 finish (prefer a Win). Eliminate as Secondary (or Non-contenders) those outside of the Top 5 BLBL and Rx rank, and having a CSR worse than 5th (worse than 3rd, actually).

2 questions for me: 1) does Mohaymen's last race (lost to both Nyquist and Majesto here) indicate a prior peak, and against inferior horses (i.e. G2 only) - or it it to be forgiven and he to be considered a Contender today. 2) is Destin's ratings from his last G2 race to be accepted as equal to ratings earned by the G1 winners (Nyquist, Creator, Gun Runner)? Or ratings from his G3 win, for that matter - both of which earn him a top 3 berth on BLBL and on Rx.

In Derby contention, I think calibre of previous competition matters (hence G1/G2 wins). So far, that's Nyquist and Mohaymen on top, according to the new CR+ Class Rating.

My Contender groupings: the top group can win. The Second group can finish in the 2nd - 4th spots. I'll be governed by betting odds (if the 20 horse Derby field still works in the testing version of RDSS 2.1).

Good luck everyone!

[Ryan.p.coli]

RDSS really likes the Fountain of Youth, Holy Bull and Tampa Bay derby races and downgrades all the efforts from the Florida Derby.

Interesting cooincidence that all of Nyquist's last 3 races have the exact same energy #'s... especially considering its all over 3 different distances.

Ted- you once told me that a horse only runs as fast as it has to. Maybe he's just a talented lazy colt who hasn't shown his best.